Figuring Out the Fed—Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency

In this paper, I use a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate a model of private‐sector behavior that does not feature private‐sector knowledge of the monetary policymaking process and, instead, leaves firms and households uncertain about how monetary policy is set. The private sector entertains two competing views of monetary policymaking, which I estimate. Firms and households use Bayes' law on a rolling data sample to distinguish between those two models. I use this setup to study the evolution of beliefs about the Federal Reserve and the possible gains from transparency.     

高额外汇储备对我国宏观经济的影响及政策建议

从新的外汇体制运行起,我国外汇储备急剧上涨,长年居于世界首位,2013年达到3.82万亿美元,创历史新高。适当规模的外汇储备可以抵御外部经济冲击,但高额外汇储备也增加了资产损失的风险。因此,如何改革使高额外汇储备保值增值,优化外汇储备结构是我们需要思考的问题。     

就业增长导向的美联储复苏政策——美联储经济复苏政策逻辑评析

本轮美国经济衰退被认为是自上世纪“大萧条”以来最严重的衰退,衰退后就业复苏迟缓,就业远未回到正常水平。建筑业就业改善迟缓拖累了整体就业复苏。尽管美国就业市场面临重大挑战,但就业增长疲弱的主因是周期性的而不是结构性的,这意味着可以通过货币政策来解决就业问题。关联储的复苏政策是以刺激就业增长为导向的,在中短期通胀预期低于长期目标值的情况下,关联储采取了较为激进的非常规政策以刺激就业增长。     

How to Weigh Unemployment Relative to Inflation in Monetary Policy?

The monetary policy mandate for the Federal Reserve and of the Riksbank are essentially the same and boil down to stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and employment or unemployment around a long‐run sustainable rate. The relative weight on stabilizing unemployment or employment versus stabilizing inflation may be close to one. A positive unemployment‐gap forecast normally calls for a positive inflation‐gap forecast.     

洪河国家级自然保护区春季林栖鸟类多样性研究

2003年至2007年春季,利用鸟类环志方法对洪河自然保护区春季林栖鸟类多样性进行研究。共记录到鸟类8目20科90种4082只,为洪河国家自然保护区记录鸟类种数的42.07%。雀形目鸟类种类和数量均最多,共78种4029只,占鸟类种数的86.67%,鸟类数量的98.70%。利用多样性指数和均匀性指数方法对洪河保护区春季鸟类多样性进行了分析,其多样性指数为3.4015,均匀性指数为0.7559。从年份看,2005年春季鸟类多样指数值为最高,2003年最低;各年度多样性指数为2005(3.2513)2004(3.2506)2007(3.1506)2006(2.9281)2003(2.6718)。均匀性指数则2007年最高,2003年最低;各年度均匀性指数为2007(0.8139)2004(0.8006)2005(0.7787)2006(0.7307)2003(0.7307)。     

四川王朗自然保护区开发生态旅游模式研讨

四川王朗自然保护区为珍稀动物——大熊猫栖息地,风光旖旎,环境至今仍保持着原始面貌。本文根据保护区近3年开发生态旅游已取得的明显效益,提出强化“自然保护”与开发生态旅游的模式。     

基于效用视角的自然保护区周边农户薪柴消费影响因素分析——以秦岭太白山自然保护区为例

基于秦岭太白山自然保护区周边社区农户微观层面的调查数据,采用ologit模型和ols模型,从薪柴带给农户的效用角度,定量分析影响薪柴消费的主要因素。研究结果表明:家庭经济条件对薪柴消费有负向影响,女性家庭成员个数、户主年龄有正向影响,农户生计和劳动力配置非农化程度有负向影响,农户居住的地理位置以及能源消费习惯也是影响薪柴消费的重要因素。     

安邦河自然保护区旅游承载力分析

通过对安邦河自然保护区实地调查,对其生态旅游环境承载力进行分析、计算,结果为日生态旅游容量1158人次,年生态旅游容量208440人次;提出其今后生态旅游发展对策。     

Land tenure, population pressure, and deforestation in Haiti: The case of Forêt des Pins Reserve

Haiti, with a forest cover estimated at 3% of all land area, has experienced severe degradation of its natural resources and a significant change in its land cover. While deforestation in Haiti is obviously multifaceted, one issue emerges from previous empirical analysis in explaining deforestation: land tenure. This study focuses on the causes of deforestation in Haiti, particularly in Forêt des Pins Reserve, using the annual average area of cleared forest per household as the dependent variable. Data were collected with the use of a survey instrument administered to 243 farm households in 15 villages inside the Reserve. Tobit Regression results reveal that household size, education of head of the household, land tenure regime, and farm labor are important factors affecting land clearing.     

黄河三角洲地区耕地后备资源开发利用分析探讨

本文根据黄河三角洲地区的耕地后备资源的现状、分布、总量构成及特点，依据适宜性评价原则进行分析研究提出在保护生态环境的前提条件下，探索黄河三角洲地区耕地后备资源的开发以及土地资源的可持续利用。