Bayesian assessment of dimensionality in reduced rank regression

We consider Bayesian inference about the dimensionality in the multivariate reduced rank regression framework, which encompasses several models such as MANOVA, factor analysis and cointegration models for multiple time series. The fractional Bayes approach is used to derive a closed form approximation to the posterior distribution of the dimensionality and some asymptotic properties of the approximation are proved. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation and the method is applied to growth curve data and cointegrated multivariate time series.     

城市空间扩展与"精明增长"中国化

阐述了美国城市蔓延及“精明增长”对策,综合国内外学者对“精明增长”中国化的观点,指出我国城市空间扩展借鉴“精明增长”理念应注意三个问题,并据此提出“精明增长”中国化的相关建议。     

The hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Asian countries - evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach

ABSTRACT

This study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption – economic growth literature for 12 Asian countries. Our results from a recently developed hidden cointegration technique uncover rich and significant relationships between negative and positive components of the variables under consideration. In particular, we find evidence to support the neutrality hypothesis in five countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand), the growth hypothesis in four countries (India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), and both growth and conservation hypotheses in three countries (China, Malaysia, and New Zealand). These findings suggest that appropriate economic policies should be elaborated on the basis of the country’s specific hydroelectricity consumption–growth nexus. Finally, our new evidence suggests that the lack of stable relationship between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth documented in previous studies for some of these countries could be due to the failure to properly account for the nonlinearity property in the data.     

Economic Growth with Imperfect Protection of Intellectual Property Rights

This paper examines the growth effects of intellectual property right (IPR) protection in a quality-ladder model of endogenous growth. Stronger IPR protection, which reduces the imitation probability, increases the reward for innovation. However, stronger protection also gradually reduces the number of competitive sectors, in which innovation is easier than in monopolistic sectors. With free entry to R&D, the number of researchers in each remaining competitive sector increases, but the concentration of R&D activity raises the possibility of unnecessary duplication of innovation, thereby hindering growth. Consequently, imperfect rather than perfect protection maximizes growth. Welfare and scale effects are also examined.     

中国城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析

为探讨我国城市化与经济增长之间的相互作用和相互影响,文章依据1978~2004年的时序数据,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法,对城市化水平与经济增长的关系进行动态计量分析。结果发现,经济增长是城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因,经济增长对城市化产生较大的正向冲击效应,而城市化对经济增长的作用强度不大;城市化水平受人均GDP影响的效应逐步增强,受自身影响的效应不断减弱,而人均GDP受自身波动影响的效应不断上升,受城市化水平影响的强度逐步下降。对我国城市化与经济增长关系的深入认识,有利于各级政府在推动城市化和促进经济增长的过程中采取合理对策,避免走入误区。     

改制型民营企业的成长能力及其影响因素——与原生型民营企业的对比分析

通过对浙江省改制型民营企业和原生型民营企业的423份问卷调查，对比分析发现，目前的改制型民营企业正处于成长阶段，企业成长能力低于原生型民营企业，技术创新、民间融资、公共关系、业主角色和机构融资环境五层面的八个因素影响着改制型民营企业的成长能力，但影响改制型民营企业和原生型民营企业成长的因素存在差异。     

经济周期性波动与适度调节

改革以来,经济周期性波动的变化特征说明了我国经济的稳定性与抗风险能力增强;经济波动的根源是生产与消费的矛盾,矛盾激化到一定程度,经济运行就表现较大幅度的波动;市场条件与生产条件相背离是生产与消费矛盾激化的市场表现;生产条件短期是难以改变的,而市场条件的改变又是相对迅速的,宏观调控的重要作用就是要适时地调整并改变市场条件,使之与生产条件相适应;需要注意的是,这种调整应该适时适度,否则,反而会进一步加剧经济的较大幅度波动。     

Government financing in an endogenous growth model with financial market restrictions

Summary. In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. In the presence of binding regulation, there is always a unique equilibrium. We perform four alternative policy experiments; a change in the seigniorage tax rate, a change in the seigniorage tax base, a change in the income tax and a change in the fiscal-monetary policy mix. We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and it has an ambiguous effect on inflation. An increase in income tax financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government finance is growth reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Under the specification of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate. Received: March 20, 2000; revised version: June 26, 2001     

复杂性科学观下的高科技企业成长机制与成长指数设刮

复杂性科学打破了线性、均衡、简单还原的传统范式，开创了一种非线性、演化、复杂系统的新范式。高科技企业的成长由于具有非线性、动态性和自组织等复杂系统的基本特征，更适合于纳入到复杂性科学的新范式中研究。本文从高科技企业成长机制的复杂性特征入手，分析其成长机理，构建高科技企业适应性成长机制模型，并采用成长指数对高科技企业成长性进行评价，试图进行这方面的一些开创性研究。     

中国教育与经济增长关系的实证分析

通过对1978-2004年数据的分析,对中国教育与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究.结果表明,表征教育总量水平的财政教育支出对经济增长呈显著的正向作用,初等教育对经济增长的作用不显著,中等教育与高等教育对经济增长的作用十分显著.其中,中等教育的作用显著为正,而高等教育的作用显著为负.还考察了我国(1978-2004年)不同文化程度的人口对经济增长贡献的差异,并试图就职业教育对经济增长的贡献作初步探讨.