On marginal estimation in a semiparametric model for longitudinal data with time-independent covariates

We consider M-estimators for a class of semiparametric mixed-effect models without time-dependent covariates and show that the simple marginal estimation method is generally better than the same M-estimator applied to the de-correlated response based on a known or estimated covariance matrix for each subject.     

我国宏观投资效率的定义与衡量:一个文献综述

近年来宏观投资领域的很多问题引起了广泛争论,比如我国是否存在“过度投资”、“资本配置效率”是否有所改善、我们的投资体制在多大程度上实现了从计划向市场的转变,等等。我们可以在一个共同的标题——“宏观投资效率”——下讨论这些问题,包括总量效率、结构效率以及体制特征等角度衡量的效率。本文整理和介绍了现有研究宏观投资效率,尤其是改革开放以来中国宏观投资效率的文献。在尽量准确、完整地介绍各种研究方法和结论的基础上,对各项研究的优缺点也进行了分析和评述,希望能为今后更加深入的理论和实证研究提供帮助。     

专业化分工、网络组织与产业集群演进机理分析

产业集群的形成和发展不仅是劳动分工深化的结果,也是某种特定交易制度安排的结果。信任的扩展是集群分工发展的基本动力,而网络以它特有的信息、规范功能有效地保证了这一过程的顺利进行。因此,分工不仅受市场规模或范围的限制,实际上也受制度安排中交易效率的限制。政府在产业集群中的作用更多的是要注重经济制度的建构,对基于普遍性信任的交易进行规范,以此降低交易费用,促进产业集群持续、健康发展。     

Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany

The success of the flat rate income tax in eastern Europe suggests that this concept could also be a model for countries of western Europe. The present paper uses a simulation model to analyze the effects of revenue neutral flat rate tax reforms on equity and efficiency for the case of Germany. We find that a flat rate tax with a low tax rate and a low basic allowance yields positive static welfare effects amounting to approximately 1.8% of income tax revenue but increases income inequality. The increase in income inequality can be avoided by combining a higher tax rate with a higher basic allowance. But in this case, the efficiency gains vanish. We conclude that due to their limited efficiency effects and their problematic distributional impact, flat tax reforms are unlikely to spill over to the grown-up democracies of western Europe.      

Health care regulation and the operating efficiency of hospitals: Evidence from Taiwan

Using data from the Annual Survey of Hospitals compiled by the Department of Health in Taiwan for years 1994 through 1997, we employed Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate the impact of a National Health Insurance (NHI) Program on the operating efficiency of district hospitals in Taiwan. We find that, on average, efficiency of district hospitals in Taiwan decreased following the implementation of the NHI Program. Our results are robust to the inclusion of control variables that have been shown to affect hospital operating performance in prior research, and alternative efficiency measurements.     

Achieving efficiency with manipulative bargainers

Two agents bargain over the allocation of a bundle of divisible commodities. After strategically reporting utility functions to a neutral arbitrator, the outcome is decided by using a bargaining solution concept chosen from a family that includes the Nash and the Raiffa–Kalai–Smorodinsky solutions. When reports are restricted to be continuous, strictly increasing and concave, it has been shown that this kind of “distortion game” leads to inefficient outcomes. We study the distortion game originated when agents are also allowed to claim non-concave utility functions. Contrasting with the previous literature, any interior equilibrium outcome is efficient and any efficient allocation can be supported as an equilibrium outcome of the distortion game. In a similar fashion to the Nash demand game we consider some uncertainty about the opponent's features to virtually implement the Nash bargaining solution.     

城市科技创新效率与网络结构特征——对国家级创新型城市的实证分析

以2003—2017年中国75个创新型城市面板数据为样本，首先，运用SBM超效率模型测度各城市科技创新效率；其次，基于修正引力模型测度城市间创新联系强度，运用社会网络分析法，从人才流动、资本流动和制度学习3个方面对创新型城市的网络结构及演变特征进行测度和分析；最后，利用考虑城市地理位置的地理加权回归（GWR）模型分析网络结构特征对科技创新效率的影响机制。结果发现：①科研基础设施和人才流动中心度对城市科技创新效率提升具有促进作用，而制度学习中心度、人才教育和产业结构为负向影响；②随着时间推移，城市人才流动中心度对科技创新效率提升具有积极促进作用且趋于强化，资本流动中心度从具有微弱的积极作用趋向于在不同城市呈现出激励和阻碍两种效应，制度学习中心度的负面影响亦趋于强化；③各城市创新网络结构对科技创新效率的影响在测度期前期差别较小，而在后期呈现出越发显著的空间差异性。     

我国反洗钱监管效率研究

随着国际交往越来越频繁,反洗钱也显得越来越重要,也正因为如此,反洗钱工作在国家战略决策体系中占据了非常重要的地位。从目前情况来看,金融机构每年上报的可疑交易报告数量与日俱增,反洗钱监管部门如何"大海捞针",同时如何引导金融机构进行客户风险等级管理,都给中国反洗钱监管效率的改进留下了巨大空间。本文在介绍分析当前反洗钱工作效率不高的表现及原因的基础上,拟从监管方式、制度设计等方面提出提高反洗钱监管效率的对策。     

中国金融发展与技术效率改善——基于工业制成品行业面板数据的经验研究

技术效率改善对于中国经济效率进一步的提高具有决定性作用。基于2001～2007中国国有及规模以上非国有工业制成品行业面板数据,本文在Malmquist指数法下测算了技术效率改善指数。利用该指数,本文进一步检验了金融发展与技术效率改善的联系。经验结果表明,金融发展促进了技术效率改善,而在外源融资依赖度高的行业,这种促进效应更加明显。     

Dynamic efficiency assessment of the Chinese hotel industry

The paper introduces for the first time a totally dynamic two-stage approach to analyzing the hotel industry's technical efficiency at the sub-national level. The first stage uses data envelopment window analysis (DEWA) to assess regional hotel sectors' technical efficiency over time. Unlike previous studies, the second stage uses a dynamic Tobit model to investigate the impact of macro contextual factors on the hotel sector efficiency. The study chooses the Chinese hotel industry during the period 2001-2006 as its application setting. The findings of the investigation indicate that the Chinese hotel industry is approaching an efficient operation in general, recovering from a major dip in 2003 resulting from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. In addition, the study introduces a novel two-dimensional efficiency-based matrix to assess the competitive advantage of different regions of the Chinese hotel sector. The paper presents strategic market implications for hoteliers, government decision-makers, and destination management organizations. The proposed methods are applicable for situations in which an exogenous event of a destabilizing impact (e.g., SARS) does occur.