Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

System of crop intensification for more productive,resource-conserving,climate-resilient,and sustainable agriculture: experience with diverse crops in varying agroecologies

With continually increasing demand for food accompanied by the constraints of climate change and the availability and quality of soil and water, the world’s farmers are challenged to produce more food per hectare with less water, and with fewer agrochemical inputs if possible. The ideas and methods of the system of rice intensification which is improving irrigated rice production are now being extended/adapted to many other crops: wheat, maize, finger millet, sugarcane, tef, mustard, legumes, vegetables, and even spices. Promoting better root growth and enhancing the soil’s fertility with organic materials are being found effective means for raising the yields of many crop plants with less water, less fertilizer, reduced seeds, fewer agrochemicals, and greater climate resilience. In this article, we review what is becoming known about various farmer-centred innovations for agroecological crop management that can contribute to agricultural sustainability. These changes represent the emerging system of crop intensification, which is being increasingly applied in Asian, African, and Latin American countries. More research will be needed to verify the efficacy and impact of these innovations and to clarify their conditions and limits. But as no negative effects for human or environmental health have been identified, making these agronomic options more widely known should prompt more investigation and, to the extent justified by results, utilization of these methodologies.     

The Tunisia Wheat Market in the Context of World Price Volatility: A Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Food security is a key objective of agricultural and food policy in Tunisia. The 2007–2008 food crisis highlighted the negative impacts of price volatility on international markets both in terms of food insecurity and budget exposure. Tunisian food subsidy expenditures ranged from $180 million to $710 million in 2006–2010, so volatile world prices meant volatile subsidy costs. Moreover, cereal production in Tunisia still has much instability due to climate conditions, which also influences imports and, consequently, subsidy expenditures. This study applies a structural model to conduct stochastic analyses of trade and policy impacts on food security and budget expenditures in the Tunisian wheat market. The methodology disaggregates durum wheat and soft wheat markets and generates projections of import prices of durum wheat and soft wheat, using projections of world prices provided by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU). The key innovation is the generated stochastic analyses of subsidy costs based on stochastic world price projections and stochastic domestic wheat yields based on historic yield variances. The analysis highlights the sensitivity of subsidy costs to world prices, volumes imported and domestic production, so that alternative policy tools can be considered.     

我国城市公共艺术设计现状及对策研究

随着经济的不断发展,公共艺术已成为一个国家、地区城市发展程度的重要体现,作为一种服务于大众的艺术正逐渐融入我们的生活当中,变成生活中不可或缺的一部分。公共艺术促进着城市的发展,城市是公共艺术赖以生存的地方,二者紧密相关不可分割。本文将对我国当今的公共艺术现状和未来发展进行分析和论述,将目前城市和公共艺术两者之间的关系、公共艺术作品目前存在的问题等进行分析,并提出相关建议。     

公务员培训管理理念及战略组合研究

作为“公务员培训特色研究”课题的总论 ,文章的基本观点是 :从教学管理过程来看 ,培训教育是一个可以“交换”的产品 ,围绕这一产品的开发 ,构成了培训环境分析 (SWOT)、培训管理人员管理、培训岗位需求调研、培训目标对象细分、培训实施、培训监控等几个主要环节的战略管理过程。     

论我国市场经济财政

在我国财政支出范围上,主要是财政供给“越位”和“缺位”并存,供给范围过大,包揽过多,特别是向竞争性生产建设领域延伸过多,而应当政府承担的一些社会公共需要,由于财力紧张,收支矛盾尖锐而无法满足,本文就如何正确理解社会主义财政及处理好公共财政同国有资产财政的关系,谈谈自己的看法。     

Soil and water conservation investments and rural development in China

This study uses a unique set of annual provincial data on soil and water conservation (SWC) investments during the period 1989–2005 to estimate the impact of such investments on the extent and severity of erosion, the growth rate of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and rural poverty reduction in China. We find that SWC investments made by local governments have a significant negative impact on the extent of erosion and (in recent years) the severity of erosion, whereas SWC investments made by farm households until recently had a significant negative effect on the severity of erosion. In its turn, the severity of erosion is found to have a significant negative impact on agricultural GDP. Estimation of the impact of the extent of erosion on agricultural GDP provides mixed results. Based on these results, we derive that one RMB invested in SWC by local governments increases agricultural GDP in 2002 with 0.84–1.25 RMB. Finally, we find that agricultural GDP has a significant negative impact on the rural poverty rate. The resulting indirect effect of SWC investment on rural poverty reduction, however, is small compared to other types of public investment. We conclude that (local) government investments in SWC do not only serve environmental goals, but also make a non-negligible contribution to agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction.     

日本政府投资、民间投资和产业资本收益之间关系的实证分析

本文基于日本的统计数据,利用VAR模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,研究政府部门投资、民间部门投资和全产业总资本收益率之间的相互作用。VAR模型分析表明,政府投资对民间投资的影响比较大,两者对全产业总资本收益率的影响都很大且政府投资的影响远远大于民间投资,这些影响关系都较复杂。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,政府投资变化是民间投资变化的格兰杰原因,两者分别是全产业总资本收益率变化的格兰杰原因,而这些变量之间不存在相反方向的格兰杰因果关系。     

提高我国扶贫开发效益的对策研究

本文从贫困识别、扶贫项目选择、扶贫资源投入整合、公共供给等方面对我国扶贫开发工作进行分析,提出可操作的对策,旨在提高扶贫开发效益,有效改善贫困群体民生。     

论低碳经济发展视阈下的公共政策创新

在全球变暖及其所带来的一系列生态环境问题备受国际关注的时代背景下,低碳经济发展越来越受到各国政府的普遍重视。本文分别从能源安全政策、产业、财税政策、公共参与政策、人才政策以及消费政策五方面展开分析,在此基础上提出适合我国国情的低碳政策创新建议。