Reallocation and restructuring: A generalization of the Balassa–Samuelson effect

Despite its strong theoretical position when it comes to explaining inflation in transition economies, the empirical findings of the Balassa–Samuelson (B–S) effect assign only a minor role to structural inflation – to the disappointment of analysts and policymakers. This article points to 3 theory-based contributing factors to these ‘weak’ findings and offers an alternative methodological approach. First, a short-term focus makes B–S prone to underestimating the magnitude of the productivity growth differential. Second, the conventional demand side CPI based definition of sectoral value added reduces the extent to which the productivity growth differential is passed through to inflation. Third, by ignoring the dependence between the 2 main B–S components, a further downward bias to the productivity growth pass through comes about. The key to our proposed alternative methodology centres on an endogenous relation between the productivity growth differential and sector sizes. Together with the long-run supply-side approach this allows us to capture inflation drivers that conventional B–S fails to incorporate. In our extension to the conventional B–S model a reduced productivity growth differential can be compensated by an increased productivity growth pass-through, or vice versa – with the effect of augmenting inflation pressure. Hence, the link between productivity growth differentials and the dynamics of structural inflation is shown to be more complex than previously assumed.     

TRIPs, trade and growth: When comparative advantages break down

In this paper we combine a model of Ricardian comparative advantages as in Dornbusch et al. (1977) with Grossman and Helpman's (1991) quality ladder model and derive the consequences of asymmetric IPRs protection for the pattern of trade and the world rate of growth through innovation. Our analysis differs from that already made by Taylor (1994) in that final goods and research technologies do not go exactly along together, so the impossibility of doing licensing under asymmetric protection will here bring forth an infringement of comparative advantages which we call “the invasion effect”.     

基于主分量模糊c-均值算法的区域土地利用分区方法探讨——以广东省大埔县为例

土地利用分区本质上是一个分类问题,应用模糊分类的思想探讨土地利用最优分区数目策略,可为区域土地利用最优区划提供决策辅助。然而,目前关于土地利用分区的研究多是应用传统硬分类的聚类方法,分类数目带有很强的主观性,忽视了最优分区数目的客观存在。本研究应用因子分析、c-均值和模糊c-均值算法,并在遵循有效最大隶属原则的基础上,提出了一种土地利用最优分区数目的定量计算方法,并以广东省大埔县土地利用分区为例进行了实证分析,结果表明该方法能够较好的解决小样本数据集的土地利用分区数目最优的难题,同时对海量样本数据集多分类的效果可以提供后评估支持。     

基于Bayes逐步判别分析的油气储量价值分级

油气储量是国家的战略资源,鉴于其经济性差异,要实现资产化管理,必须首先评价其价值的优劣等级。本文选取影响油气储量价值等级的7个因素,将Bayes逐步判别分析方法应用于油气储量价值等级评价与分类中,建立了油气储量价值综合评判的Bayes判别分析模型。首先,经逐步分析,剔除储层渗透率,模型筛选出采收率、储量丰度、原油粘度、储层埋深、储量规模、原油凝固点等6个指标作为有判别意义的判别因子;然后,以已知价值等级的油气储量数据作为训练样本。将油气储量价值划分为优、良、中、差4个等级,建立4个Bayes线性判别函数,并回判检验判别函数的优良性。最后,并对待判样品进行Bayes判别。研究表明,Bayes逐步判别分析模型误判率较低,回判正确率达到85％,是评价油气储量价值等级的有效方法。     

Trade agreements and international comovements: The case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

Business cycles correlation between Mexico and the US changed from being on a downward sloping path before 1992 to an upward sloping path after that. This paper suggests that the North American Free Trade Agreement could be the explanation. NAFTA generated not only an increase in the volume of trade but also a change in the elasticity of substitution between imports and exports. The paper tests this hypothesis using the neoclassical business cycles model. Although there are still some discrepancies between the theory and data in the degree of correlation, the direction of change in the model corresponds to the one in the data.     

隐喻的分类视角及其语篇建构功能

当代隐喻研究深受功能语言学和认知语言学理论的影响,日益关注隐喻的语篇建构功能。隐喻的语篇建构功能是全方位、系统化的,不同隐喻类型分担着各自的职能。从隐喻的分类视角关注隐喻的语篇建构功能,利于明确不同隐喻现象与语篇多维组建的关系。     

Policy choice: Theory and evidence from commitment via international trade agreements

Why do governments employ inefficient policies when more efficient ones are available for the same purpose? We address this puzzle in the context of redistribution toward special interest groups (SIGs) by focusing on a set of important policies: tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs). In our policy choice model a government can gain by committing to constrain tariffs through international agreements even if this leads to the use of less efficient NTBs; commitment has political value because it improves the bargaining position of a government that is weak relative to domestic SIGs. Using detailed data we find support for several of the model's predictions including: (i) tariff commitments in trade agreements increase the likelihood and restrictiveness of NTBs but not enough to offset the original tariff reductions; (ii) tariff commitments are more likely to be adopted and more stringent when the government is weaker relative to a SIG. Thus, the results can explain the use of inefficient policies for redistribution and suggest that the bargaining motive is an important source of the political value of commitment in international agreements.     

Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence

While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, this is seldom modelled explicitly. We add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). With an endogenous defence, actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements. Nevertheless, our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium. It provides additional insights. For instance, the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong.     

Who's afraid of a globalized world? Foreign Direct Investments, local knowledge and allocation of talents

We study the distributional effects of globalization within a model of heterogeneous agents where both managerial talent and knowledge of the local economic environment are required in order to become a successful entrepreneur. Agents willing to set up a firm abroad incur a learning cost that depends on how different the foreign and domestic entrepreneurial environments are. In this context, we show that globalization fosters FDI and raises wages, output and productivity. However, not everybody wins. The steady state relationship between globalization and income is U-shaped: high- and low-income agents are better off in a globalized world, while middle-income agents (domestic entrepreneurs) are worse off. Thus, consistently with recent empirical evidence, the model predicts globalization to increase inequality at the top of the income distribution while decreasing it at the bottom.     

中国企业生命周期阶段划分及其度量研究

运用财务综合指标法、现金流分类组合法和销售与资本支出曲线趋势变化法,对近年来中国A股上市公司的生命周期进行定量划分。采用第一种方法和第三种方法得出的结果,注重企业财务指标及发展演进时间序列的具体表现,采用的第二种方法则强调划分依据的真实性与所反映企业信息的准确性;通过比较近年来中国市场上基金产品选股与本文的划分结果,发现成长型或价值型的股票基金产品年度持股与三种方法下划分的结果比较吻合,从而验证了三种方法的合理性及可应用性。