化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下的经济低碳转型

本文构建了一个包含产品生产、技术研发、新能源生产和温室气体减排四个部门的内生增长模型;并运用最优控制理论,研究了在化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下,经济低碳转型中的一系列关键变量的长期行为方式和中短期平衡增长路径;进而刻画了劳动力在各部门间的配置和转移、化石能源价格、排放空间价格对能源结构、碳强度、消费、单位劳动碳减排量、单位劳动产出等变量的影响机制;同时揭示了运用一些政策工具实现经济低碳转型的时机选择。     

国有企业民营化的均衡模型

本文是来自于中国近年来实行民营化改制实践的一个理论结晶。该研究在中国特定的渐进改革基础上 ,讨论了民营化发生的原因和阻力 ,以及国有企业的利益相关者在改制过程中的利益权衡行为 ,并根据它们的相互关系和目标行为建立了民营化的均衡模型。模型的核心是企业家的最优目标函数 ,这是关系到企业能否实现成功改制的关键。模型的约束条件反映了利益相关者的基本利益保障 ,不会由于改制而受到损害。因此 ,均衡条件的满足表明了最优化改制的实现。通过对模型的分析发现 ,能够满足民营化最优均衡的退出条件 ,就是国有企业退出的最佳时机选择。企业净资本价值、企业家对股权的收购值与职工补偿值之间的合理比例的区间 ,是形成民营化均衡模型的最优解的取值范围。模型的政策含义在于纠偏作用 ,尤其是政府实际的退出时机与改制均衡的最佳退出时机的不一致 ,对于职工利益的损害或缺乏企业家最优目标行为的改制 ,都是脱离了最优轨道的结果 ,需要进行纠正     

Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: Refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective

This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g., transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by sociotechnical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g., artifacts, knowledge, markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. Transitions are conceptualised as system innovations, i.e., a change from one sociotechnical system to another. The article describes a co-evolutionary multi-level perspective to understand how system innovations come about through the interplay between technology and society. The article makes a new step as it further refines the multi-level perspective by distinguishing characteristic patterns: (a) two transition routes, (b) fit–stretch pattern, and (c) patterns in breakthrough.     

The sequencing of reform in transition economies

In this paper, we examine the consequences of sequencing on the progress of reforms in transition economies. The paper uses panel logit models to determine whether or not progress in some reforms enhances the prospects for other reforms. We find that progress on small-scale privatization is associated with advances in several other reforms, perhaps because small-scale privatization creates lobbies for reform. Our estimations suggest that a comprehensive program of small-scale privatization is needed to stimulate large-scale privatization, trade, and banking reform in a country that has undertaken little reform. Moreover, if restructuring is to occur banking reform is necessary. We also find that relaxing the fiscal constraint stimulates large-scale privatization, restructuring, and trade reform. Finally, we find that negotiations about EU accession negotiations advance the transition but only in banking reform and competition policy. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 835–850.     

“宪政转轨论”评析

中俄改革的比较研究 ,一直是新兴的转轨经济学关注的热点。1 998年俄罗斯爆发金融和经济危机 ,激进改革的支持者一度趋于沉寂。然而 ,从 1 999年下半年开始 ,俄罗斯经济出现转机 ,2 0 0 0年经济增长居世界第一 ,GDP增幅达 8 3 %。与此同时 ,中国经济改革进入攻坚的中期阶段。在这一关键阶段 ,渐进改革积累的矛盾日趋严峻 ,同时还面临加入WTO市场化改革滞后的外在压力。毫无疑问 ,中国经济仍要进行重大调整和改革。在这一背景下 ,国内外经济学界又在进一步探讨中俄改革的道路和方式问题。本文是对目前讨论的一个著名观点“宪政转轨”论进行分析和批驳。     

论转型时期的社会分化与整合

我国当前正处于急速的社会转型时期,社会结构的快速分化对原有的整合方式提出了挑战,以至于在社会分化和整合之间出现了断裂,对我国的社会稳定产生了不可忽视的影响.在新形势下,我们必须建立一种新的社会整合方式以适应社会的急速分化,维护社会的稳定.     

中国南北过渡带山区生态旅游资源整合开发研究——以河南省为例

目前,山区生态旅游已成为深受都市民众喜爱的一大旅游亮点。中国南北过渡带因其特殊的气候和环境,有着丰富的生态旅游资源。河南省的西部、西南部和南部的伏牛山、桐柏山、大别山位于中国的南北过渡带上,拥有极其丰富的生态旅游资源,而特殊的地理位置为其联合开发提供了有利的区位条件。但因大部分山区地处偏僻,在生态旅游资源开发过程中,其基础设施、开发理念、环境意识及整体规划等还存在一定的缺陷,如何应对这些限制因素,是河南省发展山区生态旅游的关键。     

人民币升值能改变中国的贸易顺差吗

本文使用非线性平滑转换模型研究了人民币升值对我国贸易顺差的动态影响,研究发现在样本时期内非线性模型能更好地拟合两者的动态关系,在非线性条件下,当期人民币升值将会使贸易顺差增加,前两期人民币升值将会导致当期贸易顺差减少,人民币升值对贸易顺差的影响表现出很强的非线性门限特征。人民币汇率对贸易差额影响的时间路径像是一个"倒J-曲线"。2000年以来人民币汇率虽然一直在发挥着降低贸易顺差的作用,但是,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差形成的主要原因。     

How markets will drive the transition to a low carbon economy

This paper investigates the driving factors behind the transition to a low carbon economy. Here, we offer a two-part analysis: First, we examine the factors leading to the current level of cleantech development. To do so, we examine the impact of country-level economic variables (real GDP, market return, and turnover) and country-level institutional variables on patent intensity. Results from this analysis show that cleantech patenting activity is fostered by a supportive institutional environment that promotes innovation and low-carbon development through carbon pricing policies, country-level public R&D expenditure and human capital. Second, we extend the notion of ‘path creation’ to map out different pathways for cleantech development on a country-level within a real options framework, and offer a corresponding valuation of cleantech patents. Our estimates of total wealth creation through the development of cleantech patents by 2050 range from US$10.16 to US$15.49 trillion dollars (13%–20% of the world GDP in 2017) with investment growth from US$2.93 to US$3.71 trillion (3.7%–4.7% of the world GDP in 2017). The results from our analysis suggest that market forces will drive the transition to a cleantech economy.     

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.