The role of international reserves holding in buffering external shocks

An extended literature analyses the accumulation foreign exchange holding observed in many developing and emerging countries since the 2000s. Empirical studies on the self-insurance motive suggest that high-reserves economies are more resilient to financial crises and to international capital inflows volatility. They show also that pre-crisis foreign reserve accumulation explains post-crisis growth. However, some papers suggest that the relationship between international reserves holding and reduced vulnerability is nonlinear, meaning that reserve holding is subject to diminishing returns. This article devotes more attention to the potential nonlinear relationship between the foreign reserves holding and macroeconomic resilience to shocks. For a sample of nine emerging economies, we assess to what extent the accumulation of international reserves allows to mitigate negative impacts of external shocks on the output gap. While a major part of the literature focuses on the global financial crisis, we investigate this question by considering two sub-periods: 1995–2003 and 2004–2013. We implement threshold VAR model in which the structure is allow to change if the threshold variable crosses a certain estimated threshold. We find that the effectiveness of reserve holding to improve the resilience of domestic economies to shocks has increased over time. Hence, the diminishing returns of foreign reserve holding stressed in the previous literature must be qualified.     

国际投资头寸表编制的国际比较研究

近二十年来经济、金融全球一体化的迅速发展,主要表现为全球贸易与投资规模的不断扩大以及资本流动的加剧,这些都会使一国经济面临的不确定性增大。为这种不确定性风险进行衡量和控制,编制一个完整的国际帐户体系就变得必不可少。通常我们所说的国际帐户是指国际收支平衡表(Balance of Payments,简称BOP),然而根据国际货币基金组织的规定,一个完整的国际帐户体系不仅包括国际收支平衡表,还应包括一个反映一国是否为债权国或债务国的国际投资头寸表(International Investment Position,简称ⅡP)。本文阐述了国际投资头寸表和国际收支平衡表的关系、ⅡP的编制原则；在此基础上对美英日等国的ⅡP进行了简要分析,并对中国编制和公布ⅡP进行了前瞻分析。     

解析美联储降息的背景、原因和影响

基于经济指标预期值整体恶化的微妙背景，关联储2007年9月18日降息50个基点。这不仅本身构成了对经济走向变化的“官方确认”，而且是美国经济周期转向中货币政策制订者的必然选择，其最根本的原因在于“次级债风波”对实体经济的负面作用已经超出预期水平。关联储降息将对美国实体经济产生滞后的扩张性影响，加剧美元贬值，同时可能导致国际货币体系稳定受到负面影响。尽管受到美联储降息影响，中国出口仍将维持高速增长，货币政策将进一步趋紧，同时将经受全球流动性过剩的更大考验。     

企业:一种人力资本使用权交易的粘性组织

本文沿着科斯的思路 ,把企业理解为一种人力资本使用权交易的粘性组织。企业用权威关系替代价格机制 ,而权威关系能够减少交易费用的原因在于“组织粘性”的存在。企业是一种有粘性的契约 ,而市场是一种无粘性的契约。企业的组织粘性把关键员工和企业联在一起 ,并使企业在引入企业家才能时有更低的临界交易效率。企业的边界由交易费用和组织粘性共同决定。     

论马克思的制度分析

马克思的制度分析适用于长期的制度变迁分析,而新制度经济学的分析则适应于短期的制度变迁分析,并且马克思的长期制度变迁分析具有历史性、演进性和动态性;在马克思看来,建立在私有财产制度基础上的生产过程存在剥削和掠夺性的一面;马克思不仅重视制度公平性分析,而且注重对制度的性质进行分析,这也是马克思不同于制度经济学家的重要一点。     

对人与自然和谐关系的思考

人与自然和谐相处是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要内容.马克思关于人与自然和谐关系的论述为我们正确认识和处理人与自然的关系,探求人与自然和谐发展的有效途径,提供了重要的哲学基础和方法论启示.人与自然和谐发展的实现路径是:端正态度,转变观念,自觉实现人类与自然的和谐;建设资源节约型社会,走可持续发展道路;转变经济增长方式,推广集约型经济发展模式;健全环境立法,提高人们的环保意识.     

开放经济条件下我国货币内生性问题研究

1994年以来,基础货币投放中外汇占款所占比例越来越高,我国货币供给表现出很强的内生性。本文把货币内生性放在开放经济的框架下进行研究,在对货币内生性基本原理进行阐述的基础上,对强制结售汇与盯住汇率制度组合下我国货币供给的内生性问题进行探讨,分析了货币内生性对我国货币政策的影响,在此基础上就如何应对挑战、提高货币政策有效性提出了政策建议。     

Liquidity Risk,Bank Networks,and the Value of Joining the Federal Reserve System

Reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal loan demand was one reason for founding the Federal Reserve System. Nevertheless, less than 8% of state‐chartered banks joined the Fed in its first decade. Banks facing high liquidity risk from seasonal loan demand were more likely to join the Fed in its first decade. We also find evidence consistent with the notion that banks could obtain some indirect access to the discount window through interbank transfers. Some banks apparently joined the Fed to pass through discount window liquidity to other banks via the interbank network.  Joining the Fed increased member banks’ lending.     

The Macro-prudential aspects of loan-to-deposit-ratio-linked reserve requirement

Micro-prudential regulation is sometimes more focused on the health of the financial institutions and pays less attention to the objective of sustainable intermediation and financial stability in the long run. A macro-prudential policy is formulated to reduce this myopic tendency. This article shows analytically how Loan-to-Deposit-Ratio (LDR)-linked Reserve Requirement (RR) can be used to apply counter-cyclical measures in banking industry by providing disincentive mechanism when a bank operates outside the preferred operational corridor. At the lower limit of LDR, a requirement of higher RR can push banks to extent more loans in order to support economic development in a period of economic bust. At the upper limit of LDR, a requirement of higher RR and/or capital can also provide disincentive to slow down its investment activities in an economic booming period and manage liquidity risk better.     

Do Federal Reserve Bank presidents’ interest rate votes in the FOMC follow an electoral cycle?

We find that Federal Reserve Bank presidents’ regional bias in their dissenting interest rate votes in the Federal Open Market Committee follows an electoral cycle. Presidents put more weight on their district’s economic environment during the year prior to their (re-)election relative to nonelection years.