对中国房地产区域分类的探索——基于聚类分析的实证研究

房地产市场的区域分类是进行房地产微观市场分析和宏观市场研究的基础.只有进行了合理有效的区域分类,才有可能对房地产市场行为有清晰的把握和认识.文章基于房地产市场发展规模的各项指标,运用聚类分析方法进行了全国房地产市场的整合分类,为合理划分全国市场提供了一个好的思路.     

中国古典曲论中的分类现象研究

中国古典戏曲理论里的分类现象从戏曲本体、戏曲创作、戏曲接受、戏曲表演、戏曲多维综合审美等角度，大致可以归纳为五大项二十小类。戏曲本质存在不同审美定位，使得分类现象之间错综复杂，互相交融。分类现象和戏曲发展息息相关，戏曲美学理论受到其他诸种艺术理论的影响的同时，积极构建体现自身本体特征的分类并积极反作用于其他艺术理论。自觉的成系统的分类批评出现在明中后叶．合乎戏曲理论发展的客观规律。     

Estimating intergenerational distribution preferences

Resource management decisions influence not only the output of the economy but also the distribution of utility between groups within the community. The theory of cost benefit analysis provides a means of incorporating distributional changes into the decision making calculus through the application of distributional or welfare weights. However, this practice has not been widely adopted in part due to difficulties in the estimation of distributional weights. This paper addresses this problem by using the stated preference method of choice modelling to estimate distributional weights suitable for inclusion in a cost benefit analysis framework. The findings of a choice modelling experiment designed to estimate community preferences with respect to intergenerational utility distribution illustrate the potential of this method in addressing distributional issues.     

NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: an empirical note

This paper provides tests of the co-movement of the North American stock markets. We find over the post-US stock market crash period, 1987:11 through 1997:03, there is no cointegration present in these markets even when the passage of NAFTA is taken into account. The absence of cointegration allows us to draw several conclusions. First, the stock markets of North America are segmented. Second, the passage of NAFTA has not resulted in a greater integration of these stock markets. Finally, the data do not support the notion of a contagion effect from the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. In conclusion, the potential for long-run international diversification across the markets of North America still exists.     

Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma

Using the “trilemma indexes” developed by Aizenman et al. (2010) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances, with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country holds international reserves (IR) at a level higher than a threshold (about 20% of GDP). Greater monetary autonomy is associated with a higher level of inflation while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness could lower the inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility through the investment or trade channel depending on the openness of the economies. Our results indicate that policy makers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability while holding a massive amount of IR. Asian emerging market economies are found to be equipped with macroeconomic policy configurations that help the economies to dampen the volatility of the real exchange rate. These economies’ sizeable amount of IR holding appears to enhance the stabilizing effect of the trilemma policy choices, and this may help explain the recent phenomenal buildup of IR in the region.     

“Keep silent and make money”: Institutional patterns of earnings management in China

Assessing the overall quality of Chinese financial data is important to both academic researchers and regulators. Using data from the industrial census of China, we examine the institutional pattern of the manipulation of reported profit statistics by manufacturing firms. This manipulation of profits is called “earnings management.” We find that earnings management is more pervasive in China than in mature market economies such as the U.S., and that Chinese firms appear to follow a “keep silent, make money” strategy by managing their reported earnings to zero. Specifically, we find that increased earnings management is associated with state-owned firms, firms reporting to higher levels of government, and firms in more marketized regions.     

The scheduling and organization of periodic associative computation: Efficient networks

This paper characterizes the efficient decentralized networks for calculating the associative aggregate of cohorts of data of a fixed size that arrive periodically. Radner (1993) proposed this problem of periodic parallel associative computation as a model of the ongoing information processing and communication by the administrative staff of a large organization. For a simpler model in which the organization processes a single cohort of data – which is equivalent to the periodic model when the agents are paid only when busy – he found that the efficient networks are hierarchical but quite irregular, even though the computation problem and technology are each symmetric. In the periodic model in which managers are paid even when idle, it becomes important to minimize idle time when scheduling managers to processing tasks. Such scheduling appears more difficult when each problem is processed by an irregular hierarchy, which suggest that hierarchies might be more regular in the periodic model. However, we show that in a class of efficient networks for periodic computation that spans the efficiency frontier, the processing of each cohort is similar to the efficient processing of a single cohort, and the overall organizational structure is not even hierarchical. Received: 15 October 1994 / Accepted: 6 March 1997     

Process innovation and the persistence of monopoly with labour-managed firms

The issue of the persistence of monopoly when at least one labour-managed firm takes part in an auction for a cost-reducing innovation is tackled in this paper. It is shown that (i) when the incumbent is a profit-maximizing firm while the entrant is a labour-managed firm, monopoly persists; (ii) when both firms are labour-managed, monopoly persists only if the technology initially employed by the incumbent is highly inefficient as compared to the new one; and, finally, (iii) when the incumbent is labour-managed while the outsider is a profit seeking agent, then entry always occurs and monopoly changes hands. Received: 3 July 1997 / Accepted: 16 February 1998     

数据挖掘中分类预测工具方法及应用研究

如何在大量的数据中获取有用信息，并且通过对数据进行有效的分析来进一步实现对未来情况的预测，是当今许多领域迫切需要的技术。本文通过对数据挖掘领域中经典的分类及预测软件See5／C5的解析，介绍了它的核心算法、实现机制以及应用特点。通过简单的应用例子展示出了分类及预测的实现过程，在信息处理的具体应用中可以结合应用的规模和特点选择相应的判定树处理功能，以求获得最佳的预测效果。     

On the folk theorem with one-dimensional payoffs and different discount factors

Proving the folk theorem in a game with three or more players usually requires imposing restrictions on the dimensionality of the stage-game payoffs. Fudenberg and Maskin (1986) assume full dimensionality of payoffs, while Abreu et al. (1994) assume the weaker NEU condition (“nonequivalent utilities”). In this note, we consider a class of n-player games where each player receives the same stage-game payoff, either zero or one. The stage-game payoffs therefore constitute a one-dimensional set, violating NEU. We show that if all players have different discount factors, then for discount factors sufficiently close to one, any strictly individually rational payoff profile can be obtained as the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium with public correlation.