Central Bank Actions and Words: The Intraday Effects of FOMC Policy Communications on Individual Equity Volatility and Returns

We compare intraday impacts of the release of Federal Reserve decision announcements and of Federal Open Market Committee minutes between 2004 and 2015 on 1,997 equity return and volatility series. We find that returns are unresponsive to either news release, but conditional volatility increases for both, manifesting immediately after each information release, and persisting for 30 minutes post‐announcement. These effects are larger for decisions than for minutes. On stratifying firms by trading intensity, we find most “high trading intensity” firms respond to these announcements, while “low trading intensity” firms are less affected. Our results show that traders respond, albeit differently, to both sets of information releases.     

我国存款准备金管理研究

由于我国存款准备金政策执行时间跨度大,管理规定繁多,核定工作流程不规范,加之自2008年起,人民银行总行授权省级人民银行核定辖内地方性法人金融机构存款准备金和财政存款交存范围等,使得准备金管理过程中诸多问题逐步显现,存在一定风险。因此,需要客观反映存款准备金管理过程中存在的问题及潜在风险,重新调整地方性法人金融机构准备金交存范围核定工作流程,并提出进一步规范我国准备金管理的有效途径。     

我国外汇储备的溢出效应研究——基于引力模型的分析

本文采用2000-2015年199个国家和地区的外汇储备面板数据,基于引力模型理论,考察了我国高额外汇储备的溢出效应及对全球资产配置的影响。研究发现:我国外汇储备具有随地理距离递减的空间外溢效应,双边汇率制度关联会增加外汇储备持有比例的相似程度,而且这种溢出效应更多地表现在与中国金融发展水平类似、资本账户开放程度相近的国家之间。上述结论凸显了国家间加强外汇储备合作调整的战略意义。探究我国外汇储备的溢出效应,有利于发展中经济体更好地理解外汇储备的变动逻辑,对于完善外汇储备管理体制,参与国际宏观经济政策协调机制均具有一定的积极意义。     

盐城自然保护区的经济开发与保护

由于缺乏自然保护意识,人们在盐城自然保护区经济开发活动中,对滩涂自然资源造成了极大的浪费,对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。因此,本文在分析当地经济活动现状的基础上,提出如何引导人们的开发活动实现经济发展和自然资源持续利用的协调统一的具体措施。     

The Effect of Pricing on Demand and Revenue in Federal Reserve ACH Payment Processing

Because the automated clearinghouse (ACH) has been found to have lower social costs than paper checks, the Federal Reserve has been promoting more widespread use of ACH by lowering ACH processing fees. In this paper, we have obtained the first numerical estimates of ACH demand elasticities, a measure of the responsiveness of ACH demand to price changes. Various methods are employed to estimate the demand elasticities to determine how robust the estimates are. During the period 1985–1996, the Federal Reserve lowered the per-item price of interregional ACH, while the per-item price of intraregional ACH stayed constant. We take advantage of this unique pattern of historical price changes implemented by the Federal Reserve to estimate the effect of price changes on demand for ACH.We find that the volume of ACH processed by the Federal Reserve responds to changes in per-item fees, but the increase in volume that results from a price decline is very small and not statistically significantly different from 0, except in the case of debit origination. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve cannot expect to generate substantial additional volume by lowering its prices further. However, commercial banks may be able to increase the volume demanded by lowering their own ACH fees. We also examine how volume growth initiated by a price cut affects unit costs. Given the relatively large-scale economies found for ACH, volume growth leads to lower unit costs. However, to outweigh the revenues lost as a result of a price decline, ACH volume would have to increase by an amount much greater than our estimates indicate is likely. Consequently, a decline in per-item ACH fees likely would lead to lower net revenues.     

开放经济下的货币政策独立性:一个理论框架——兼论货币区的“三元悖论”之解

美国次贷危机引发本轮全球性金融危机凸显了以美国为核心的金融资本主义模式和以美元为核心国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区不可避免处于三元悖论困境。本文提出的贷款准备金政策框架模型能够解决货币区在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员保持货币政策独立性问题。     

国际储备的演进与储备货币的价值分析

进入新世纪全球国际储备规模快速扩张,结构显著变化,进一步凸显了当代国际货币体系固有的体制性缺陷。研究表明,主导新世纪国际储备的主权信用货币实际上只有主权而没有信用。因此,当代国际储备体系必须改革,中国的国际储备也应该调整。     

贷款准备金政策框架下的区域货币政策独立性

美国次贷危机引发这轮全球性金融危机凸显了以美国为核心的金融资本主义模式和以美元为核心国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区建设不可避免会陷入三元悖论困境。本文提出在贷款准备金政策框架下,货币区能在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员仍能保持货币政策独立性。     

人民币升值带来的财富幻觉探讨

本文从我国现有的外汇管理制度和面临的特殊发展阶段及发展背景出发,指出人民币对外升值对内贬值将是我国现阶段和未来所面临的一种重要现象。人民币升值及其升值预期将带来我国外汇储备快速积累,在结售汇制度下发生货币倍增效应,给我国带来明显的财富效应;人民币对内贬值即通货膨胀扩大了我国GDP的规模和国际排名,也给我国带来了财富效应。本文指出人民币对外升值对内贬值带来的财富效应在一定程度上是一种财富幻觉,并对这种情况下的宏观经济政策提出了对策建议。     

商业银行风险管理模型的性质及启示

随着新资本协议的实施,各种估值定价和风险计量模型开始在我国商业银行大量应用。本文对商业银行风险管理模型的五大基本性质及其衍生性质进行了研究,并进一步给出了有效防范模型风险的若干建议。