创新要素集聚、政府支持与科技创新效率——基于省域数据的空间面板计量分析

本文运用空间面板计量方法研究了创新要素集聚、政府支持与科技创新效率之间的关系。实证研究的结果表明:我国科技创新效率具有明显的空间相关性。创新要素集聚对于科研机构创新效率具有负影响,对于高校的影响不显著,而对于企业的影响为正。政府支持对于科研机构和高校创新效率的影响具有不确定性,而对于企业具有负影响。制度因素对于科研机构和高校创新效率没有明显影响,而对于企业具有明显的正影响。人力资本对于高校和企业创新效率具有正影响。FDI因素对于企业创新效率具有正的外溢效应。因此,政府需要通过对人力资本的知识和健康投资,提高人力资本的质量,才能实现更快的创新产出和经济增长。     

The house price determination process: Rational expectations with a spatial context

Applying the rational expectations hypothesis, this essay models the current value of a house as the conditional expectation of the discounted stream of housing services accruing to the owner of the house. The value of housing services is determined by neighborhood effects as well as the physical attributes of the property itself. In the existing hedonic literature, future transactions have not been utilized to describe neighborhood effects. The rational expectations asset pricing model in this study accounts for expected future neighborhood effects as well as observed current neighborhood effects. The reduced form of the rational expectations model is a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model with two spatial lags. After employing the generalized method of moments (GMM) in estimating the spatial asset pricing model, I find that both expected future transactions and prior transactions in the neighborhood are significant. The inclusion of expected future transaction prices in the neighborhood takes into account the influence of expected changes in the community and factors these potential changes into the current house price. This is consistent with forward-looking households. The forward-looking model generates superior out-of-sample prediction performance relative to both the conventional hedonic model without considering neighborhood effects or the standard spatial hedonic model including only past transactions.     

Who votes for public environmental goods in California?: Evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures

Voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods. A number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods. These studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units (usually counties) and summary income measures such as the mean or median, and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions. We examine environmental referenda voting in California using census block group data, spatial dependence controls, and detailed income distribution data. We find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data. In addition, controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients. This suggests that OLS estimates of referenda determinants are biased. We also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies.     

Using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non-priced open-access outdoor recreation sites. To begin, the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site. The population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and GIS techniques and an individual-level ‘visitor arrival function’ is then transferred across this simulated population. This allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed, providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site. Combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site. The approach is applied to Moyode Wood, a small-scale forest in the West of Ireland, and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at €0.4 million for the site. The research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites. It also demonstrates how individual-level single-site travel cost models estimated using on-site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites.     

Accounting for the ecosystem services of migratory species: Quantifying migration support and spatial subsidies

Migratory species support ecosystem process and function in multiple areas, establishing ecological linkages between their different habitats. As they travel, migratory species also provide ecosystem services to people in many different locations. Previous research suggests there may be spatial mismatches between locations where humans use services and the ecosystems that produce them. This occurs with migratory species, between the areas that most support the species' population viability - and hence their long-term ability to provide services - and the locations where species provide the most ecosystem services. This paper presents a conceptual framework for estimating how much a particular location supports the provision of ecosystem services in other locations, and for estimating the extent to which local benefits are dependent upon other locations. We also describe a method for estimating the net payment, or subsidy, owed by or to a location that balances benefits received and support provided by locations throughout the migratory range of multiple species. The ability to quantify these spatial subsidies could provide a foundation for the establishment of markets that incentivize cross-jurisdictional cooperative management of migratory species. It could also provide a mechanism for resolving conflicts over the sustainable and equitable allocation of exploited migratory species.     

1990年以来江苏省区域经济差异时空格局演化及其成因分析

以1990—2007年江苏省县域人均GDP为研究指标,运用不平衡指数和空间统计模型对江苏省区域经济发展水平进行定量研究,并结合GIS的空间分析功能,系统分析了江苏省区域经济发展时空差异及空间格局演化。结果表明:江苏省区域经济发展在空间上具有较强的自相关性,在整体格局上呈现出一定的集聚态势,空间格局更多表现为苏南部分地区的高度集聚和苏北部分地区的集聚态势,成为江苏省区域经济发展的集聚核心区和低度集聚区,而苏中地区的集聚态势显得并不强烈。同时,针对区域经济自相关性发展趋势进行解释并指出以县域经济为单元的区域经济发展空间差异将长期存在。最后,构建空间数据模型对此种格局形成的原因进行空间统计学上的探讨,指出规模企业空间分布差异及人才空间分布差异是导致县域经济发展差异的主要因素,为区域经济差异分析提供了一种交互式的、可视化的新手段,进而为政府部门制定区域经济协调发展政策提供决策依据。     

美国行政中心空间与规模特征及其成因研究

行政中心是行政区划的基本要素之一,行政中心尽量靠近地理中心对行政管理和促进区域发展平衡有积极的理论和现实意义。文章提出了行政中心与地理中心偏差的计算公式,运用空间统计分析方法结合Ar-cGIS软件,以美国为例,分析了美国县治与地理中心地理偏差的空间分布和数据特征以及州府与州最大城市的人口规模关系特征,总结了产生以上特征的自然、历史和政治上的原因,并运用空间可视化方法直观地显示分析结果。分析结果表明：①美国的县治普遍比较接近地理中心,其接近程度有由东部向西部递减的趋势且存在一定的空间集聚;②州府大多数并非州最大城市,人口较少。最后从行政中心区位选择和区域发展平衡两方面得出对中国的启示,为中国行政区划改革和区域经济发展提供借鉴。     

城市地价空间自相关分析——以宿州市为例

运用全局和局域自相关统计量及地统计学半变异函数分析方法,对宿州市商业和住宅地价的全局自相关、各项异性及局域自相关特征进行了全面分析.结果表明:在2 800m范围内,宿州市商业和住宅地价均存在较强的正自相关性且趋于高值集聚,随着相关距离的增大,地价半方差按球状模型曲线增长,自相关性逐渐减弱;在不同方向上,地价的空间自相关特征不尽相同,南北方向上的空间自相关范围要大于东西方向,但随机性较强,自相关程度较东西方向弱;在全局呈显著自相关的情形下局域地价也主要呈空间集聚格局,但部分地区表现出异质性.     

区域技术创新及其影响因素的空间计量分析

利用空间统计的Moran指数和空间截面数据模型,对影响我国区域技术创新的因素进行计量分析。结果表明：区域创新环境对我国区域技术创新为显著的负效应;大学和创新企业对我国区域技术创新有显著的促进作用;研究机构对我国区域技术创新没有显著的贡献;创新企业对提高技术创新能力的贡献最大。