The ‘miracle’ of car ownership in Japan's ‘Era of High Growth’, 1955–73

The ‘Era of High Growth’ in Japan is well known for its ‘miracle’ economy, although the reasons why car ownership increased during this period have been largely ignored. Both the ‘miracle’ and the process of motor manufacturing have been viewed from the perspective of supply rather than demand. This article examines the ways in which the formidable barriers to mass car ownership were removed during this period by analysing quantitative data and also reconsidering narratives of Japanese manufacturing predicated on Japanese cultural uniqueness (nihonjinron). It considers the Japanese as consumers as well as workers, and concludes that car ownership is less a ‘miracle’ than a manifestation of Japan's process of modernisation during the twentieth century.     

Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

On the Aggregate Value of Recreational Activities: A Nested Price Index Approach Using Poisson Demand Systems

An important consideration in the development ofregulations and policies that administer naturalresources in an area is the value of the non-marketactivities supported by those lands. Little attentionhas been paid to the aggregate value of largegeographic areas. This analysis builds autility-theoretic price index and utilizes this indexto estimate an aggregate Poisson demand to valuebackcountry recreational hiking opportunities innorthern California.     

银行机构扩张、支付工具改进与城镇储蓄存款增长——制度变量对货币需求影响的一个分析视角

规模变量、机会成本变量及制度变量是决定货币需求的三个因素,但一直以来货币需求研究主要聚焦于规模变量及机会成本,而较少考虑制度变量的影响。本文以银行机构及支付工具作为制度变量,从理论推导与实证分析两个方面探讨其对货币需求的影响,结论表明改革开放以来商业银行机构扩张及支付工具的改进节省了城镇居民的现金需求,而推动了城镇储蓄存款的增长。     

Structural changes in the demand for food in Asia: empirical evidence from Taiwan

Many Asian countries are expected to undergo structural transformations in their economies and rapid urbanization over the next 25 years. The changes in tastes and lifestyles engendered by urban living are likely to have significant influences on food demand. Changes in marketing systems and occupational changes, closely linked with increasing GNP per capita, also may influence the demand for food. In this paper, estimates presented for Taiwan demonstrate that structural changes in food demand (as distinguished from changes due to income and price effects) have been significant factors driving the rapid changes in dietary patterns seen in East Asia over the past three decades. Because most previous demand studies have ignored the possible influence of structural shifts which are highly correlated with increases in per capita income over time, the effects of income on food demand have been overestimated.     

结构调整与需求空间

我国目前的经济增长已经进入了以消费为主导的发展阶段，能否有效地启动消费，扩展需求空间，成为推动新一轮经济增长的决定性因素，目前的消费不足和需求空间萎缩，既有供给结构方面的背景，也有需求结构方面的原因，要从实际出发，加大结构调整的力度，实现经济结构的升级和优化，为国民经济的发展创造需求空间。     

‘Death effect’ on collectible prices

It has been widely observed that the price of art or celebrity memorabilia rises around the time of the artist or figure's death. Previous authors attribute this ‘?death effect?’ primarily to expectations on the part of collectors concerning the future supply of collectibles relating to the public figure as in the case of a durable goods monopolist. The observations of the sports memorabilia market suggest that the increase in prices is instead due to a ‘?nostalgia effect?’ as a result of the media attention that surrounds the death of a prominent public figure.     

我国消费需求变动与经济增长的实证分析

消费需求对于我国经济增长具有决定性影响，既是拉动经济增长的最大动力，又是防止经济萧条的稳定力量。近几年来政府通过扩大投资启动经济的政策效果不尽如人意的主要原因在于居民消费倾向明显下降。启动新一轮景气周期的政策重心应是提高居民消费倾向，激活消费需求。     

What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach based on aggregate models of the macroeconomy. In this article, the authors discuss the advantages and shortcomings of each approach in the context of course objectives. Because there is significant heterogeneity in textbook coverage, the authors summarize some of the approaches taken in current intermediate-level textbooks, which should serve as a useful starting point for new instructors. The authors also discuss how each approach can be extended to analyze the recent recession in the United States.     

Prospects for food demand and supply in Central Asia

Central Asia has experienced massive economic and social shocks during the past decade following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union. Demand for cereals, particularly for staple cereals and meats, has fallen significantly even as production and productivity have plummeted. Although agricultural reforms were launched in 1991, the performance of the agricultural sector has been weak across the region. Prospects for food security in Central Asia appear mixed. Projections indicate that a growing and urbanizing population in Central Asia with rising incomes will increase demand for cereals by 32% between 1995 and 2020 to reach 24 million tons, and for meat by 47% to reach 2.9 million tons. Improvements in crop productivity will be essential to meet the increases in demand projected for the region. Cereal production is forecast to keep pace with demand such that Central Asia will be virtually self-sufficient in cereals. However, national food self-sufficiency or food security does not necessarily translate into household or individual food security. Moreover, self-sufficiency comes with a high price-tag of opportunities foregone and inappropriate use made of resources. Given the growing enthusiasm for food self-sufficiency in Central Asia, it is imperative that research be undertaken to assess the full costs and benefits of such a policy.