Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them to answer "what if" type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call "future jump-off date forecasts". Future jump-off date forecasts are valuable because they show policy-makers the likelihood that crucial features of today's forecasts will also be present in forecasts made in the future.     

Designing a foresight exercise for the future of rural communities in Romania

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

Community tourism development scenarios and their use in tourism research

Scenarios have been utilised to a limited degree in tourism and in a number of areas such as in development, sustainability studies, and political decision making. The use of scenarios has primarily concentrated on evaluating people's attitudes and decision processes, as predictions toward perceived future situations for tourism planning, and as a tool in exploratory research. In a recent study conducted in Eastern Australian coastal regions, a set of community tourism scenarios was developed in order to gauge the types of communities with tourism development, and thus explore in more depth the ideologies and platforms which may have influence on decision making in local government. The use of a community tourism scenario, such as developed in this study may have strong implications in broadening the way tourism and community researchers distinguish community attitudes toward present and future tourism development opportunities as well as their corresponding pressures. In addition, it may provide a positive tool for understanding perceived community directions as well as providing a mechanism for gauging planning decisions in a tourism context.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

The use of multiple scenarios in sales forecasting: An empirical test

Nearly 500 annual sales forecasts were generated from the responses of 82 subjects who were presented with either a time-series plot of historical sales data by itself or with the same plus three scenarios, and were then asked to make forecasts. Sales forecasts were made in either a stable or an unstable environment. The findings did not support the claims made by scenario advocates. Scenarios did not make unexpected outcomes less surprising. Instead, scenarios were found to increase confidence in a favored forecast. Furthermore, no support was found for the contention that scenarios improved upon ‘eyeball’ extrapolations or made judgmental sales forecasts more accurate than quantitative extrapolations. Scenarios were found to be tainted by many of the same biases previously identified by cognitive psychologists.     

Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they don't, mostly — they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them.Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth.The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low in a growing economy.