世界国防科技工业综合实力评价

为客观准确地评价世界国防科技工业综合实力,构建了基于AHP-CRITIC-CTWF的国防科技工业综合实力评价指标体系和测算方法,利用层次分析法和CRITIC法进行主客观加权组合赋权,运用中心点混合三角白化权函数进行聚类分析。对20个代表性国家的国防科技工业综合实力进行了实证分析,结果表明：整体来看,各国国防科技工业综合实力四层次的分布格局较为明确;从准则层看,大部分国家国防科技工业各层面建设与综合实力水平有较大差别,有的国家综合实力排名靠前,但层面建设不足,限制了国防科技工业的发展,如俄罗斯;有的国家综合实力排名虽然不高,但在某些层面处于领先地位,成为其国防科技工业发展的重点和优势,如韩国。     

Purchasing Power Parity and aggregation bias for a developing country: The case of Mexico

This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. — which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias — and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein — hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although estimates using aggregate data and imposing homogeneous coefficients provide little evidence of PPP, findings with disaggregated data and heterogeneous coefficient estimators offer strong support. The results also suggest the presence of small-sample bias as examined in Chen and Engel, but with little effect on the qualitative results. Tradable goods and non-tradable goods show little distinction in convergence rates. Estimated half-lives are lower under flexible than fixed exchange rates and indicate rapid convergence during the Mexican peso crisis.     

亚洲金融区域主义的政治逻辑

本文探讨了合法性与权力在金融区域主义方面的因果效应。当前以G7为主导的全球体制中合法性的明显缺失和国家间权力格局的变化影响了东亚的政策决策。东亚国家寻求抗衡性的战略,也即在保持着与以G7为中心的全球金融体制合作关系的情况下,通过发展自身的区域性制度(或其他潜在方案)以避免对前者的过度依赖。上述观察意味着,除非现存全球金融体制解决了合法性问题,并且当前(有利于东亚的)权力转移发生逆转,亚洲新兴经济体不会将应对国际金融问题的全部希望寄于全球性的解决方案。     

浅议公私权制衡理论

权力导致腐败,绝对的权力绝对导致腐败。公权的来源和本质决定了公权的行使不是任意毫无阻碍的,而应受到限制。考虑到执权者的个人素质问题,对公权行为的监管就更为必要。既要避免公权过分干预私权侵犯公民基本人权,又要防止公权在行使中由于方法和程序的不当侵犯人权,同时也要防范由于公权行使的不作为造成的在保障私权方面的公权缺位。用法律确定公权角色,使其既不缺位也不越位。     

It's easier to contract than to pay: Judicial independence and US municipal default in the 19th century

It is well established in the literature that an independent judiciary can act as a signal of credibility by a sovereign state and as a guarantor of creditor rights. However, to date there has been little systematic work analyzing how an independent judiciary reacts to fiscal stress and public-sector default. This article addresses that very question by evaluating how and if judicial independence affects default rates using US municipal data through the nineteenth century. Overall, the results do indicate that greater judicial independence is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of default. This channel largely occurs through the method by which a member of a state's court of last resort is selected (either appointment or popular election) and term length.     

关于国有公司国有资产所有权主体问题

解决国有公司国有资产所有权主体问题主要不在于国有资产管理机构的设置,而在于“政 企分开”和“政资分开”。解决国有资产所有权主体缺位的有效途径：一是通过确立国有资本产权在国有 企业中的“人格化”;二是通过设立对委托人和代理人的约束和激励机制来减少委托代理成本。     

关于状态空间方法中状态空间模型的札记（下）

章对状态空间方法中状态空间模型的基本思想进行了论述,并对一般献中未详细证明的部分给出了证明,便于从事实际工作的统计工作和自学领会和掌握该模型。     

用科学发展观推进国有企业的深化改革

必须用科学发展观指导国有企业的深化改革，否则难以实现国企改革的目标。当前深化国企改革的要点有三：一是国有企业改制和产权转让的规范化问题；二是改革的配套协调问题：三是政府转型问题。     

Partial moment volatility indices

Forward‐looking partial moment volatility indices are developed using state‐pricing, called the bear index (BEX) and bull index (BUX). Using S&P 500 index (SPX) option prices, we find that BEX and BUX provide superior forecasts for the lower and upper partial moments of future market realised volatility, respectively. We examine the relation between SPX returns and changes in BEX and BUX at the daily level. Results are consistent with the volatility feedback hypothesis. Further, we show that BEX may be more suitable as the ‘investor fear gauge’ than VIX.     

金融生态与区域经济增长的动态关系研究

金融的稳定与发展对一个国家或者地区的经济发展起着至关重要的作用。本文从金融生态的角度,利用状态空间模型研究了区域金融发展和经济增长之间的动态关系,并指出这种动态的关系更加符合现实的经济运行状况,更加深刻地反映区域金融发展与经济增长之间的规律。