Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

Monetary policy and risk taking

We assess the effects of monetary policy on bank risk to verify the existence of a risk-taking channel – monetary expansions inducing banks to assume more risk. We first present VAR evidence confirming that this channel exists and is particularly significant on the bank funding side. Then, to rationalize this evidence we build a macroeconomic model where banks subject to runs endogenously choose their funding structure (deposits vs. capital) and risk level. A monetary expansion increases bank leverage and risk. In turn, higher bank risk in steady state increases asset price volatility and reduces equilibrium output.     

Evaluating FOMC forecasts

Monetary policy outcomes have improved since the early 1980s. One factor contributing to the improvement is that Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC forecasts relative to private sector forecasts, the forecasts of the Research Staff at the Board of Governors, and a naïve alternative. We find that the FOMC output forecasts were better than the naïve model and at least as good as those of the private sector and the Fed staff. The FOMC inflation forecasts were more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the naïve model; for the period ending in 1996, however, they were not as accurate as Fed staff inflation forecasts.     

数字时代企业环境审计模式创新——基于环保政策响应机制的研究

企业规避环保责任的机会主义行为导致政府环保政策成效不显著。基于利益相关者理论构建环保政策利益相关者模型,并从环保权力、责任和信息三个角度分析企业的环保政策响应机制。研究发现：由于消费者缺位以及信息不对称等因素的影响,企业的环保政策响应水平较弱。政府应将环保政策施加于消费者,通过消费者来约束企业的行为;审计主体应当转变现有的审计模式,运用数字技术,与消费者合作共同完成审计监督的工作。基于此,提出一种基于消费者需求引导的综合环保政策及新型企业环境审计模式,建议政府应重视数字技术对产业的改造升级,充分考虑消费者的因素来制定环保政策并加大对企业污染数据实时监控的普及。     

Banks' environmental policy and business outcomes: The role of competition

By integrating the two areas of competition–performance and environment–performance, this research explores if competition matters in the relationship between environmental practices and interest margins in the market. A panel of 458 banks from 74 countries for the period of 2006–2016 is used, and the sample is further divided into developed and developing countries. This paper uses the system Generalized Method of Moments estimator to tackle potential omitted variable bias, endogeneity, and simultaneity issues. Without competition, environmental practices only affect banks in developing countries; however, the results show a significant impact for the full sample, including developed countries, when the competition is taken into consideration, suggesting that competition might play a role in the relationship of environmental practices and interest margins. In the full sample, competition impacts the relationship negatively after a moderate level of competition is reached in the market. The environmental practices in developing countries are prone to competition in the market. In developed countries, the competition is found to be lightly positively moderating the impact of environmental practices on interest margins. Based on these findings, it is recommended that developing countries should have a low or moderate level of competition to encourage environmental practices. For developed countries, however, high competition should be preferred to encourage banks to consider environmental practices as one of their core business strategies. These findings are found robust to different statistical estimators.     

Circular economy and the policy: A framework for improving the corporate environmental management in supply chains

The transition to the circular economy (CE) creates value through the closed-loop systems, reverse logistics, product life cycle management, and clean production in terms of corporate environmental management. During this transition process, the organization faces many barriers such as financial, organizational, technology-based, social, policy-related, market-based, and logistics-based barriers. The objectives of this study are to propose a framework highlighting policy-related barriers for a supply chain in the transition to CE and finally discuss potential implications on enhancing corporate environmental performance of a business. Further, this study evaluates the causal relationships between the policy-related barriers using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The application was conducted in an apparel firm in Turkey. From findings, lack of legislation for efficient CE (C4), lack of mandatory requirements and responsibilities for manufacturers/suppliers for the CE (C17), and lack of government support for environmentally friendly policies (C2) are revealed as the most important barriers, respectively. It is found that lack of attitude and awareness about CE in government institutions (C19) is the most influencing factor, whereas lack of effective recycling policies to achieve quality in waste management (C8) is the most influenced factor. The recommendations were developed for enhancing the corporate environmental performance of businesses through incentives and unique rewards, improving communication among stakeholders, the government's perception of CE and current linear economy, cooperation with nongovernmental organization (NGOs) and civil actions, the vision of government towards circular principles, the circular public procurement, the local governments in circular policymaking, and awareness of bureaucracy and government officials.     

The pro-cyclicality of risk weights for credit exposures: Driven by the retail segment

This paper examines the pro-cyclicality of implicit risk weights of credit exposures and the potential contribution of accommodative monetary policy using data for the Czech Republic. The empirical results indicate that risk weights behave pro-cyclically under the IRB approach and acyclically under the STA approach. The pro-cyclical behaviour of IRB risk weights is caused primarily by the retail exposures, the strongest effects being in the highest and lowest quantiles of risk weights. The risk weights for retail exposures behave pro-cyclically not only with regard to the business cycle, but also with respect to the financial cycle and house price growth. In addition, monetary policy easing contributes to the pro-cyclicality in higher quantiles of risk weights.     

Local fiscal multipliers and spillover effects: Evidence from Philippine regions

Fiscal policy in developed countries has been a rich topic since the Great Recession. However, research has remained limited for developing countries despite their similar use of fiscal policy and concerns about the efficiency of public spending. To help address this research gap, this paper provides a case study of multiplier effects of local government spending in regions in the Philippines as well as spillover effects of local government spending across regions. An instrumental variable based on the country’s intergovernmental transfer system is used to identify regional public spending in panel regressions. The local fiscal multiplier is estimated to be above one, where a 1-peso rise in spending by local government units in a region corresponds to a 1.2-peso rise in regional output. Multiplier effects are highest for capital expenditures and appear to be primarily driven by the services sector. Spillover effects are comparatively large, at around 1.8–2.0, highlighting the important role of domestic trade when stimulating regional economic activity.     

The impact of prudential toolkits on loan growth in Central and Eastern European banking systems

This paper examines the effects of prudential policy on loan growth in 11 Central and Eastern European banking systems, spanning the period from 2000 to 2015. Based on the measures taken by the authorities of our sample countries, we build several prudential indices. Additionally, we control for the effects of several country-specific factors and bank-specific characteristics. Finally, we test the homogeneity of these effects, accounting for cycle, ownership, and bank effects. Generally, the empirical findings reveal a negative correlation between prudential toolkits and credit growth, with a conspicuous impact for tools targeting lending activity. We see that the effects of a change in the lending framework on loan growth are heterogeneous when we account for crisis and cycle patterns. Furthermore, the interaction between ownership and crisis reveals that, in normal times, foreign banks recorded higher loan growth compared to domestic banks. The opposite is true in turbulent times. The analysis of interactions between credit-based measures and bank-specific variables show that the effects of prudential actions depend on the bank size and leverage.     

城市规划的政策属性

通过对相关文献的解读,认为我国对城市规划政策属性的认识随着社会发展在不断深化,可以分为三个阶段。基于城市规划作为公共政策的定位,从多个视角对城市规划的政策属性展开研究,认为城市规划要真正实现向公共政策的转型,关键是按照公共政策的属性,重新系统地建构城市规划学科知识体系,尤其是要将城市规划纳入整个社会系统,进行制度创新。