Narratives of the future: Suspending disbelief in forest-sector scenarios

Scenario analysis considers highly uncertain future conditions. The method involves developing and analyzing plausible narratives of the future and evaluating them for a range of implications. The power of scenarios lies in creating and considering compelling stories about the future. Thus, narrative, defined as an account of a series of events, is central to the process and plays a pivotal role in engaging participants in a scenario analysis exercise. While a good scenario story can engage individuals and influence their suspension of disbelief, we know little about how participants actually respond to the scenarios so they can, and will, suspend disbelief in scenario outcomes.We explored the role of narrative in suspension of disbelief in a scenario-based study of the long-term future of Canada's forests and forest sector. We discovered that specific aspects of the scenario narratives themselves influenced participants’ suspension of disbelief. While interacting with the scenario narratives, participants actively worked to suspend disbelief by creating new narratives or accessing other existing ones, and by projecting themselves into the scenarios as characters in the stories. Our results may help scenario writers, practitioners, and researchers understand what, in one project, cued people's abilities to suspend disbelief and engage productively in discussions about possible futures.     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Carrot or stick: Impacts of alternative climate and energy policy scenarios on agriculture

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three scenarios based on the strength of mitigation policy. The scenarios scrutinised were (1) Baseline, (2) Tight Control and (3) Energy Plus Food. These scenarios create different adaptive needs and measures on farms. Baseline scenario follows the present and forthcoming development in agriculture and Tight Control scenario, in turn, constitutes all possible mitigation measures recently introduced in the scientific discussion. In Energy Plus Food scenario, farms increasingly produce renewable energy in addition to food and, therefore, have new opportunities to develop their businesses. The Delphi panel estimated how the farms would cope with different future developments represented by the scenarios. Based on our results, it is evident that interdisciplinary analysis in research and inter-sectoral cooperation between agricultural and energy policies are required.     

Shaping the landscape: Agricultural policies and local biodiversity schemes

This paper analyses the potential effect of local agro-environmental policies in promoting multifunctionality in a rural landscape, with a two-scale modelling framework: a regional scale for food demand and a local scale for the forces driving land use. The framework has been designed in four steps. First, the relative influence of the driving factors on the current land use pattern has been analysed. Two scenarios are designed that vary the external demand for the total land use, and alter more or less quickly the specific location factors that drive the landscape pattern. The first scenario considers trends in the external and internal driving forces. The second relies both on totally decoupled farm subsidies and unregulated housing growth. In both scenarios a local agro-environmental policy is introduced and we compare its consequences with the previous scenario's landscape pattern. The third step consists of a modelling exercise that analyses the likely outcome of each scenario on the development of land use patterns on a local scale. Last, these landscape patterns have been translated into ecological indexes that assess the effect of the policy options on the multifunctionality of the local landscape.     

基于区块链的商业模式创新：价值主张与应用场景

随着比特币等数字加密货币的逐渐兴起,作为一种全新的分布式基础架构与计算范式,区块链技术已引起政府、企业和市场高度重视。区块链技术具有去中心化、公开透明、可追溯和不可篡改、高度自治等特点,正在催生商业领域新商业模式。首先,基于区块链技术特点,分析区块链下商业模式的独特价值主张,即基于数据、信息等虚拟元素的价值创造,其商业模式创新关键要素是信任。其次,基于区块链3种不同部署方式：私有链、联盟链及公有链,分析商业模式创新主要应用场景,即企业层面、产业链层面与全社会层面应用场景以及相对应的企业创新案例,为探寻区块链时代商业模式创新切入点提供了一个初步分析框架。     

Puzzling,powering and perpetuating: Long-term decision-making by the Dutch Delta Committee

Long term policy issues like climate change adaptation are considered wicked in the sense that uncertain knowledge and volatile societal understandings associated to the issue might jeopardize long term sustainment of adaptation policies. Uncertainty or sudden societal opposition might politically be employed to dismantle earlier made policies or investments and therefore threaten long term adaptive capacity. This article highlights how successful long-term decision-making can be understood as a matter of puzzling over uncertainty and powering for getting things done, but above all requires sustainment of these decisions on the long term. For doing so the paper analyses the decision-making process of the Dutch Delta Committee in 2008, which firmly put the climate adaptation issue on the Dutch political agenda and subsequently sustained the issue on the policy agenda through the creation of a Delta Commissioner, a Delta Fund and a Delta Act. Our analysis illustrates how the crucial actors in and around the Second Delta Committee deployed strategies of puzzling, powering, and what we define as perpetuation to deal with the long-term policy issue of climate adaptation. The latter is especially important for policy issues that require a long-term continued effort by policy-makers, or will only manifest themselves on the long term. Then, it is not only important to create meaning and organize power now, but also to maintain and ensure that meaning and power for time to come.     

Landscape patterns of development under two alternative scenarios: Implications for conservation

The spatial pattern of urban development has important ecological and conservation implications. Urban sprawl, characterized by scattered and low-density urban development, is commonly criticized for its negative ecological impact. In response, growth management policies have been proposed in order to promote compact development, which is generally considered more favorable from an ecological perspective. Spatial simulations of land cover change are useful for comparing urban development scenarios and their potential effects. One aspect that has not received much attention is how the rate of development may affect differences between compact development and urban sprawl in terms of their potential impact to biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale. Our goal in this study was to compare the spatial pattern and landscape-scale conservation and ecological implications of sprawling development (expected under unregulated development) versus compact development (promoted by growth management policies) at different development rates. We focused on Israel's Mediterranean region—a region characterized by high human population density and heterogeneous land cover. Using a cellular automata model, DINAMICA-EGO, we calibrated and validated an urban development model for the period between 1998 and 2007. Using this period as a reference, we simulated two scenarios 20 years into the future: unregulated (resulting in a more sprawling development pattern) versus regulated development (resulting in a more compact development pattern). For each scenario we analyzed a range of development rates, and compared built-up area patterns, and several landscape-level attributes of natural habitats, conservation priority areas, and protected areas. We found that at development rates comparable to those observed during 1998–2007, there was no major difference between the two scenarios. At higher development rates, some differences between the scenarios emerged: natural core areas were more fragmented and smaller in their extent, and a higher proportion of conservation priority areas were expected to undergo development in the unregulated scenario. Overall, the regulated scenario was more favorable for conservation. Since the regulated and unregulated scenarios exhibited only minor differences in lower development rates, modifications to policy measures included in the regulated scenario should be considered in order improve its effectiveness.     

Land-use planning: Implications for transport sustainability

This research study explores three urban planning scenarios for Melbourne, Australia in 2030 and their implications for transport sustainability. As part of the analyses, a transport sustainability index, derived from 10 sustainability indicators, was developed and applied to compare the scenarios. A base-case scenario, an activity-centres scenario, and a fringe-focus scenario were used to consider compact to expanded urban development patterns. The activity-centres scenario, which favours compact development patterns, had the highest transport sustainability index. In contrast, the fringe-focus scenario that significantly expands urban development in the fringe resulted in a lower transport sustainability index. The results of scenario analysis would influence decisions regarding urban development in 2030.     

我国保险业区域发展路径和模式选择——基于情景模式分析法的实证研究

预测未来保险区域发展的趋势并以此为据设定发展目标,是保险区域发展路径与模式选择的基础。本文采用情景分析法分析各保险区域的未来发展趋势。研究表明,相对惯性情景模式,以适宜情景设定保险区域的发展目标是比较合理的发展方向。为实现区域协调发展,未来仍需加大对保险业发展的宏观指导,针对各个区域保险的发展特点,选择适当的区域保险发展模式。