基于Repast平台的城市交通系统仿真建模研究

提出了采用基于Agent的仿真建模方法为研究人员提供了城市交通系统研究新的思路，Repast平台则可以支持研究人员对复杂适应系统快速地建模。介绍了Repast仿真平台的结构、主要类库及建模步骤，并结合城市交通系统中提供交通信息服务的实例，简要阐述了使用Repast仿真平台对城市交通系统进行建模的过程。     

紧邻老旧民房的深孔松动控制爆破技术

为了保护融水至河池高速公路二分部项目K53桩号附近的老旧民房和村民祠堂,控制露天深孔台阶爆破开挖所产生的振动和飞石、滚石等有害效应对村庄的影响,通过采用露天深孔松动控制爆破的方法,利用数码电子雷管结合毫秒级延期起爆网络进行爆破参数的设计。严格控制单段最大起爆药量,预留靠近民房山体一侧做掩体,确定好延时时间间隔和抵抗线方向以及做好炮孔堵塞和炮孔覆盖等安全技术措施,从而减少爆破振动和飞石、滚石等有害效应。结果发现:爆破效果良好,无飞石和滚石发生,大块率较低,机械易于开挖。祠堂和民房地基采集到的振速数据远低于安全振动峰值。     

关于复数运算在高次方程中的运用

随着office2010版开发,复数函数的运算的完善为高次方程的完整解提供了技术上的有力保障。     

A toolbox for garden governance

A substantial fraction of the open space in (peri-) urban and rural areas is covered by domestic gardens which support the delivery of multiple ecosystem services. Although individually they may look insignificant, the aggregation of domestic gardens and of gardening actions can be significant. Referring to ‘the tyranny of small decisions’, we launch the concept of a ‘resource by small gardening actions’: the positive cumulative outcome of individual garden owners adopting pro-environmental gardening practices. Using qualitative research, we gained a thorough insight into the barriers and levers related to the development of domestic gardens as a ‘resource by small gardening actions’. By combining the data from expert interviews with a design workshop addressing garden and landscape architects, and focus groups with private garden owners, we identified eight barriers and nine levers. These levers are part of a ‘mix and match’ toolbox, allowing the development of tailor-made strategies for garden governance. These insights increase the understanding on if and how private actors and their properties could become part of policy plans to support ecosystem services. This adds to the global understanding of the strategic value of daily-life landscapes that exist all over the world.     

复杂地质条件下高面板堆石坝工程质量控制措施阐述

在复杂地质条件下,需要加强高面板堆石坝工程质量管控工作,严格地按照国家出台的质量安全责任规章,提高建设质量。论文主要围绕高面板堆石坝工程、工程质量控制措施两个方面进行探讨,确保混凝土面板堆石坝的施工质量。     

Small Area Estimation for Disease Prevalence Mapping

Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested, from a bewildering range of philosophical standpoints. We describe design-based and model-based approaches and models that are specified at the area level and at the unit level, focusing on health applications and fully Bayesian spatial models. The use of auxiliary information is a key ingredient for successful inference when response data are sparse, and we discuss a number of approaches that allow the inclusion of covariate data. SAE for HIV prevalence, using data collected from a Demographic Health Survey in Malawi in 2015–2016, is used to illustrate a number of techniques. The potential use of SAE techniques for outcomes related to coronavirus disease 2019 is discussed.     

Optimizing suicide and trespass prevention on railways: a problem-solving model from the RESTRAIL project

Suicides and trespassing accidents result in more than 3800 fatalities in Europe, representing 88% of all fatalities occurring within the EU railway system. This paper presents a problem-solving model, which consists of a multistep approach structuring the analysis of a suicide or trespass-related problem on the railways. First, we present the method used to design, evaluate and improve the problem-solving model. Then we describe the model in detail: it comprises six steps with several subsequent actions, and each action is approached through a checklist of prompting questions and possible answers. At the end, we discuss the added value of this model for decision makers and its usability in the selection of optimal prevention measures.     

复杂视域中的适应性效率与后危机时代的经济发展

全球金融危机凸显出经济的复杂性本质,人们终于认识到"适应性效率"而非"资源配置效率"才是长期经济增长的关键。基于复杂性思想,本文系统梳理了诺思适应性效率理论并弥补了其不足,并据此对后危机时代的经济发展提出了对策。     

基于复杂网络的再保险市场系统性风险研究

近年来我国保险业快速发展,部分规模较大、复杂度较高的保险机构因与其他保险机构关联度高而居于再保险网络的核心,决定了再保险市场的系统性风险传播机制,对我国金融体系整体稳健性以及服务实体经济的能力具有重要影响,为此,迫切需要对系统重要性保险机构和保险业系统性风险进行识别判断。本文将再保险市场统计意义上的结论运用到风险传染动力学模型的构建中,使校准后的模型更贴近实际,研究了再保险国际化比率、破产阈值、紧急折价抛售系数、保险赔付占保险损失比率等因素对再保险市场稳健性的影响。运用最大熵理论解决了再保险交易对手方的信息不完全问题,寻求再保险转移矩阵和我国保险业发生系统性风险时总赔付额的临界点,研究发现我国的再保险复杂网络中有可能存在再保险旋涡,部分资金规模庞大且偿付能力充足的保险公司广泛进行再保险业务,导致风险集聚,但发生再保险旋涡的概率极其低,再保险复杂网络整体上十分稳健。论文探索了再保险市场的风险传播机制,论证了"联系太紧密而不能倒"的保险机构相比于"太大而不能倒"的保险机构,一旦倒闭对再保险市场稳健性的影响更大,为识别系统重要性保险机构,及早发现并防范保险业系统性风险提供了新的方法和思路。     

万古霉素高产菌株选育及发酵配方优化

为了提高东方拟无枝酸菌产万古霉素的发酵单位,降低生产成本,采用紫外诱变、常压室温等离子体诱变对东方拟无枝酸菌出发菌株V19-02进行诱变处理,通过筛选链霉素抗性突变菌株,选育高产菌株;通过对发酵培养基中碳源和氮源进行筛选,选取葡萄糖、淀粉、低温豆粉、酵母粉4个因素进行均匀设计。结果表明,获得的高产菌株V19-1-07摇瓶发酵单位提高33.7%,且具有良好的传代稳定性;优化后的培养基配比质量分数为葡萄糖8.0%、淀粉1.0%、低温豆粉1.0%、酵母粉4.0%、氯化钠1.0%、磷酸二氢钾0.1%;小试结果证明,优化配方可使50 L罐发酵单位平均达到14 110 μg/mL,比原始配方提高了28.9%。因此,研究获得的高产菌株V19-1-07可应用于万古霉素工业化发酵生产,以帮助企业降低成本,进一步提高竞争力。