制造业与物流业联动发展的产业协调度研究--基于陕西省数据实证分析

运用复合系统模型,计算了陕西省制造业子系统与物流业子系统的有序度,以此为基础,测算得出陕西全省及按照省域细分的陕北、关中、陕南三个组成区块各子系统有序度和复合系统协调度,进而分析了陕西全省及三个组成区块协调度在研究时段的变化态势。结果显示：制造业子系统有序度贡献最大的序参量是增加值,陕北区块的增加值提升最快;物流业子系统有序度贡献最大的是投资额,关中区块的投资额保持领先。通过对陕西省及各区块产业协调度的研究分析发现,各区块内产业间协调度呈现上升趋势,但陕西全省协调程度呈现M型变化趋势,两业之间联动关系围绕着“协调-不协调-协调”过程循环。     

金融发展水平对地方政府债务适度规模的影响研究

在考虑金融发展水平对地方政府债务规模影响的基础上,构建了以金融发展水平和地方政府债务规模的门槛面板模型。实证研究发现,金融发展水平对地方政府债务规模存在“门槛效应”,金融发展水平越高的地区,地方政府债务规模门槛值也较高;金融发展水平中等的地区,地方政府债务规模门槛值相对较低;而一旦地方政府规模超过最高“门槛值”,地方政府较难通过金融市场来缓解债务压力。因此,长期来看,地方政府应将债务控制在一定适度范围内,并加强债务风险管控能力。     

我国地区之间实际收入差距小于名义收入差距 --加入地区间价格差异后的一项研究

影响地区间实际生活水平差异的因素包括居民名义收入和地区间价格水平差异两个方面。用价格水平对名义收入调整后才是地区间真实的收入差异。本文对我国36个城市人均可支配收入进行了价格调整,发现城市间真实生活水平的差异小于货币收入表示的名义收入差距。     

关于区域软实力的研究

从区域合作的本质上看,区域合作不仅仅是追求经济的发展,也是为了建设＂一个‘好的治理’体系,这个体系应该具备合法性、透明性、责任性、法治、回应的基本要素。＂这＂五个基本要素＂为完善有关区域合作的研究指出了一个基本方向。本文研究的是如何构建、提升区域软实力以促使区域合作更为健康、持久的进行。具体而言,就是研究通过文化、社会政策及其工具、价值观等非物质要素的构建,不断增强区域合作公信力、社会凝聚力、特色文化的感召力、人才资源的创造力,充分发挥其对社会经济运作系统的协调、扩张和倍增效应,从而提高区域竞争力。本文的基本论点是构建区域软实力可使区域合作持久的进行,促进区域内社会经济均衡协调发展,提升区域认同感和区域内居民的福祉。     

人民币升值能改善日美与中国的贸易状况吗?——基于汇率经过效应的研究

有学者提出,被低估的人民币是中国贸易盈余和全球贸易不平衡的主要因素,因此,人民币升值有助于改善中西方的贸易状况。显然,这种观点的内在逻辑是:人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格,同时降低外国进口商品和服务的价格,即人民币升值存在较大的汇率经过效应(pass-though effect)。通过对人民币汇率经过效应的研究,发现人民币升值不能改善美国与中国的贸易状况,但能改善日本与中国的贸易状况;其差别的原因就在于贸易定价的不同。     

资源约束与地区经济收敛——基于资源稀缺性与资源配置力的考察

本文从资源稀缺性出发,提出并运用资源配置力这一新的分析工具,对2003年以来中国所面临的经济增长、资源约束与区域经济变动状况作了分析。结果表明,市场供求关系变化导致资源稀缺的结构性变迁与地域性转移,使地区资源配置力与经济竞争力发展相应变动。东部沿海能源与矿产等资源短缺地区备受资源约束递增的压力;中西部尤其是能源与矿产等资源富集地区资源配置力与经济竞争力明显递增,从而出现地区经济收敛趋势。     

地方政府支出规模与结构的居民收入分配效应及制度根源

本文以中国居民营养和健康调查数据为基础,考察了地方政府支出规模与结构的居民收入分配效应及其制度根源。研究表明,地方政府支出规模与结构总体上加剧了我国省份居民收入分配状况的恶化,其中经济性支出比重增加带来的不利影响更为突出,社会支出比重的影响并不显著。财政分权体制对地方政府支出规模与结构的居民收入分配效应具有重要影响:支出分权总体上加剧了地方政府支出规模与结构对省份居民收入分配的不利影响,收入分权则有助于遏制地方政府支出规模对城镇居民收入差距以及经济性支出比重对城乡收入差距的负面效应,但也强化了社会性支出比重对居民收入分配的不利影响。     

A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching

This paper proposes a model to better capture persistent regime changes in the interest rates of the US term structure. While the previous literature on this matter proposes that regime changes in the term structure are due to persistent changes in the conditional mean and volatility of interest rates we find that changes in a single parameter that determines the factor loadings of the model better captures regime changes. We show that this model gives superior in-sample forecasting performance as compared to a baseline model and a volatility-switching model. In general, we find compelling evidence that the extracted factors from our term structure models are closely related with various economic variables. Furthermore, we investigate and find evidence that the effects of macroeconomic phenomena such as monetary policy, inflation expectations, and real economic activity differ according to the particular regime realized for the term structure. In particular, we identify the periods where monetary policy appears to have a greater effect on the yield curve, and the periods where inflation expectations seem to have a greater effect in yield determination. We also find convincing evidence of a relationship between the regimes estimated by the various switching models with economic activity and monetary policy.     

Modelling the implied volatility surface based on Shanghai 50ETF options

We develop a dynamic factor model to forecast the implied volatility surface (IVS) of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options. Based on the assumption that dynamic change in IVS is mean-reverting and Markovian, we use a state space model to capture the dynamics of IVS, and set the latent factors to be the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We obtain the optimal estimations of parameters using the Kalman filter algorithm. Empirical results show that our model performs better than the traditional IVS model in terms of fitting ability and prediction performance.     

INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN GREAT BRITAIN AND ITS EFFECT ON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING PLANTS, 1990–1998

Industrial policy in any economy has a number of varying and occasionally conflicting objectives, but the overarching intention of the various grants, subsidies and support schemes, arguably, must be to improve the economic performance of the plants they assist directly. However, in the absence of counterfactual evidence, whether or not assistance does improve performance is hard to establish. In this paper, we consider the impact of two UK government industrial support schemes (Regional Selective Assistance and the Small Firm Merit Awards for Research and Technology) on UK manufacturing plant level total factor productivity in an attempt to answer the question, ‘did assistance make a difference?’