广西进出口贸易分析与对策的实证研究

广西对外贸易的快速增长很大程度上推动了其经济的增长。基于广西2006～2009年统计年鉴数据,采用统计分组、综合指标和归纳推断等方法对广西进出口贸易进行了实证分析,阐述了进出口贸易中存在的问题并提出了相应的对策和建议。     

水产品出口促进山东渔业经济增长的机制分析

论文利用出口依存度、贡献率和拉动度等统计方法,测算出近十年来山东水产品出口依存度超过30％,对渔业经济增长贡献率超过100％,年均拉动度近5％,结论表明水产品出口对山东渔业经济增长起着正向的拉动作用。根据研究结论并结合山东省渔业经济和水产品出口现状,这种拉动机制具体表现为,在渔业经济生产部门存在闲置资源的基础上,水产品出口通过需求扩大、规模经济和技术进步三条途径来实现对渔业经济的拉动。     

Competitiveness of Egyptian cotton exports in the international market

Cotton plays a vital role in the Egyptian economy by meeting domestic and export demands,contributing significantly to agriculture,industry,export earnings,and providing a cash income to roughly one million small farmers.This paper examines the competitiveness of Egyptian cotton exports（ECE） in the international market during the period 1990-2006.It mainly aims at investigating the trends in cotton exports over the studied period,analyzing the competitive position of Egyptian cotton by employing several economic and trade indices,and identifying the key factors that influence Egypt＇s cotton exports to the world.The results revealed that the total quantity of ECE has fallen from 196.8 thousand tons in 2003 to 87.2 thousand tons in 2006.It also shows a high degree of geographic concentration of ECE,into India,Italy,the Republic of Korea,and Japan.Together,these markets imported about 50%of ECE during 1990-2006.The competitive advantage of Egyptian cotton would appear dependent on quality not price.Japan,the Republic of Korea and Italy presented the most stable markets for ECE.Linear regression analysis suggests that a one percent increase in the Egypt-to-USA export price ratio leads to a decrease in ECE by about 27.8 thousand tons.Such analysis has also shown a positive and significant effect of the World Trade Organization on ECE.     

The effects of exports on facility environmental performance: Evidence from a matching approach

This paper employs matching techniques to investigate the effects of facility export status on environmental performance. Using facility-level criteria air emission data in the US manufacturing industry, we find the industry-specific effects of export status on emission intensity, measured by emissions per value of sale. In some industries, there is consistent and robust evidence supporting the superior environmental performance of exporters relative to non-exporters in terms of emission intensity for all criteria air pollutants tracked. In other industries, we find weak evidence that exporters appear to have a higher emission intensity than non-exporters. This industrial heterogeneity in the effects of exporting on the environment is closely related to industrial characteristics including pollution abatement capital expenditure, trade costs, capital intensity and others.     

Why has China’s vertical specialization declined?

Vertical specialization (VS) is quantified by the VS share, which measures the average import content per dollar of exports. A characteristic of China’s export trade is its strong dependence on assembly and processing activities. To take proper account of this, China’s VS shares should explicitly distinguish processing export production from other production. We estimate China’s annual VS shares from 2000 to 2012—the latest year for which a special input–output table is available that makes such an explicit distinction. We find that VS shares increased from 2000 to 2004 and subsequently started to decrease. To explore why it has declined, we introduce a new structural decomposition approach. We find that the decrease of the VS share appears to have been driven mainly by the substitution of imported intermediates by domestic products. This occurred in particular in the production of exports, which implies an upgrading of China’s position in global value chains.     

The rise of IT services clusters in India: A case of growth by replication

The Indian IT services sector has grown from small beginnings at the bottom of value creation to a major player in the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry. It commands a 55% share in the global market for IT services. India's IT sector value proposition in terms of low cost with large supply of high quality talent is compelling. As a result, India has become the premier choice not only for outsourcing IT services by the developed-world's multinational corporations (MNCs) but also for locating their own Global In-house Centers (GICs), which simultaneously compete and partner with local firms. This gave rise to six additional clusters beyond the earliest, largest and robust cluster, Bangalore. The paper provides a review of relevant literature; develops a conceptual framework for evaluation of clusters; and presents data and analysis with respect to relative size, growth, specialization, MNC presence and connectivity to local firms through expatriates and returning Indians, ,innovation; and discusses adequacy of ICT infrastructure for future growth. Although there are clear signs that the Indian IT sector has been moving towards a regime of providing high-end value added services, the sector's value proposition – lower cost combined with a large supply of high quality talent – remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple export clusters. Thus the sector's growth appears to be a case of growth by replication rather than innovation. The paper concludes that the Indian IT sector's value proposition in terms of lower cost combined with large supply of high quality talent remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple IT services export clusters. While the old adage, “people follow jobs” still holds for large part of the labor force, there is little doubt that the sprawling IT services clusters in India - with more to come from Tier II and Tier III cities – indicate, in fact, that “jobs follow talent." Both local firms and the MNCs, through their GICs, are pushing the boundaries of location farther and farther to continue to leverage cost advantage and available pools of talent.     

新阶段中国商品对俄出口研究

中国俄罗斯年开启了中俄交流的大幕。在这个时期,中国加大商品出口,平衡对俄贸易逆差已不容忽视。中国商品在俄罗斯市场具有明显的竞争优势,应借助俄罗斯中国年活动平台,促进相互了解和发展,优化产品出口结构,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场。     

How will the Belt and Road initiative advance China’s exports?

We examined 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 data from 49 countries to determine changes wrought by China’s Belt and Road initiative; we also used panel data regarding the Maritime Silk and Inland Silk Roads to test initiative effects on Chinese exports. Post-initiative infrastructure expansion and logistics performance improvements led to positive effects on China’s exports. Additionally, legal-system similarities and inland borders with trade partners had a more positive effect on Chinese exports in the Inland Silk Road, while population and free trade agreements were found to have a more positive effect on the Maritime Silk Road.     

改革开放以来影响广东省外贸出口因素的实证分析

本文分析了广东省外贸出口与进口、FDI、出口对象国的经济增长及人民币名义汇率等影响因素的长期均衡关系,然后分析了短期中广东省外贸出口量对各影响因素波动的反应。得出结论:长期中,广东省出口额与外国收入、进口额、人民币名义汇率之间存在着正相关关系,而短期内进口额和人民币名义汇率对出口影响较大。     

The determinants of service exports from Central and Eastern Europe

The transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have become important exporters of many types of services to Western Europe. We identify the sources of CEE’s advantages over competing exporters, such as India, China and Brazil, using disaggregated data on service exports and a novel estimation technique for the gravity equation. Our results indicate that the importance of geographical distance varies substantially across types of service exports. Geography is important for exports of construction services, but it has a negligible impact on computer‐related services. However, the relative quality of legal institutions influences trade across a broad range of service categories. The results demonstrate that aggregating services that are not homogeneous could conceal important differences in the effects of geographical distance and other variables on the pattern of service trade.