基于地理学对"三江源"生态难民形成机制的分析

本文围绕“三江源”日益恶化的生态环境及由此引发的生态难民问题,从地理学的角度进行了综合分析,明确提出独特的自然环境系统和现代环境的变迁给源区牧民提供了极其狭小的空间,而人类活动中传统的生产方式、现代价值取向的变化、社会管理的失误以及落后的经济发展水平,无限制的对自然的索取,超越了环境系统所能承受的阀值,人类不得不听任自然的“安排”。因此,应通过合理规划,积极妥善地安置源区生态难民;调整产业结构,积极发展源区经济;科学管理,有计划地节制外来流动人员;发展教育,构建与源区生态相适宜的生态文化,实现区域可持续发展的“双赢”目标。     

马岭河峡谷漂流探险生态旅游开发研究

生态旅游已成为国内外旅游业中的一种时尚，漂流探险生态旅游由于其自身的特殊性，已逐渐成为生态旅游者中勇敢者最富旅游体验的项目之一。本文对贵州马岭河峡谷国家级风景风胜区的漂流探险生态旅游的开发优势、劣势条件进行了探讨，提出了对其开发规划的一些具体措施和对策。     

构建三峡库区农村生态和谐及其对策研究

三峡库区人地矛盾尖锐，经济发展水平低．农村生态环境问题严重。从长期看，构建农村生态和谐必须进行工业化和城市化。从短期看．必须立足于农业自身的发展。政府应采取和推广保护性耕作、使用沼气等措施．促进农业和农村的发展。     

Supplying trees in an era of environmental uncertainty: Identifying challenges faced by the forest nursery sector in Great Britain

In recent years, numerous articles have addressed management strategies aimed at assisting forests to adapt to climate change. However, these seldom take into account the practical and economic implications of implementing these strategies, notably, supply of forest plants and seed. Using semi-structured interviews with practitioners involved in the plant and seed supply chain in Great Britain, we highlight a series of practical and economic bottlenecks commonly encountered in the supply of locally sourced seed and domestically produced planting stock for native woodland and hedging markets. We find that adoption of alternative seed sourcing strategies, designed specifically to account for directional climate warming, is likely to exacerbate existing problems by adding further complexity to decisions nurseries make about tree species and seed origins to produce. The lack of long-term market predictability brought about by the current configuration of forestry grants and regulations and, in particular, the administrative systems for processing grant applications is identified as a major impediment to having a sustainable and competitive supply of home-grown and currently adapted planting stock. Finally, the time and effort it takes to supply healthy plants for native woodland creation projects deserves much wider recognition throughout the industry and will be crucial if planting objectives are to be met sustainably.     

DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery

The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters. Unlike other deep downturns, this recession was not followed by a swift recovery, but instead generated a sizable and persistent output gap that was not accompanied by deflation as a traditional Phillips curve relationship would have predicted. Moreover, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy generated an unprecedented policy environment. We document the actual real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model during this period and explain the results using the pseudo real-time forecasting performance results from a battery of DSGE models. We find the New York Fed DSGE model’s forecasting accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters, and notably better for output growth than the median forecasts from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. The model’s financial frictions were key in obtaining these results, as they implied a slow recovery following the financial crisis.     

Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

The paradoxes of risk management in the banking sector

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that they have failed to rectify a critical imbalance of power - with the back office control functions continuing to be dominated by front office trading and investment functions. Ultimately, viewing the 'core' of risk management systems as a series of connected paradoxes rather than a set of assured, robust practices, requires a fundamental switch in emphasis away from a normative, standards-based approach to risk management to one which gives greater recognition to its behavioural dimensions.     

论和谐社会视野中水库管理部门纪检监察工作的开展

纪检监察机关肩负着反腐倡廉为构建和谐社会提供纪律保证的艰巨任务,必须深刻理解构建社会主义和谐社会这一全新执政治国理念的重大现实意义和深远历史意义。本文分析了在建设社会主义和谐社会的大背景下如何展开水库管理部门纪检监察工作的对策。     

Prediction research on the water quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area： a review

对河流水质模型和流域非点源污染模型在三峡库区水质预测的相关研究进行了综述，着重探讨了河流水质模型中水质组分在三峡库区多介质环境的迁移与转化机理．以及流域非点源污染模型在三峡流域污染负荷的研究进展。