价值链空间形态演变下的治理模式研究--以集成电路(IC)产业为例

伴随经济发展、市场变化、技术演进，价值链的分离与整合在不同空间尺度中上演。其组织形态发生了巨大的变化，相应的其治理模式也随之改变。本文首先界定了价值链治理的概念，分析了价值链层级型、市场型、网络型、半层级型治理模式的特点。然后从独特的空间视角，研究价值链的形态演变，以及与其形态变化相对应的治理模式的改变。并以集成电路产业（以下简称IC产业）为例．系统地分析了IC产业价值链治理模式变化的过程．     

中俄跨境电商服务供应链发展研究——以全球速卖通为例

指出随着中俄跨境电商的迅猛发展,跨境电商平台之间的竞争不断加剧且竞争焦点逐渐从商品竞争过渡到供应链和整体服务水平的竞争。结合全球速卖通在俄罗斯的跨境电商服务供应链的运营情况,通过建立PEST-SWOT矩阵模型,分析全球速卖通在俄罗斯市场的服务供应链发展的竞争态势及宏观环境,并针对其存在的问题提出了优化路径。     

股票价格均值回归理论研究综述

随机漫步理论认为股票的价格是不能预测的,许多实证检验的结果也支持了这一结论。但是,近年来均值回归理论对随机漫步理论提出了挑战。从长期来看,股票价格呈均值回归是必然的;均值回归具有不对称性;政府行为对股票的均值回归具有一定的影响。     

Forecast quality improvement with Action Research: A success story at PharmaCo

There is a gap in the forecasting research surrounding the theory of integrating and improving forecasting in practice. The number of academically affiliated consultancies and knowledge transfer projects that there are around, due to a need for improvements in forecast quality, would suggest that many interventions and actions are taking place. However, the problems that surround practitioner understanding, learning and usage are rarely documented. This article takes the first step toward trying to rectify this situation by using the specific case study of a fully engaged company. A successful action research intervention in the Production Planning and Control work unit improved the use and understanding of the forecast function, contributing to substantial savings, enhanced communication and improved working practices.     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

海尔“人单合一”管理模式的演化路径及其价值实现机理——基于波粒二象性的理论视域

“人单合一”模式的演化路径可以用“人”“单”之间相互作用关系的变化过程进行描述,这一路径也可概括为“人的价值实现”从无到有地创生涌现,再形成一种独立力量,对“人单合一”体系以及各组织要素进行反向影响和塑造的过程。无论是表面上的二重性特征,还是在内涵层次、演化路径和发展趋势方面,“波粒二象性”与“人单合一”都具有紧密的对应契合性。文章在分析比较“波粒二象性”与“人单合一”对应契合关系的基础上,结合“人”与“单”之间由“分化对立”到“互补转化”再到“整合创新”关系转化的过程,分析阐释了海尔“人单合一”管理模式的演化路径及其价值实现机理。“波粒二象性”不仅为“人单合一”的内涵转变以及发展路径提供了机理解释,而且从跨学科的视角出发,为组织的管理实践与创新变革提供了思路启示。     

封闭式基金折价均值回归研究——基于协整分析

以我国仍在交易的25支封闭式基金为研究对象,利用每支基金从上市第2年到2010年12月的交易价格和净值的周数据进行实证分析。运用恩格尔-格兰杰两步法并进行Johansen协整检验,证实了我国封闭式基金折价存在均值回归现象。同时,误差修正模型分析结果显示,25支样本基金中有22支基金的交易价格与净值的误差修正项显著,说明封闭式基金的交易价格和净值的变动均会影响基金折价,其中交易价格变动对折价的影响更大。最后,提出我国基金投资者可通过投资折价较大的封闭式基金获得超额收益。     

基于供应链管理的企业营销渠道创新

传统渠道链的内在缺陷和新竞争模式的外在压力迫使企业必须通过渠道创新以获得新的利润和竞争力。本文在借鉴供应链管理优势的基础上,从组织结构、成员关系和管理模式创新三方面入手,提出渠道构建的逆向模式,以实现渠道的系统优化及各成员的长远利益最大,并使得市场的覆盖更为有效。     

战略联盟信息系统整合

分析了战略联盟信息系统整合的目的，必要性，存在的风险因素，提出了战略联盟信息系统整合的对策。     

Estimation of tail‐related risk measures in the Indian stock market: An extreme value approach

The purpose of the study is to estimate tail-related risk measures using extreme value theory (EVT) in the Indian stock market. The study employs a two stage approach of conditional EVT originally proposed by McNeil and Frey (2000) to estimate dynamic Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES). The dynamic risk measures have been estimated for different percentiles for negative and positive returns. The estimates of risk measures computed under different quantile levels exhibit strong stability across a range of the selected thresholds, implying the accuracy and reliability of the estimated quantile based risk measures.