A dynamic systems perspective on fine art and its market

This article focuses on dynamic systems theory applied to art systems, especially the social system of art. By this integrative approach, the field of art and culture can be linked to, as well as profit from, other fields where systems-theoretical approaches have been influential, such as sociology, psychology, communication theory and the natural sciences. We show that systems models help to describe and conceptualize essential phenomena characteristic of the fine arts, such as pattern formation, reduction of complexity, and self-reference. Pattern formation can be observed in emerging artistic styles, fashions and trends. The property of self-reference becomes tractable by using the concept of endosystems, i.e. systems that include participating observers and second circularity feedback. The consequences of such dynamics are uncertainty, destabilization, and diversification. Endosystemic modeling promises to capture core properties not only of contemporary art, laying an emphasis on novelty and self-reference. Endosystems are appropriate models of further social systems, especially markets systems, which pose problems for foresight. Within the horizon of foresight that is at all possible in endosystems, three futures scenarios are worked out for the art system.     

Trajectories for Modernizing Local Governance: Revisiting the Flanders Case

Local government plays a central but altering role in local governance. Together with the shift from a night-watchman state to a welfare state , the models of governance provision changed. Government itself became larger and more scattered throughout the local community. Moreover, government was no longer the only governance provider. Many actors were involved in governance with a diversity of steering relations. In our time, governance continues to change. What are the emerging models of local governance today? After sorting out some terminological and methodological issues, we describe four emerging ideal-type models (i.e. the holding model , the autonomous networks model , the implementation model and the reintegration model ), based on four societal scenarios (i.e. triumphant markets , hundred flowers , creative societies and turbulent neighbourhoods ). The models represent four possible local governance futures. Next, the models are applied on two management issues: organizational structure and financial management. Finally, some embryonic evidence is given on the emergence of the models.     

Scenarios based on sustainability discourses: Constructing alternative consumption and consumer perspectives

This paper describes a research based scenario project on sustainable consumption in Belgium. In the Consentsus project a scenario method was developed and tested by the research team to assess scenarios both as learning and participation tools for sustainable consumption. By using a decomposition analysis a solid ground was laid to adequately summarize three guiding principles on how to reach a (more) sustainable consumption: eco-efficiency, de-commodification and sufficiency. These ‘pure’ strategies – showing significant similarities with concrete discourses – were then translated into a participative process: two expert-driven workshops and interim research yielded three future images of food consumption as well as indications on their boundary conditions. These three images reflect significantly diverging approaches on how to organize practices related to food consumption. This structural diversity allowed us to address an archetypical consumer, i.e. a generalized consumer based on the specificities of the scenarios. These consumer perspectives do not aim at indicating real (even potential) groups, but aim at illustrating how the environment of interactions around the consumer fundamentally changes throughout the three sustainability discourses. It is argued that thinking through alternative modes of consumption is of importance to support and elucidate debate in governance arenas that address transitions towards a more sustainable consumption.     

新技术市场化商业模式设计--基于结构与情景视角

大量实践表明,新技术市场化成功的一个必要条件是设计并执行相匹配的新商业模式。然而,关于商业模式的性质与结构至今仍未达成共识,至于如何为特定的技术创新设计新商业模式的理论更是匮乏。针对上述问题,基于“价值定位-价值创造与保持-价值获取”的商业逻辑和系统设计思想,提出较完整的双层商业模式设计体系,并提出基于情景的多阶段商业模式设计过程,有助于创新者更好理解从技术创新中获利的一系列条件、商业模式的性质与结构,及如何探索新的商业模式,从而提高新技术市场化成功率。     

Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: How to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?

In this article, we discuss a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective. The context of medical technology is interesting, because we have to cope with complex future-oriented multi-level and multi-actor strategic decision making. In order to deal with this dilemma we suggest combining the results of a (group) expert opinion forecasting approach with a more market-oriented scenario-approach. More specifically, we use the results of the Delphi-technique as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios. We exemplify this approach by a real life example directed at the future of imaging techniques for cancer care in The Netherlands and focus on a set of scenarios that deal with the application of the MRI-technique in the period 2005–2015. The Delphi-panel's expectations with respect to imaging technology representing the technological forecasts, combined with other relevant developments (such as demographic and epidemiological developments) are translated into alternative inputs for assumptions of the scenario-model. This model is basic to the future projections in terms of needed MRI-scanners, manpower and investments. We argue that the results provide motivation to continue to explore the methodological interesting area of innovation, aligning the market-oriented perspective of users of (medical) technology with the long-term technology forecasting perspective.     

Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-à-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options.The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making.     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

Future memories

Although the concept of foresight is now widely used by Anglo-American writers, the Romance-language countries have continued to refer to the concept of la prospective or prospectiva since the early 1960s. Despite cultural differences, the two concepts are very similar. Nevertheless, the author argues that prospective is closer to strategic foresight. The prospective attitude does not wait for change and then react; it aims to master expected change (preactivity) and to induce a desired change (proactivity). Preactivity is what guides all approaches to future studies, forecasting, scenario planning and foresight. Proactivity is more voluntarist, and aims to bring about the desired changes by means of strategic planning. This leads to a hopeful message: We just have to rethink the problems to move forward. The author highlights the enduring relevance of several key thinkers ranging from Saint Augustine and Seneca to Gaston Berger and Igor Ansoff. He emphasizes the importance of a collectivity's thinking together about the future and taking action. Overall the article pleads for rigor yet some common sense explains the utility of participatory foresight with simple tools (morphological analysis, prospective workshops). In conclusion, this article emphasizes two symmetrical errors: ignore the existence of a hammer when in front of a nail or consider every problem a nail because you have a hammer!     

Performance monitoring of credit portfolios using survival analysis

We are interested in detecting changes in the performance of a credit portfolio quickly and robustly. The portfolio is dynamic: customers can either default or pay the full amount, and new customers can be taken on. Robust detection means that changing the number of new customers taken on should not lead to either a false or delayed signal. We investigate the performances of monitoring schemes via a simulation study that uses several scenarios. We consider monitoring based on default rates estimated through a gliding window, cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts based on default rates, CUSUM charts based on defaults within a given follow-up time after arrival, and a survival analysis CUSUM chart. We conclude that using a survival analysis approach is preferable to using the other approaches.     

Can China realise its energy-savings goal by adjusting its industrial structure?

To investigate whether China can realise its energy-savings goal by 2020 through adjustments to its industrial structure, this study proposes a dynamic input–output multi-objective optimisation model. According to this model, the objectives to be achieved include the maximum gross domestic product and employment, and the minimum energy consumption, where the constraints are the sectoral dynamic input–output balance, labour and energy supply, and sectoral production capacity. The four best solutions are screened from the Pareto-optimal front. The study findings show that the energy intensities in 2020 would decrease by 42.8%, 43.5%, 42.9%, and 43.4% in the four scenarios when compared to their 2002 levels. This means that China can fully achieve its planned energy-savings target for 2020. In order to ensure that the industrial structure is optimised for the future, sectoral capital investments should be regulated by China's government and efforts to improve energy efficiency should be maintained.