基于CVM法评估石家庄世纪公园使用及服务价值

随着城市化进程的加快和城市人口的高度集中,城市公园的功能日益突出,但也易被改变用途.基于CVM调查法,调查评估石家庄世纪公园的使用状况及其服务价值.结果表明,(1)公园的辐射范围主要为30分钟的距离,游人以中年和老人为主;(2)运动是游客的主要活动类型,不同年龄段活动形式呈多样化、活动区域差异较大,林荫道为所有年龄段青...     

成长企业面临并购威胁的动态模型

以Shleifer与Vishny股市推动型并购理论为基础,本文提出了成长企业面临随机并购威胁的动态新模型．具体分析了在随机的股票市场产生定价错误和收购者预期有协同效应收益的情况下,利润最大化企业面对并购威胁所采取的防御性红利支付策略。本模型运用可靠性理论的“风险率”概念。不但解释了并购活动和观察到的成长型企业的红利支付行为,还导出了关于反并购成本影响目标企业价值的可验证性推论。     

Livelihood roles of cattle and prospects for alternative land uses at the wildlife/livestock interface in South Africa

The emergence of wildlife ranching as an alternative land use option to agriculture, in Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs), has cast renewed interest on the role of cattle farming in rural livelihoods in areas close to wildlife parks. This study analysed the contribution of cattle to livelihoods and relationships between cattle and potential wildlife land uses in rural areas near Kruger National Park. Data were collected through household surveys, key informant interviews and community workshops. About 11% of households studied owned cattle, and cattle income constituted 29% of total household income. Benefits from cattle were also derived by households without cattle. About 71% of households had at least three sources of income, reflecting diversity of livelihoods. Wildlife related land uses were perceived by some households as threatening cattle production, whilst others viewed them as opportunities for alternative livelihoods. We conclude that cattle production has important livelihood roles, but is not sufficient as a driver of economic development in these areas. Incentives to encourage diversification of livelihoods at the wildlife/livestock interface, with possibilities for rural communities to explore wildlife based land uses should be put in place. In addition, land use policy and planning in such areas should focus on creating institutional mechanisms through which programmes integrating conservation and rural development goals can benefit rural communities.     

Analyst estimation revision clusters and corporate events,Part I

Summary This paper uses periods of unusually heavy earnings estimate revision activity by analysts to assess the relative usefulness of corporate information events (CIEs) in firm valuation. Because accounting information is more readily available, newsworthy and accessible, we hypothesize that CIEs that focus on financial statement information trigger greater analyst revision activity over a shorter period of time than CIEs that offer strategic or “soft” information. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. In Part II, we examine investor response to revision clusters that accompany different CIEs.We thank the Editor, an anonymous referee, Joe Cooper, Todd Doersch, Tony Greig, Kent Konkol and Marc Sievers for helpful suggestions and discussions. We also thank Mehmet Ozbilgin and James Su for programming during the planning phase of this project, and Jinyoung Park for research assistance during its execution. We are very grateful to Thomson Financial, CCBN and Reuters Data for providing data used in this study. Bagnoli and Watts thank the Krannert Graduate School of Management andPurdue University for financial support.     

基于改进收益法估值模型的周期性行业公司估值研究

依据典型周期性行业上市公司潍柴动力2011—2020年的财务指标及相关宏观经济指标数据,运用H-P滤波法、岭回归分析和灰色新陈代谢马尔可夫模型,改进传统收益法估值模型。结果显示：宏观经济因素作为影响周期性行业公司价值的重要变量,对周期性行业公司的折现率具有显著的解释能力,对其永续增长率解释能力不显著;岭回归分析法和H-P滤波法能量化宏观经济对估值模型参数的影响,采用灰色新陈代谢马尔可夫模型预测自由现金流可提高估值精准度。     

A股估值的多变量模型分析

本文首先对影响A股估值的各种因素进行归类、分析和选择,确定四大类因素中的市盈率、每股净资产、公司治理结构、宏观市场预期为建模的核心变量;然后,以股票价值由现实基础价值和未来价值损益两部分构成为原则,再结合这几个变量和股票价值的因果和相关关系设定其各自的函数模型;最后,将这些单一变量的函数模型作为复合变量进行回归和再构造,得到两个不同状态下的A股估值模型,并做出实操性评价。     

The relevance of quantifiable audit qualifications in the valuation of IPOs

How useful are audit qualifications to financial statement users? We analyze a sample of 204 firms that went public at the Athens Stock Exchange over the period 1987–2002. For 149 of these firms, auditors report quantitative estimates of the amount by which assets are overstated and/or liabilities are understated in reported financial statements. We find that underwriters and their affiliated analysts do not incorporate the negative information provided by these qualifications into offer prices and earnings forecasts. Investors, however, appear to efficiently impound the negative implications of the audit qualifications into stock market prices within the first day of trading. The results suggest that underwriters tend to align their interests with the interests of their clients, the old stockholders, at the expense of the new stockholders. They also suggest that the practice of reporting quantifiable qualifications in audit reports is valuable to investors given that they are disclosed by an expert.     

Hydro One IPO

The case describes the initial public offering of Hydro One, one of the largest ever in Canada. The focus is on the financial statement analysis and business valuation of Hydro One from the perspective of a potential institutional investor. The case discusses several alternative valuation methodologies, with particular emphasis on the peculiarities of performing a prospective analysis for a rate‐regulated entity.     

股权质押与公司估值:理论与实证

本文基于2000—2020年我国A股上市公司数据,探讨了控股股东股权质押对上市公司代理问题及其估值的非线性影响。研究发现,控股股东股权质押比例较低(高)时将会缓解(加剧)上市公司的代理问题,从而使其估值上升(下降)。进一步分析显示,随着控股股东股权质押比例的提高,上市公司的财务约束和财务困境水平先降后升,呈U形变化;与此同时,控股股东高股权质押比例降低了上市公司增量现金的边际价值,增加了其审计费用和违规频次。从企业异质性来看,国企子样本中上述关系大多不显著。本文研究对进一步理解股权质押的内在运行机制和经济后果有一定参考意义。     

MCV——寿险公司内含价值评估理论的最新发展

市场一致性价值评估方法建立在金融经济学与公司理财原理基础之上,是内含价值评估方法的创造性发展.它不仅更加适应于复杂波动的金融市场,而且更加适用于对分红产品、投资连结产品等具有内含选择权和保证的寿险公司的评估.未来随着各国寿险市场产品的日趋复杂,市场一致性价值评估方法预计将会更得到广泛的运用.