检视都市永续发展指针的发展历程与内涵:从指针系统建构到政策评估

本文回顾国际上相关的都市永续发展指针系统,探讨指针系统架构与内涵之间的差异,进而说明永续台湾评量系统中"都市台湾"指针系统的重要特色,以及指针项目选定的理论基础.藉由永续台湾评量系统中22个范畴的型态辨识,本文分析了都市在台湾永续发展中所扮演的角色,确认都市生产与生活型态对于整体永续发展的重要性,也验证了生态系统观点中都市对于环境的依存与影响.考量都市发展决策过程需要永续性的评量机制,本文利用都市永续发展指针作为政策评估的重要变量,应用交互式计算机软件<感受性系统模型(Sensitivitv Model Tools)>以系统性观点进行都市发展政策永续性的评析.透过系统软件功能掌握变量结构的完整性以及系统变量之间的相互影响关系,并藉助于团体咨询与讨论的沟通方式建构半量化的(semi-quantitative)系统变量,配合概念化及模糊化的方式界定变量水准以及函数关系进行系统仿真工作.籍由系统仿真了解变量之间的互动关系,而政策评估案例分析显示台北市硬件建设政策较空间调整政策发挥较大的效果.永续指针与系统工具的结合整体而言提供了都市政策永续性评估的沟通与预测接口.     

螺旋机构运动精度可靠性设计

将螺旋机构的诸原始误差视为随机变量,对螺旋机构具有螺距累积误差、中径锥度和椭圆度误差、牙型半角误差等各项随机变量分别进行了分析;运用微小位移的线性迭加原理,综合出各项误差导致的机构运动输出总误差,建立了机构运动精度可靠性分析模型;利用计算机数字仿真技术,考察了机构各项误差导致的机构运动输出总误差对机构输出运动精度可靠性的影响,从中获得了一些有意义的结论。     

Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach

In state–space models, parameter learning is practically difficult and is still an open issue. This paper proposes an efficient simulation-based parameter learning method. First, the approach breaks up the interdependence of the hidden states and the static parameters by marginalizing out the states using a particle filter. Second, it applies a Bayesian resample-move approach to this marginalized system. The methodology is generic and needs little design effort. Different from batch estimation methods, it provides posterior quantities necessary for full sequential inference and recursive model monitoring. The algorithm is implemented both on simulated data in a linear Gaussian model for illustration and comparison and on real data in a Lévy jump stochastic volatility model and a structural credit risk model.     

Perseverance and suspense in tug-of-war

We study a tug-of-war game between two players using the lottery contest success function (CSF) and a quadratic cost (of effort) function. We construct a pure strategy symmetric Markov perfect equilibrium of this game, show that it is unique, and provide closed-form solutions for equilibrium strategies and values. In stark contrast to a model of tug-of-war with an all-pay auction CSF, players exert positive efforts until the very last battle in this equilibrium. We deliver a set of empirically appealing results on effort dynamics.     

Determining optimal fuel delivery strategies under uncertainty

During the preparation before a hurricane makes landfall, affected individuals may be asked to evacuate. Large and small-scale evacuations can cause rapid increases in the demand for gasoline fuel. However, during a hurricane vessels carrying gas may be delayed and/or rerouted, adding to the difficulty of providing the necessary gas in affected areas. In this work, we determine alternate delivery locations and times for vessels carrying fuel that are scheduled to arrive and deliver fuel at ports impacted by an approaching hurricane. Motivated by Hurricane Irma in Florida, we develop a multi-period stochastic scheduling model that incorporates hurricane (weather) advisories, fuel delivery schedules, port storage capacities, and port docking capacities. Our model determines the best schedule based on two objectives: (1) minimize the total unmet demand at each port, and (2) minimize inequities in unmet demands among the ports. We also present a case study and a numerical experiment based on fuel delivery data from ports in Florida. Among our key findings is that port availability is the driving factor in determining feasible schedules for vessel gas deliveries. We also present a scheduling heuristic that dynamically adapts to weather advisories so as to minimize the impact of unmet demand in the affected areas.     

不同厚度钢板加固RC梁受力性能的数值模拟研究

钢筋混凝土梁的变形与受力性能与结构的服役环境关系密切,在严酷的自然环境中,混凝土结构常发生劣化而影响其正常使用。本文采用ABAQUS非线性数值模拟方法,开展了不同厚度钢板(Q235钢材)加固钢筋混凝土梁的应力和位移。分析结果表明在梁底粘贴钢板可显著增强混凝土梁的抵抗变形能力,而钢板厚度是影响混凝土梁变形的主要参数。;粘贴钢板所形成的复合截面能够有效降低混凝土的拉伸损伤程度,并有效限制混凝土裂缝的开展,同时也显著降低了纵向受拉钢筋的应力。     

基于Web的城市交叉口虚拟仿真实验教学系统

城市交叉口作为城市交通的瓶颈和关键性节点,是一个多因素决策的复杂系统。在实验室的仿真模拟往往需要借助大多数仿真软件进行,且仿真设备购买成本昂贵。因此,提出了一种适用于实验室教学的解决方案,通过无人机拍摄以及图像识别技术收集实验所需实验数据,使用自主研发的基于Web的城市道路交叉口虚拟仿真系统仿真城市交叉口。仿真实验结果表明,所设计的系统可满足智能城市交叉口的仿真实验的基本要求。该解决方案具有维护便捷,可移植性强,成本低廉等优点,为智能城市交叉口的教学与科研提供了强有力的支持。     

存在遗漏变量时的内生性研究

存在遗漏变量时回归系数的估计是计量经济学的一个重要内容。本文讨论单方程计量经济模型中随机解释变量的内生性,指出了目前的计量经济理论所存在的问题,提出了普通最小二乘估计一致性判别的新方法,并证明了存在遗漏变量情况下的普通最小二乘估计仍是一致估计。     

柳工856装载机电气故障模拟试验台开发

由于装载机结构庞大,电器元件隐蔽分散,不适合实物教学。我院研制开发的柳工856装载机电气故障模拟试验台结构紧凑、尺寸小,可在实验室内直接进行实验。教学效果较好,而且经济效益明显,占用实验室空间小。对国内高职院校工程机械电气课程教学有一定的示范和借鉴作用。