The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms

This study shows the market value of gold mining firms contains a premium for the option to close. The sample uses 41 gold mining producers listed on the Australian Stock Exchange from 1987 to 2013. The premium of the market price over the present value of cash flows is isolated and a pooled cross‐sectional regression tests the degree of association between that premium and theoretical option premiums. The results show market prices incorporate a premium reflecting the option to temporarily close operations. The magnitude of the option premium to close depends on whether firms are out or in the money options.     

价值调整协议的市场博弈——资本对赌

价值调整协议是一种高风险高收益的投融资手段,它:一方面,能使投资方获得高额的回报;另一方面,给融资方实现快速发展提供了契机。本文通过一些价值调整案例对对赌双方的风险和收益以及双方实现共赢的策略进行了分析和探讨。本文认为,只要"价值调整协议"条款设计合理,各个环节处理得当,就会起到双向激励的作用,是一种值得推广的,非常好的投资方式。     

公益林生态效益价值居民支付意愿实证分析——以贵阳市为例

以贵阳市公益林为研究对象,采用条件价值评估法（CVM）,通过设计问卷、调查实施,对贵阳市居民公益林补偿的支付意愿（WTP）及影响因素进行了分析。结果显示：（1）73.6%贵阳市居民家庭对公益林生态效益价值有支付意愿,平均意愿支付额为每户家庭每年人民币213.96元;（2）支付意愿受社会经济因素综合影响,其中年龄、收入水平及环境关注态度对支付意愿具有显著影响,是影响支付意愿的主要因素。在对居民支付意愿影响因素进行分析的基础上,提出了一些建议性政策。     

上市公司资产评估与交易定价关系研究——基于2010年上市公司数据分析

本文以2010年沪深两市上市公司资产评估与交易定价为研究对象,对沪深两市整体资产评估与交易定价情况进行描述性统计,并结合行业、交易类型、板块等因素分析评估价值和交易价格之间的关系,研究表明,上市公司资产评估价值已经成为交易定价的重要参考依据,行业、交易类型、板块因素对评估价值和交易价格之间的关系存在一定影响。     

Investment decisions,net present value and bounded rationality

The Net Present Value maximizing model has a respectable ancestry and is considered by most scholars to be a theoretically sound decision model. In real-life applications, decision makers use the NPV rule, but apply a subjectively determined hurdle rate, as opposed to the ‘correct’ opportunity cost of capital. According to a heuristics-and-biases-program approach, this implies that the hurdle-rate rule is a biased heuristic. This work shows that the hurdle-rate rule may be interpreted as a fruitful strategy of bounded rationality, where several domain-specific and project-specific elements are integrated and condensed into an aspiration level. The paper also addresses the issue of a productive cooperation between bounded and unbounded rationality.     

Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline

There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of pollination worldwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price elasticities of − 1.5 to − 0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator-dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories - namely fruits, vegetables, and stimulants - will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does not take into account the strategic responses of the markets.     

Monetary valuation of aircraft noise: A hedonic analysis around Amsterdam airport

In densely-populated countries and in particular in large metropolitan areas, the presence of so much human activity causes all sorts of negative externalities, for example traffic noise disturbance. These externalities call for corrective measures by the government. Economists have developed a number of procedures that provide reasonable estimates on the monetary value of some amenities and externalities. In this paper we develop a spatially-explicit hedonic pricing model for house prices in order to quantify the social cost of aircraft noise disturbance in monetary terms. While focusing on aircraft noise around Amsterdam airport in the urban fringe of the Amsterdam region, a key point in our analysis is that we account for background noise. We do this by taking multiple sources of traffic noise (i.e. road, railway and aircraft noise) into account simultaneously and by setting threshold values for all three sources of noise above which sound is generally experienced as nuisance. Based on our regression results we conclude that a higher noise level means ceteris paribus a lower house price. Air traffic has the largest price impact, followed by railway traffic and road traffic. These model outcomes can subsequently be used to estimate the marginal and total benefits of aircraft noise reduction in the studied area around Amsterdam airport. We find a marginal benefit of 1 dB noise reduction of 1459 Euro per house, leading to a total benefit of 1 dB noise reduction of 574 million Euros.     

Habitat preservation and restoration: Do homebuyers have preferences for quality habitat?

This research examines homebuyers' preferences for nearby riparian habitat, an important issue because quality riparian habitat competes for water resources with other activities in semi-arid regions and because federal and local governments allocate significant resources to riparian habitat preservation and restoration plans. Riparian vegetation surveys comprising comprehensive measures of the ecological characteristics of riparian habitat were completed in the metropolitan Tucson study area and the data incorporated into a hedonic analysis of single family residential house prices. The results indicate that high quality riparian habitat adds value to nearby homes and that instead of indiscriminately valuing “green” open space, nearby homebuyers distinguish between biologically significant riparian vegetation characteristics. This research also suggests that it is worthwhile to account for the heterogeneity of natural amenities in hedonic analysis. Furthermore the results suggest that riparian preservation and restoration programs are more likely to receive public support if they incorporate features that are preferred by nearby homeowners. Our study's results show that household preferences for existing riparian habitat match features of the ecologically-functional riparian habitat envisaged in a recently funded joint federal-city urban riparian restoration project in Tucson, Arizona.     

资本市场错误定价如何影响公司并购

中国资本市场已进入全流通时代,股价的变动是否会影响公司的并购行为尚无定论。本文选取2007-2013年沪深两市A股上市公司并购事件作为研究样本,通过Probit回归模型,验证了市场错误定价假说。研究表明在控制其他影响因素的条件下,股价错估是驱动上市公司并购活动的重要因素之一,股价被高估的上市公司更有可能发生并购活动,并利用公司层面的短期股价高估主动发起并购。     

全球失衡背景下中国外部财富分析

外部财富动态为理解全球失衡及其治理问题提供了新标准和新视角。与我国的经常账户持续盈余相对应,我国外部财富由负转正,但是外部财富的价值效应为负。运用外部财富的一个分析框架,对我国外部财富价值效应影响因素的分析表明,我国外部头寸与人民币名义汇率和实际利率存在显著的相互关系,与人民币实际有效汇率和美元实际利率则没有显著的相互关系。外部财富动态分析对于我国内外平衡的宏观经济政策选择具有丰富的政策含义。