Rational expectations in the foreign exchange market? Some survey evidence

Although many papers have already proposed empirical models of currency crises, the timing of such crises has received relatively little attention so far. Most papers use indeed a static specification and impose the same lag structure across all explanatory variables. This, by construction, prevents from specifically timing the crisis signals sent by the leading indicators. The objective here is to fill this gap by considering a set of dynamic discrete choice models. The first contribution is to identify how early in advance each explanatory variable sends a warning signal. Some indicators are found to signal a crisis in the very short run while others signal a crisis at more distant horizons. The second contribution is to show that state dependence matters, albeit mostly in the short run. The results have important implications for crisis prevention in terms of the timeliness and usefulness of the envisaged policy response.     

The “Forgotten Lands”: An Institutional Analysis of Post-Soviet Transitions

This article provides an institutional critique of the analysis of the post-Soviet transition. It seeks to demonstrate that (i) an absence of a thorough institutional analysis, (ii) unrealistic marketization programs, (iii) conflicting ideological perceptions for the role of the state, and (iv) persistent systemic problems of state planning have constituted significant constraints to the transition away from the Soviet style planned organization of production and distribution. Preservation of the Soviet mode of production, in turn, inevitably led to a fundamentally flawed policy approach and guided the former Soviet bloc toward an unproductive and damaging path-dependence. This path-dependence contributed to retarding the process of cumulative causation and capped the influx to the joint stock of knowledge, both of which remain crucial for progressive institutional adjustment.     

资源经济转型背景下的山西省战略性新兴产业选择与确立——兼谈文化旅游业作为战略性新兴产业的必要性

作为＂国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区＂的山西,在科技水平、资金实力、人才储备等方面确实还存在较大差距的现状下,战略性新兴产业的科学选择与政策导向就显得尤为重要。本文在明确评价指标与选择方法的基础上,借助综合云模型得出了山西战略性新兴产业选择与确定的标准,提出＂科学构建‘有所为有所不为’的战略框架、积极实施管理技术和金融服务协同驱动战略、切实提高战略性新兴产业的示范和衍伸作用＂等相应建议,并对旅游业作为战略性新兴产业的必要性进行了论述。     

Barriers to SME Growth in Slovenia

The paper is based on the findings of a research project which aimed to identify the critical barriers to small business growth and development in Slovenia. The key barriers identified in the research included factors linked to the institutional environment including bureaucracy, and to external financial constraints including the high cost of capital. Internal organisation and resource issues, and social support through local development coalitions were found to be less important. The research was based upon a sample survey of small firms in Slovenia, and on an econometric analysis of the sources of firms' growth. This provided evidence that firms' growth was negatively linked to firms' size, and that growth was reduced by the presence of institutional and financial barriers. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications.     

Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK

This paper describes the approach to developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK, being pursued in a major new inter-disciplinary research project. The project aims (a) to learn from past transitions to help explore future transitions and what might enable or avoid them; (b) to design and evaluate transition pathways towards alternative socio-technical energy systems and infrastructures for a low carbon future; and (c) to understand and, where appropriate, model the changing roles, influences and opportunities of large and small ‘actors’ in the dynamics of transitions. The paper describes the approach, which builds on the work of Dutch researchers on transitions and transition management using a multi-level framework of niches, socio-technical regime and landscape, as well as on other parts of the innovation systems literature. It also describes its application to several outline transition pathways to a low carbon energy system in the UK. The pathways embrace both the evolution of the physical and institutional infrastructure changes and the roles of both large actors, e.g. multinational energy supply and distribution companies, national governments, major investors, and small actors, e.g. households, innovators and entrepreneurs.     

黑龙江省税收流失测算

税收流失不仅严重影响到国家财政收入的规模,而且在税收流失的过程中产生的一系列不良的经济效应,会逐渐渗透到经济发展的各方面。黑龙江省国有经济比重大,税收流失的内在机理、形式以及影响都有其自身的特点,其税收规模与经济增长呈正相关,税收流失规模低于全国水平,但其流失规模有增加的趋势。应规范政府职能,在一定时期内捋清税费关系,减轻纳税人的额外负担。抓住时机进行税制改革,使纳税人税收负担趋于合理。进一步完善征收管理法,加大对偷逃税款的惩罚力度,提高纳税人违法成本。     

高校规模经济下财务风险控制初探

随着高等教育由精英化到普及化,这种规模经济带来的扩张态势,使高校财务风险日益显现。怎样识别、规避、防范以至排除风险是高校财务工作的重心。文章结合高校工作的实际情况,在分析高校财务风险现实表现上,有针对性的提出控制措施,旨在通过这种控制措施来保障高校财务工作的顺利进行,以期达到良性循环的效果。