Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability

We examine whether the U.S. and German state governments pursue sustainable fiscal policies taking into account fiscal transfers. Using panel data techniques we investigate whether the debt‐to‐GDP ratio had a positive influence on the primary surplus (Bohn model). We show that including/excluding fiscal transfers changes the results. If fiscal transfers are not included in the primary surplus, the test results do not indicate that the U.S. and German state governments pursued sustainable fiscal policies. Our results also suggest that fiscal transfers were positively related to debt. These findings indicate that intergovernmental transfers have implicitly subsidized debts.     

Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process

This article formulates a bivariate point process to jointlyanalyze trade and quote arrivals. In microstructure models,trades may reveal private information that is then incorporatedinto new price quotes. This article examines the speed of thisinformation flow and the circumstances that govern it. A jointlikelihood function for trade and quote arrivals is specifiedin a way that recognizes that an intervening trade sometimescensors the time between a trade and the subsequent quote. Modelsof trades and quotes are estimated for eight stocks using Tradeand Quote database (TAQ) data. The essential finding for thearrival of price quotes is that information flow variables,such as high trade arrival rates, large volume per trade, andwide bid–ask spreads, all predict more rapid price revisions.This means prices respond more quickly to trades when informationis flowing so that the price impacts of trades and ultimatelythe volatility of prices are high in such circumstances.     

Explaining divorce rate determinants: new evidence from Spain

This article examines the main determinants of divorce rates in Spain for the period 1995 to 2010. According to the results, the so-called Express Divorce Law (passed in 2005) seems to be positively associated with divorce rates in the short term. Income level and growth, female employment rate, and the proportion of foreign population are also positively related to divorce rates. However, as expected, the percentage of conservative vote seems to have a negative impact.     

Serial and spatial error correlation

This paper demonstrates that jointly modeling serial and spatial error correlation results in a trade-off between the serial and spatial autocorrelation coefficients. Ignoring this trade-off causes inefficiency and may lead to nonstationarity.     

FDI是否促进了中国城市的郊区化?--基于卫星夜间灯光数据的实证检验

城市郊区化是国内外城市发展过程中不可避免的现象。伴随着城市化的不断发展,中国的城市郊区化问题也受到了越来越多的关注,但FDI 作为各个地方旧城改造和新区开发的重要力量,其对中国城市空间的形态塑造作用却被忽视了。文章基于单中心城市模型的理论假设,将FDI 因素纳入分析城市郊区化的框架,通过全球夜间灯光数据、Landscan 人口分布数据和中国行政区域矢量数据构造了中国城市市辖区层面的郊区化指数和蔓延指数,并利用2003-2013年中国地级及以上城市市辖区面板数据检验了FDI 对城市郊区化的影响。研究表明：(1)FDI 是促进我国城市郊区化的关键因素,FDI 占GDP 的比重每提高1%,我国城市郊区化的水平会相应地提高0.1%;(2)由于FDI 在我国存在区域分布的不平衡性,因此其对不同区域的城市郊区化的促进作用有所差异,外资进入显著地促进了东部地区的城市郊区化发展,但外资进入对中西部地区的城市郊区化的影响并不显著。因此,各地方政府应格外关注FDI 可能带来的城市低密度蔓延现象,并检视自身的城市发展战略。     

结构调整与技术进步对碳排放影响的空间效应分析

对1997～2012年中国分省域碳排放的数据进行详细测算,发现碳排放具有明显的空间相关性。利用空间面板数据模型分析发现,单位国内生产总值（GDP）能耗和能源结构碳强度对碳排放的影响较为突出。通过检验发现建立空间杜宾模型是最优的。结论：进一步加快产业结构优化升级,培育优势创新产业集群,推广清洁技术的利用,改善以煤炭为主不合理的一次能源消费结构,并充分考虑区域间的集聚效应,在碳减排活动中充分加强区域协作。     

Interactive data and retail investor decision‐making: an experimental study

The results of an experimental study of retail investors' use of eXtensible Business Reporting Language tagged (interactive) data and PDF format for making investment decisions are reported. The main finding is that data format made no difference to participants' ability to locate and integrate information from statement footnotes to improve investment decisions. Interactive data were perceived by participants as quick and ‘accurate’, but it failed to facilitate the identification of the adjustment needed to make the ratios accurate for comparison. An important implication is that regulators and software designers should work to reduce user reliance on the comparability of ratios generated automatically using interactive data.     

基于面板数据的中国商业银行效率实证分析

针对以往参数方法存在权重确定困难的问题,本文提出了一种基于面板数据的银行效率评价的非参数方法（BEE）,同时构造了相应的数学模型（M-BEE）。然后,应用（M-BEE）模型对中国四家国有银行、八家股份制商业银行2001-2008年的经济效率状况进行了实证分析,结果表明,八年间中国12家商业银行的综合效率呈现逐年递增趋势,纯技术效率呈现先下降后上升的U型特征,规模效率缓慢上升,变化不显著;2006-2007年我国12家商业银行的综合效率和纯技术效率整体上都有大幅提升;八家股份制银行的综合效率和纯技术效率均明显高于四大国有银行。