Deposit Insurance and Depositor Monitoring: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

The Banking Acts of 1933 and 1935 insured deposits up to $5,000 and limited interest paid by commercial banks. This essay uses a treatment-and-control estimation strategy to determine how those reforms influenced depositors’ reactions to information about banks’ balance sheets by comparing preferred and regular depositors at New York state banks. Before deposit insurance, regular depositors reacted more to information about banks, while preferred depositors reacted less. After, this difference diminished and almost disappeared. This change indicates insurance reduced monitoring, although depositors’ continued response to some information indicates that large, uninsured depositors continued to monitor banks, as the legislation intended.     

The Great Recession,Household Income,and Children's Test Scores

Economic downturns may have important implications for the educational attainment and human capital accumulation of children. We examine how income losses during the Great Recession were associated with children's educational performance in Ireland, one of the countries most severely affected by the global financial crisis. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative child cohort study, collected before and after the recession at ages 9 and 13 years, we estimate panel models to examine the impact of income changes on standardized tests. We explore both objective and subjective measures of recession impact, and investigate non-linearities and effect heterogeneity using quantile regression. While income is strongly associated with educational performance overall, there is little evidence of a short-run negative impact of income shocks during the Great Recession on children's test scores.     

Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain

What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high-frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.     

东三省旅游经济与交通业共生关系研究

明晰旅游经济与交通业两者之间的相互影响关系,对于产业优化、促进区域协调发展至关重要。本文基于共生理论,对2010-2019年东北三省旅游经济与交通业发展的综合评价、共生度、共生关系进行了测算。数据结果显示:东三省的旅游经济和交通业呈现持续向好的发展态势;三省共生度均呈现δ_TC≠δ_CT>0,表明旅游经济与交通业的关系均呈现为正向非对称共生,但省际差异也较为明显;黑龙江共生系数θ_T^M均值为0.6165>0.5,说明旅游经济对交通业的影响作用较大;吉林共生系数θ_T^M均值为0.0902<0.5、辽宁共生系数θ_T^M均值为0.4547<0.5,说明交通业对旅游经济影响较大,特别是吉林省。因此,为促成旅游经济与交通业呈现更加对称协调的共生关系,黑龙江省应加强交通网络建设;吉林、辽宁省应加强旅游产品开发及线路规划,以此促进区域经济持续向好协调发展。     

Housing booms and bank growth

The rapid increase in U.S. house prices during the 2001–2006 period was accompanied by a historically rapid expansion of bank assets. We exploit cross-regional variation in local housing booms to study how housing demand shocks affected the growth of the banking sector. We estimate the effect of housing demand shocks that are orthogonal to observed non-housing demand shocks and credit supply shocks in each bank’s market area. We employ several instrumental variables that plausibly identify variation in local housing demand that is exogenous to local banks. We find that the housing boom had a large effect on bank asset growth—the cross-regional elasticity of bank growth with respect to housing demand shocks is around 0.6. The regional elasticity estimate suggests that housing demand shocks can potentially account for a large fraction of the growth of the banking sector during this period.     

The local paradox in grand policy schemes. Lessons from Newfoundland and Labrador

We turn to the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador and its continuous reorganization of governance, its series of shocks, ambitions of reinvention and development to analyze the risks associated with Great Reset-style ambitions. We coin the concept of the local paradox: grand schemes need input from and implementation at a local level and this requires local governance to be autonomous, legitimate and to have the institutional and cognitive capacities, as well as the resources, to fulfill these roles. On the other hand, these requirements can entirely derail top-down ambitions. Currently, existing local governance might not be interested in transformation into more empowered political entities capable of contributing to greater collective goals. We suggest ways out of this conundrum, arguing for a strict avoidance of ideological tropes and false oppositions.     

社会整合理论视角下丹江口水库移民新村社会管理创新研究

从帕森斯AGIL模式为基础的社会整合理论出发,通过援引河南省丹江口水库移民村社会管理创新实践,关注移民间内部结构的再分化与社会整合,探讨对移民实施政治整合、经济整合、社会和文化整合的策略和逻辑,以期实现移民"搬得出,稳得住,可发展,能致富"的目标。