State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions

We investigate the extent and type of state dependence in labor market outcomes for young low-skilled Australians. Our model allows for three labor force states, employment, unemployment and out of the labor force, and for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We find evidence of occurrence dependence, but no lagged duration dependence. A past employment spell increases the probability of employment in the future, but the length of the spell does not matter. A past spell of unemployment undoes the positive benefits from a spell in employment. Interpretations of these effects and implications for labor market policies are discussed.     

国有企业民营化的均衡模型

本文是来自于中国近年来实行民营化改制实践的一个理论结晶。该研究在中国特定的渐进改革基础上 ,讨论了民营化发生的原因和阻力 ,以及国有企业的利益相关者在改制过程中的利益权衡行为 ,并根据它们的相互关系和目标行为建立了民营化的均衡模型。模型的核心是企业家的最优目标函数 ,这是关系到企业能否实现成功改制的关键。模型的约束条件反映了利益相关者的基本利益保障 ,不会由于改制而受到损害。因此 ,均衡条件的满足表明了最优化改制的实现。通过对模型的分析发现 ,能够满足民营化最优均衡的退出条件 ,就是国有企业退出的最佳时机选择。企业净资本价值、企业家对股权的收购值与职工补偿值之间的合理比例的区间 ,是形成民营化均衡模型的最优解的取值范围。模型的政策含义在于纠偏作用 ,尤其是政府实际的退出时机与改制均衡的最佳退出时机的不一致 ,对于职工利益的损害或缺乏企业家最优目标行为的改制 ,都是脱离了最优轨道的结果 ,需要进行纠正     

后发经济体技术赶超中的转型陷阱

文章通过将中间产品生产厂商的异质性结构引入罗默三部门内生增长模型中,构建了一个基于垂直创新的技术进步模型。运用该模型对后发经济体技术赶超中不同阶段间过渡时存在的技术进步模式转型陷阱的问题进行理论性分析。通过研究发现,技术赶超过程中要依次经历专注模仿、模仿并且创新、专注创新三个阶段。后发经济体技术进步会从一个阶段进入下一个阶段,然而各个阶段间技术进步模式转型不是自然发生的,而是存在着转型陷阱。第一次转型会经历创新停滞陷阱,第二次转型可能会出现模仿陷阱,而陷入模仿陷阱的经济体在技术水平达到一定程度时会出现技术进步减缓甚至是倒退。后发经济体一旦陷入模仿陷阱将很难接近世界技术前沿,技术赶超也就无法实现。     

经济学的二重性和在政策分析中的角色

经济学具有二重性,即兼具科学性质和人文性质.作为科学的经济学只涉及解释手段的选择,不考虑目的的选择问题.这是因为:手段的效果可以通过事实经验地证明,而目的包含价值观和伦理因素,无法转换为纯粹经验的描述.虽然不符合实证原则,但是作为人文的经济学是作为科学的经济学的前提,作为人文的经济学讨论目的的选择.在目的选择的过程中,伦理、价值判断、政治哲学等因素起着决定性的作用.社会实现稳定和谐的最终基础是道义与共识.     

CORPORATE CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND HOW SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS MAY AFFECT IT

Abstract.  This survey paper examines existing theories of capital structure and related empirical tests with the aim to derive theoretical as well empirically testable predictions about the implications of the soft budget constraint for corporate capital structure. We show that the soft budget constraint syndrome is relevant for a variety of institutional environments, from central planning to capitalist economic systems, and consider features of company financing patterns in various institutional contexts. Special attention is paid to emerging and transition economies where, with the development of financial markets, companies reduce their financial dependence on the state and begin to borrow from a variety of sources. However, due to the persistence of soft budget constraints, corporate capital structure in transition and emerging economies may still deviate significantly from the capital structure of companies operating under hard budget constraints.     

共享资源治理制度转型中个体认知状态的实证研究

基于对认知行为与制度演化的认识,在偏好分层理论框架下,本文针对“既非家庭私有又非社会公有的被一定范围内私人共享”的共享资源治理制度转型,通过对南京市两次截面数据(2003年878个、2005年865个样本)的统计分析,考察了共享资源治理制度转型中个体认知状态:面临转型期复合场景信号作用,个体外层偏好关系和认知状态发生冲突———趋于支配共享资源决策权利、同时回避与之对应、对等的供给责任。对两次截面数据所做的方差分析显示,存在认知冲突的个体比例未发生显著变化,但各变量特征变化表明,新场景下治理关系的认知状态调整将有利于共享资源治理转型。     

MIND THE GAP: UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW EU REGIONS

Abstract.  The paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on regional unemployment during transition in Central and Eastern Europe. The focus is on optimal speed of transition (OST) models and on comparison of them with the neo-classical tradition. In the typical neo-classical models, spatial differences essentially arise as a consequence of supply side constraints and institutional rigidities. Slow-growth, high-unemployment regions are those with backward economic structures and constraints on factors mobility contribute to making differences persistent. However, such explanations leave the question unanswered of how unemployment differences arise in the first place. Economic transition provides an excellent testing ground to answer this question. Pre-figuring an empirical law, the OST literature finds that the high degree of labour turnover of high unemployment regions is associated with a high rate of industrial restructuring and, consequently, that low unemployment may be achieved by implementing transition more gradually. Moreover, international trade, foreign direct investment and various agglomeration factors help explain the success of capital cities compared to peripheral towns and rural areas in achieving low unemployment. The evidence of the empirical literature on supply side factors suggests that wage flexibility in Central and Eastern Europe is not lower than in other EU countries, while labour mobility seems to reinforce rather than change the spatial pattern of unemployment.     

转型时期弱势群体的社会救助

在社会保障制度的建立和发展过程中,社会救助最早建立.但是,现代的社会救助与早期的社会救助有本质上的区别.转型时期弱势群体的社会救助,是建立在一定的法规之上,具有社会性、制度性和强制性的社会保障制度.     

民主政治与社会和谐

社会和谐问题的关键,是搞好以民主法治为中心的国家治理。中国的制度变迁是经济和社会层面的变迁,是自上而下推动的改革型的变迁,在由权力集中到权力分散的制度转型过程中,稳中求进是中国实现社会和谐的经验总结,制度的设计不宜过于完美。民主政治是社会和谐的前提和归宿,是执政合法性的来源,没有民主政治就没有和谐社会。     

民间投资与产业转型——以浙江省为例

本文以浙江省为例,利用浙江改革开放后30多年的数据资料,对民间投资比重和三次产业的比重进行协整建模分析,分析结果表明,民间投资对浙江三次产业结构的变化起到重要的作用。民间投资比重上升是拉动浙江第三产业比重上升的原因,从而也说明了浙江第三产业的发展主要是依靠民间资本的投入;但对第二产业而言,民间投资对其的作用是反向的,这说明浙江第二产业的发展主要不是依靠民间资本的投入,而是依靠政府的投资。