关于在中国钢铁工业降低能耗和减少能源成本的研究——基于系统动力学理论

钢铁工业在中国属于高能耗工业,煤和电又是钢铁制造的主要能量来源.目前钢铁工业在中国的工业化进程中由于中国经济的转型而处于转型期,而钢铁需求近几年来急速增长也进一步扩大了能源需求.另一方面,由于政府的宏观调控,煤炭和电的价格自1980年以来也在快速增长.巨大的能源需求导致高能耗,而越来越高的能源价格也进一步增加了钢铁制造的成本.激励于降低能耗和减少能源成本的紧迫需求,本文构建了系统动力学模型来帮助探寻相关政策,目的是为了寻找钢铁行业在其转型期内缓解能源问题的方法.此模型有助于学习一个复杂的动态问题,因此能更好的帮助理解能源相关政策的可行性及有效性.测试结果表明大部分可选择的政策仍具有成本效益.然而,如何去实践操作这些政策措施依旧是关键,因为某些政策诸如能源税和研发补贴的可行性在现实世界中仍然面临质疑.另一个结论发现:发展回收废钢的技术有可能有效的缓解二氧化碳排放,且可操作性相对较强.     

重庆主城规划转型与理念——以重庆渝中区规划为例

重庆市渝中区作为主城规划的重点和关键,在直辖前后,其规划转型有七个显著特征,一是规划指导思想从单纯注重经济增长转变到促进社会全面发展;二是规划管理从注重局部转变到整体建立体系;三是规划调控从改善居住条件为主转变到致力于城市整体功能完善;四是规划布局从推动半岛开发为主转变到全区域整体协同发展;五是规划策略从大规模旧城改造转变到推动旧城有机更新;六是规划手段从定点拆除违法建筑为主转变到综合整治空间环境;七是规划技术从平面分析为主转变到三维仿真虚拟现实等先进技术运用。新时期,规划工作提出了八项规划理念和方法,一是追求新区与旧城的和谐共生是构建和谐城市的战略目标;二是强化"一极三区一带"的功能区划是整体协同发展的合理空间布局;三是加快储备地块按规划改造是健全城市功能的迫切要求;四是合理定位重点区域的功能是建设服务强区的基本保证;五是加快《渝中半岛城市设计》的实施是突显城市个性特色的主要内容;六是坚持"下半城"保护与更新是延续城市文脉的必由之路;七是推进城市景观综合整治是提升城市艺术的有效措施;八是确保城市规划的法定地位是城区有序发展的重要保障。     

人口红利有多大

本文用一个含中青年人对幼年人抚养和对老年人赡养的世代交叠模型分析人口变动对储蓄率的影响,得到了一些新的结论。其中较重要的是：①快速的生育率下降对储蓄率没有大的正影响（储蓄率只在人口转变时期小幅度上升）;②幼年一中青年人口比率变动对储蓄率的影响力比老年一中青年人口比率变动对储蓄率的影响力小得多;③快速的生育率下降虽然引起经济增长率下降,但它同时引起人均消静永久性提高．     

经济体制转型策略的决定机制与内在逻辑--激进与渐进转型策略的回顾与再思索

从计划体制向市场体制的转型,对经济学本身的发展和演化带来了巨大的变革和影响,转型方式和策略的争论也持续了相当长的一段时间。本文在对转型策略争论回顾的基础上,认为从计划体制向市场体制的转型方式取决于原计划体制内部的利益冲突和矛盾积累程度。本文明确提出转型的激进程度取决于原计划体制内部的矛盾积累程度。     

Inflation Targeting,Fiscal Policy,and the Exchange Rate Regime

Until recently, Turkey’s economy was characterized by high inflation, undisciplined public finance management, and a fragile banking system and experienced multiple economic crises. After the economy was hit by another crisis in 2001, the central bank became independent, adopted inflation targeting as the monetary policy framework, and implemented reforms to adopt a more stringent fiscal policy. Inflation rates decreased to single-digit levels within 3 years after the independence of the central bank. This article analyzes the end of the high inflation period in the context of monetary and fiscal policy interactions within a Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in which monetary and fiscal policies are allowed to switch between different regimes.     

Spectrum management reform: Rethinking practices

Unparalleled growth in wireless communications has increased the pressure for more spectrum to support more users, more uses and more capacity. To alleviate that pressure, major regulatory changes were introduced in several countries in two key areas of spectrum management, namely spectrum assignment and allocation. This paper analyzes those changes and discusses strategies and tactics for deregulating the use of radio spectrum. Spectrum management reforms are considered within the theoretical framework of transition economics, which is concerned with optimal reform speed and sequencing. The paper shows how Anglo-Saxon and European countries have been implementing gradual reforms. Meanwhile, Central American reformers have chosen a fast transition from command-and-control regulation to market mechanisms. Transition economics is used to evaluate the advantages and drawbacks of different spectrum reform strategies.     

International monetary policy transmission through banks in small open economies

This paper studies the international transmission of monetary policy through banks in small open economies using the examples of Switzerland and Canada. We assess the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy for Switzerland and the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy for Canada. In both country cases, we focus on the international bank lending and the international portfolio channel, which make opposing predictions about how monetary policy transmits internationally through banks. Our results on the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy through banks in Switzerland are consistent with a role for the international portfolio channel, but we find no evidence for the traditional international bank lending channel. The results on the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy in Canada suggest that foreign lending by Canadian banks is affected through both channels, which work as predicted and largely balance each other.     

What expenditure does Anglosphere foreign borrowing fund?

This paper examines the extent to which foreign borrowing funds private investment, consumption and government expenditure in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand (the Anglosphere), advanced economies which have been the world's largest international borrowers since 1990. Using a bivariate predictive regression model, we estimate the relative importance of these expenditure aggregates as predictors of their external deficits, and hence foreign borrowing. Overall, based on quarterly macroeconomic data for the period 1990–2011, the evidence suggests that foreign borrowing has not financed higher household consumption in these economies over recent decades, with the possible exception of the United States. While results concerning government spending are mixed due to policy reaction, business cycle and public-private saving offset effects, strong results for private investment augur well for the sustainability of this grouping's foreign borrowing.     

Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies

The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 illustrates how financial turmoil in advanced economies could trigger severe financial stress in emerging markets. Previous studies dealing with financial crises and contagion show the linkages through which financial stress are transmitted from advanced to emerging markets. This paper extends the existing literature on the use of financial stress index (FSI) in understanding the channels of financial transmission in emerging market economies. Using FSI of 25 emerging markets, our panel regression estimates show that not only advanced economies FSI, but also regional and nonregional emerging market FSIs significantly increase domestic financial stress. Our findings also suggest that there is a common regional factor significantly affecting domestic FSI in emerging Asia and emerging Europe. Furthermore, the results from a structural vector autoregression model with contemporaneous restrictions indicate that although a domestic financial shock still accounts for most of the variation in domestic FSI, regional shocks play an important role in emerging Asia.     

Exit and transition: Exploring the survival status of Airbnb listings in a time of professionalization

This study analyzes the survival status of shared and non-shared listings in the peer-to-peer accommodation market. Using a large data set from Airbnb in Beijing, we identify 8640 shared listings and 50,741 non-shared listings. We then investigate the exit event and the identity transition event for both types of listings by applying a discrete-time hazard model. Our results suggest that, for the exit event, the two types of listings show significant differences in terms of survival determinants, including response time, tourism specialization, market volume, professionalization, and Covid-19. For the identity transition event, we find that internal flow exists in the market, mainly from shared listings to non-shared listings, and this flow is influenced by certain factors (i.e., capacity, facility, rating, reviews, minimum stay, service quality, tourism specialization, market volume, platform professionalization, and Covid-19).