Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features

Analysis of thirty inflation episodes in sixteen European transition economies, using the probit panel model with fixed effects, uncovers inflation triggers that overlap with those obtained in either developing or developed countries or both. However, we found some transition-specific features. Thus, the relative contribution of the triggers evolves as transition progresses, such that the early dominance of the output gap, the fiscal deficit, and elections are subsequently subdued by a rise in food and oil prices, the exchange rate regime, and the current account deficit. The last two triggers could be linked to deep financial integration in Europe and the consequent large flow of capital toward European transition economies in the 2000s, a phenomenon not observed in any other part of the world. In addition, the exchange rate regime as an inflation starter in transitional Europe may be due to its convergence with developed Europe and the resulting real appreciation of currency.     

Wage and employment effects of a wage norm

Most transition countries used tax‐supported wage norms in the early 1990s, as a part of their market liberalization programmes. This article analyses how a firm‐level tax (or subsidy) on deviations from a pre‐set wage norm may promote employment by rotating the labour demand curve perceived by the workers’ union around the value of the norm. We derive the conditions under which it yields a positive employment effect. We test the effect of the norm on the wages on a sample of Polish firms in 1990 and 1991. The data support the role of the wage norm on the position of the perceived labour demand curve and the role of the tax rate on its slope.     

Do Transition Economies and Developing Countries Have Similar Destinies?

This paper evaluates the potential of transition economies for achieving sustainable improvements in living standards vis-à-vis developing countries based on their productivity performance. The comparison is made using a bootstrapped Malmquist productivity index and its technological and efficiency change components. The results of estimation indicate that transition economies enjoy significantly higher increases in technical efficiency than developing countries with comparable rates of real GDP growth. Therefore, these results suggest that the former group of countries may have better growth prospects than the latter group, giving empirical support to Stern and Fries’ (Foreign Policy 111:164–165, 1998) optimism that transition economies are the “tiger” economies of tomorrow.

Idiosyncratic use of credit facilities by consumers in an emerging economy

A worldwide increase in household debt since the turn of the century has created considerable concern about the indebtedness of households, especially those in emerging economies that have been hit particularly hard by the global economic slump. In this study, the credit consumption of consumers in Swaziland (N = 264) was investigated by means of a survey that aimed to identify and describe factors that encouraged consumers' use of credit, the influence of credit on their buying behaviour when choosing major household appliances or furniture as well as consumers' knowledge of the conditions of credit facilities that were available for their use in retail. Findings revealed that consumers unequivocally appreciate the convenience that is associated with credit, specifically to cope with unexpected purchases, to benefit from special offers and opportunity to afford expensive goods. These advantages apparently negate the negative consequences such as high interest rates and strain on household budgets. Mean scores that were obtained in the knowledge test that only reflected upon credit agreements that respondents have actually entered into in the past, confirmed their ignorance pertaining to their contractual obligations and their consequent vulnerability. Consumers' age and gender seem to have noteworthy consequences for efforts to enhance informed consumer decision‐making. Younger females were significantly better informed that their older counterpart while the reverse was true for males, although differences were not significant. The significant inverse relationship between income and the LS‐means for the credit knowledge test differ from findings in developed countries and provide valuable opportunity for further investigation.     

长株潭国家级烟草物流园竞争力研究

长株潭烟草物流园区作为国民经济的重要基础设施,对振兴湖南烟草行业具有重要的现实意义。文中分析了物流园区的竞争力,进而从技术、制度、规模、人才、交通、经济、低碳等方面对长株潭国家级烟草物流园的竞争力进行了研究。     

人民币升值能改变中国的贸易顺差吗

本文使用非线性平滑转换模型研究了人民币升值对我国贸易顺差的动态影响,研究发现在样本时期内非线性模型能更好地拟合两者的动态关系,在非线性条件下,当期人民币升值将会使贸易顺差增加,前两期人民币升值将会导致当期贸易顺差减少,人民币升值对贸易顺差的影响表现出很强的非线性门限特征。人民币汇率对贸易差额影响的时间路径像是一个"倒J-曲线"。2000年以来人民币汇率虽然一直在发挥着降低贸易顺差的作用,但是,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差形成的主要原因。     

Institutional environment and firms' sources of financial capital in Central and Eastern Europe

The external business environment is a major determinant of which sources firms select to obtain financial capital. We examine how the regulatory, political, and financial dimensions of the institutional environment influence the extent to which firms rely on informal sources of financial capital. The analyses of data from 2869 firms in twenty-six transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) indicate that ineffective regulatory system, underdeveloped financial system, and government corruption are strong determinants of firms' reliance on informal channels for financial capital. We also find that smaller firms are more vulnerable when the local financial system is underdeveloped and the regulatory institutions are less effective in these transition economies. A subgroup analysis of firms' forms of establishment shows that private firms are sensitive to the level of development of the local financial system and state-owned enterprises are particularly sensitive to the degree of corruption.     

The geography of air freight: connections to U.S. metropolitan economies

Despite the rapid growth of air freight shipments, much of the existing literature on the geography of air transportation has paid more attention to passenger travel than air freight. The purpose of this paper is to elevate our understanding of air freight by determining which specific variables most influence and shape the geographic distribution of air freight by metropolitan area using stepwise regression analysis. The empirical results suggest a regression model of five independent variables was the most parsimonious solution where the final model accounted for 71.1% of the variation in air freight shipments by metropolitan area (MA). The most important predictor was the traffic shadow effect, where less populated MAs under the traffic shadow of larger MAs tended to generate lower levels of freight. The model also suggested that other key predictors included the employment market share in transportation-shipping-logistics industries, per capita personal income, the number of medical diagnostic and supplier establishments, and above average wages in high technology. Overall, metropolitan markets with diverse and efficient ground support systems, freight forwarders and other transportation services, a more affluent population, an intense agglomeration of medical laboratories and related suppliers, and a well paid skilled workforce engaged in computer systems design and electronic product manufacturing are more likely to ship freight by air.     

基于聚集经济的产业集群理论模型

为了扩大产业集群规模,我国地方政府竞相出台各种优惠政策,极力降低企业的准入门槛.从理论上看,上述政策的作用是有限的.本文在分析集群企业成本和市场均衡的基础上提出了扩大集群规模的两种方法,认为提高聚集经济才是最根本的方法.