Federal Reserve System Rising: The Expansion of Board Veto Authority on the Eve of the Great Depression

Most scholars agree that restrictive Federal Reserve System (FRS) policies contributed to the depression’s duration and severity. FRS policy mistakes are attributed to faulty ideas, poor leadership, and decentralised institutions. Extant scholarship treats ideas as constraints which systematically led policy-makers astray. This paper instead focuses on the dual roles ideas play in shaping institutions and uniting coalitions behind institutional projects. It traces the rise and fall of New York FRS Governor Benjamin Strong’s ‘great idea’ that the FRS should promote international monetary stability. Declining support for New York’s internationalism enabled a rural Board faction to expand its veto power from 1928 to 1930. In the critical year following the 1929 stock market crash, Board obstruction of New York FRS attempts to lower its discount and bill rates caused its investments to fall faster than the system’s bond portfolio expanded, forcing outstanding system credit to contract. Beyond showing that the Board’s pre-depression rise mattered, the paper speaks to broader debates about how ideas become empowered to shape policies and inform interests.     

环境不确定性、多元化经营与权益资本成本

以2009~2012年我国 A 股上市公司为研究样本,检验环境不确定性及多元化经营对公司权益资本成本的影响。研究发现,环境不确定性越高则公司的权益资本成本也越高,同时在高环境不确定性背景下,多元化经营将有助于缓解环境不确定性与权益资本成本之间的正相关关系;进一步,对于政府控制公司,多元化经营能够更显著地降低环境不确定性所导致的代理问题,并且若其所处地区政府干预程度较低,则多元化经营缓解环境不确定性与权益资本成本之间正相关关系的作用越大。     

黑龙江挠力河自然保护区生物多样性分析

挠力河自然保护区保存有较完整的原始湿地景观,几乎包含三江平原湿地生态系统的所有类型,在生物种类组成、区系特征、群落结构或生态系统水平上,均反映了三江平原原始湿地特征,是我国东北三江平原原始湿地生态系统的缩影,在全球同一生物带中,具有生物多样性和湿地生态系统保护的典型代表意义。     

The Monetary Policy Model

Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals and the policymakers' model of the economy. An austere version of the model, with no information asymmetries, is valid only to a first approximation but nevertheless provides core insights to short- and long-run monetary policy. In this model, effective policy requires clarity of policy goals and clarity of the policy model as to how the economy works. The central bank must enjoy sustained credibility in the markets. Communication should focus on policy fundamentals and the monetary authorities’ understanding of the economy, both of which are enhanced by continued research by monetary policy experts. JEL Classification E5     

Reflections of a Professional Life-Long Fed Watcher

Policymaking at the Fed and Fed watching by the markets have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. In the 1970s, targets and instruments shifted constantly, and the prevalent belief in the Fed was that its deliberations should be as opaque as possible. Moreover, communications technology for those who would divine the Fed’s direction was limited to snail mail, faxes, and telephones. In the early 1980s, the Fed began to focus more directly on inflation and on increasing transparency. The future is likely to reveal continued restrictive Fed policy and an inverted yield curve due to eight factors that contribute to this “conundrum.” Diversification away from the dollar by foreign central banks is likely to put continued pressure on the value of the dollar and some modest upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, but a dollar meltdown is unlikely. Despite this relatively benign outlook, however, Fed watchers will continue to be busy and valued. JEL Classification E5, E58     

Enhancing Fed Credibility

The Fed's credibility regarding control of inflation helps to anchor public expectations of price stability. This makes the Fed's actions more predictable in any given set of circumstances and thus strengthens the monetary policy transmission mechanism and shortens policy lags. The importance of the Fed's credibility can be illustrated by the consequences of its absence in the 1970s. This paper discusses the roots of the Fed's current credibility: a systematic approach to controlling inflation, transparency of its policy decisions, and timely communication of the decisions and the considerations upon which they are based. The paper also discusses areas in which there is room for further improvement. It argues that the most important future step would be to adopt specific inflation targets. Such a step would not only enhance credibility, it would help to focus policy-making itself. While there are some risks to establishing specific numerical targets, these risks can be managed and are outweighed by the benefits of explicit targets. JEL Classification E58     

存款准备金率调整对商业银行流动性创造的影响研究——基于互联网金融冲击的情境

商业银行的超额准备金与法定存款准备金都存放在中央银行的特定账户上。二者之间此消彼长的关系,决定了中央银行可以依托调节存款准备金率来影响商业银行的流动性创造行为。本文着眼于存款准备金率政策实施的动态过程,通过整理2011—2018年20家商业银行的非平衡面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计(System-GMM)方法进行动态面板回归模型估计,考察以P2P为代表的互联网金融快速发展对大型国有银行与中小银行流动性创造的冲击与影响,实证研究证实存款准备金率对我国商业银行的流动性创造行为会产生显著影响。互联网金融的发展虽然对不同银行流动性创造水平的抑制存在一定的异质性差异,但是对银行总体流动性创造能力具有一定的抑制作用,因此会在一定程度上削弱存款准备金率政策作用效果。     

人民币实际有效汇率波动对外汇储备影响的实证研究:1996～2004

本文首先简单回顾了外汇储备需求函数的研究文献;然后利用我国1996~2004年的月度数据对我国的外汇储备需求函数进行详尽的实证研究,结论表明,消费品零售总额、人民币实际有效汇率指数及其波动性、国内外利率差、进口依存度、进口的波动性均显著影响我国的外汇储备需求;最后本文从汇率水平的调整、汇率浮动区间的扩大、利率市场化以及稳定进口波动性等方面,为缓解我国外汇储备的快速增长提出了相应的政策建议。     

Money in the time of crypto

This paper investigates the evolution of cryptocurrencies. By nature and essence, Bitcoin challenged and implicitly threatened central bank money and its role in the monetary system. Meanwhile, central banks have been studying cryptocurrencies and launched pilot projects on their own digital currency, the Central Bank Digital Currency. Until recently, most economists considered Bitcoin merely as a speculative asset; however, the El Salvador decision in 2021 to establish it as a legal tender (through the Bitcoin Law) questions the status quo perception of Bitcoin. Given El Salvador’s legal obligation by law of their acceptance, allowing tax payments to the government and debts to be settled using Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Law challenges the boundaries of money. In light of the El Salvador experience, we consider different perspectives on the nature of money, allowing us to reject or include Bitcoin inside the money spectrum.     

市场化、南北差距及其根源——基于作物性质的政治经济学考察

中国经济发展的区域差异及其根源，一直备受学界关注。其中，市场化发育的区域差异是解释经济发展差距的重要线索。然而，市场发育区域差异的生成根源却未能得到恰当的处理与阐释。文章试图从作物性质的政治经济学维度，构建"政府管制-作物性质-逃避策略"的逻辑框架，探讨区域经济发展差距背后市场发育的决定机理。文章认为，如果将市场化进程视为政府管制放松的过程，那么管制放松就可以区分为主动管制放松与被动管制放松。由可实施逃避策略所决定的被动管制放松及其所触发的市场化进程往往具有不可逆性。由此，逃避策略选择的区域差异性，将导致区域市场化发育程度的不同进而带来经济增长的差异。基于全国1997-2016年面板数据的实证分析表明：由"无政府主义"的作物种植所表达的管制逃避策略，能够显著促进市场化的发育程度；作物种植差异及其所蕴含的种植文化特性，共同决定了南北市场化差异；源于2013年全面开展的农地确权，进一步强化"南强北弱"的管制逃避，导致南北经济差异不断扩大。本研究有助于为中国区域经济增长差异提供新的洞见，从而为缓解不平衡不充分发展问题并推进中国区域经济的协调发展提供政策依据。