Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach

This paper analyses the dynamic influence of macroeconomic factors on oil commodity returns (crude oil and heating oil) shown in monthly data over the period of 1990–2013. Using a time-varying parameter model via the Kalman filter, we find that macroeconomic factors are relevant for explaining oil commodity returns. We find that multilateral exchange rates have a negative effect on commodity returns. We confirm the existence of a strong linkage between energy and non-energy commodities. More importantly, we find shifts in global demand and SP500 effects that are not identified through the constant parameter model. These variables have had a progressively positive effect on oil commodity returns, especially since 2008.     

Growth uncertainty,generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing

We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption growth observed in the data. We show that introducing leverage with a procyclical dividend process consistent with the data is critical for the GDA preferences to have a large impact on equity returns.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

A new index of financial conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key US macroeconomic variables. Time-variation in the models׳ parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.     

Disruptive Innovation in the Nordic Countries＇ Healthcare Systems

The Nordic healtheare model is recognized to be one of the most innovative in the world. Here billions of USD are annually invested in developing new treatments, drugs, robots etc. to diagnose and cure diseases. Nevertheless, this study establishes that there is a fundamental shortcoming in the system that supports healthcare innovation： It is strongly biased towards micro-level innovation projects focusing on new products, alternative processes, and new financial solutions. The problem with this approach to support new projects is that the results are created as inventions within the system thus lacking holistic perspectives. This has consequently contributed with increasing costs that are out of proportion with existing budgets. Therefore this study seeks to analyze the current understanding of the Nordic healthcare system from a business model perspective. Here other aspects of the healthcare system are explored to determine if they could be redesigned to promote new types of innovation projects. The purpose of undertaking this task is to challenge the established patterns of the current healthcare innovation support practices. Here the vertical innovation process （VIP） framework, which is a systematic radical innovation model that seeks macro-level outcomes based on standalone inventions （see more below）, is applied to analyze the current state-of-the-art in Nordic healthcare innovation projects. The results determine that very little attention is given to rethink and redesign the healthcare system at a macro-level, and it is discussed that stand-alone inventions ought to be rethought into the entire healthcare system to create a larger impact. Finally, it is argued that existing performance measures are inappropriate to foster projects that innovate the existing system： New measuring points should be developed to promote macro-level projects and to avoid the current rapid increase of costs in the Nordic healthcare system.     

Aid allocation rules

This paper studies an aid allocation rule used by major development agencies, and investigates optimal allocations when recipients are neoclassical economies undergoing transition dynamics. When recipients face aid absorption constraints, allocations that favor poorer recipients are not always optimal, contrary to what is assumed in assessments of donor performance. The most quantitatively significant factors that determine the optimal sensitivity to recipient characteristics are the generosity of the aid budget and the extent of absorption constraints. In neoclassical recipients, aid can only accelerate growth where there is already growth, so the optimal rule places little weight on growth and optimality is largely a matter of balancing recipient need against absorption constraints.     

Wealth effects and agency costs

We analyze how the agent's initial wealth affects the principal's expected profits in the standard principal–agent model with moral hazard.We show that if the principal prefers a poorer agent for all specifications of action sets, probability distributions, and disutility of effort, then the agent's utility of income must exhibit a coefficient of absolute prudence less than three times the coefficient of absolute risk aversion for all levels of income, thus strengthening the sufficiency result of Thiele and Wambach (1999). Also, we prove that there is no condition on the agent's utility of income alone that will make the principal prefer richer agents. Moreover, we show that, for an interesting class of problems, the principal prefers a relatively poorer agent if agent's wealth is sufficiently large. Finally, we discuss how alternative ways of modeling the agent's outside option affects the principal's preferences for agent's wealth.     

理性主义观照的英国BTEC课程模式探析

理性主义哲学体系崇尚科学与实证，理性主义的真理标准为自身观念的清楚明白。这种哲学观指导下的英国BTEC的课程模式，表现出课程目标设定清晰明确、注重学生的主体性学习、实施客观公正学生评价的特点。     

公共政策评估研究综述

政策评估是政策运行过程这一有机链条中的重要一环,对于改进政策制定系统,克服政策运行中的弊端和障碍,提高政策水平具有深远的意义。但是长期以来人们对这一环节的重视不够,通过对政策评估的研究,以其提高大家对政策评估重要性的认识。     

旅游保险企业顾客资产函数模型构建——基于互补性理论的探讨

旅游保险企业销售业绩不理想的一个主要原因,是不能很好地理解互补性营销资产管理的互补机理。旅游保险企业在组合渠道资产(互补性资产)时,如果原有服务质量(核心营销资产)比较薄弱,而新渠道资产需要对服务质量作出变革时,就不可以只组合进渠道资产而保持原有服务质量不变,否则只能达到次优甚至失败。中国旅游保险企业加强与互补体合作,就有可能获取后发营销竞争优势。