新疆科技人才外流影响因素研究

科技人才的大量流失严重制约了新疆地区的经济社会发展.本文利用新疆科技工作者抽样调查数据,采用二元Logistic模型及对数线性模型对科技工作者流失意愿的影响因素及交互作用进行实证分析.研究结果显示,学历、年龄、职称、政治面貌、生态环境、社会治安、检索科技文献资料难易程度、进修培训工作满意度和科研经费管理制度的满意度对科技人才流失均有显著影响.     

How to explain carbon price using market micro-behaviour?

In this article, we analyse the micro-behaviours of the emitting companies and financial intermediaries in the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) and their influence on carbon prices. Based on the full-sample community independent transaction log (CITL), the micro-behaviours can be observed in a closed system. The micro-behaviours of the emitting companies are divided into ‘compliance trading’ and ‘non-compliance trading’ based on the emitting companies’ trading motivations. The micro-behaviours of the financial intermediaries are measured by their influence on the total supply and demand in the market. Then, an AR-GARCH model is established to examine the dynamic relationships between carbon prices and the micro-behaviours of the emitting companies and financial intermediaries. The estimation results suggest that the prices–behaviours relationship is significant. Other important findings are as follows: (1) the mean value of carbon prices positively depends on the compliance trading of the emitting companies and the micro-behaviours of the financial intermediaries; (2) non-compliance buying increases the volatility of carbon prices, while the non-compliance selling stabilizes it and (3) the micro-behaviours of the emitting companies in the lower 50% in terms of emission levels have no significant influence on the mean carbon price, but their non-compliance buying stabilizes the carbon price.     

林区原木货场生产预报AR(p)模型的研究及应用

本文论述应用AR (p)递推最小二乘估计建立林区原木货场入库和销售预报模型 ,探讨了如何实现AR (p)模型变换为状态方程的方法 ,在此基础上应用Kalman滤波方程组对原木库存进行动态分析 ,并给出了应用实例。     

基于读者日志分析的模糊聚类研究

为了能及时了解读者对图书的需求及阅读动向,提出了建立一个读者兴趣模型,并在此基础上进行模糊聚类研究,从中挖掘出读者的阅读规律。     

地球物理测井在宁东煤田某勘探区中的具体应用

下面仅就测井在宁东煤田某勘探中岩层、煤的定性,定量解释方面做一些简单阐述。     

Final Year Accounting Undergraduates' Attitudes to Group Assessment and the Role of Learning Logs

Abstract

Group assessment now plays a significant role in higher education. Existing research has identified a number of benefits that derive from group assessment including the development of generic skills and the promotion of deeper learning. Despite its importance as a learning tool, there has been little research reported in the accounting literature, which has examined accounting students' attitudes towards the use of group assessment. This paper attempts to address this deficiency by exploring students' attitudes to the use of group assessment, in terms of group dynamics and generic skills development, in a cooperative learning environment within a final year undergraduate accounting module. In addition, the study analyses students' attitudes to maintaining a journal or learning log, which recorded the group's experience of completing the group assessment. Specifically, the study considers whether students' attitudes differ according to academic ability and it proffers explanations for the findings.     

计算机审计中的电子数据轨迹分析

不同阶段电子数据的操作都会留下表现各异的轨迹。从操作系统、计算机应用系统、数据传输、数据采集和分析等不同层面深入分析审计电子数据轨迹在计算机系统中表现形式,可以为审计人员提供有效的审计方法。     

Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation in a non locally compact setting

Maximum likelihood estimation is considered in the context of infinite dimensional parameter spaces. It is shown that in some locally convex parameter spaces sequential compactness of the bounded sets ensures the existence of minimizers of objective functions and the consistency of maximum likelihood estimators in an appropriate topology. The theory is applied to revisit some classical problems of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation, to study location parameters in Banach spaces, and finally to obtain Varadarajan’s theorem on the convergence of empirical measures in the form of a consistency result for a sequence of maximum likelihood estimators. Several parameter spaces sharing the crucial compactness property are identified. This research was supported by grants from the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fonds FCAR de la Province de Québec.     

FORECASTING GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES USING LARGE BAYESIAN VARS

This paper proposes a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model with common stochastic volatility to forecast global equity indices. Using a monthly dataset on global stock indices, the BVAR model controls for co‐movement commonly observed in global stock markets. Moreover, the time‐varying specification of the covariance structure accounts for sudden shifts in the level of volatility. In an out‐of‐sample forecasting application we show that the BVAR model with stochastic volatility significantly outperforms the random walk both in terms of point as well as density predictions. The BVAR model without stochastic volatility, on the other hand, shows some merits relative to the random walk for forecast horizons greater than six months ahead. In a portfolio allocation exercise we moreover provide evidence that it is possible to use the forecasts obtained from our model with common stochastic volatility to set up simple investment strategies. Our results indicate that these simple investment schemes outperform a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy.     

浅析安全操作平台中日志的过滤与范化

随着网络规模的扩大,多安全设备的统一管理问题进入人们的视线,安全运营中心(SOC)随之而生。文章简单介绍了SOC系统的工作原理,指出日志的预处理工作在整个系统中的重要性,从日志处理的角度对SOC的模块进行分类,并重点分析了关于日志预处理中用于去掉大量无用信息的过滤模块、用于将不同格式日志标准化、规范化的范化模块,提出切实可行的设计方案。