租赁资产的信用风险度量

对租赁资产重复采样,采用信用损失分布的蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行分析,结果表明:有形资产抵押可减少租赁资产组合的信用风险。在巴塞尔协议的IRB方法度量中,由于违约暴露的不同,从而得到的资本准备金要求也存在明显的区别。     

我国互联网信用体系建设的策略研究——基于中国人民银行征信平台的视角

随着互联网的蓬勃发展,网络购物、网上支付、虚拟货币、在线预订等网络商务活动方兴未艾。与此同时,网络诚信和安全也成为制约网民进行网上交易的关键。目前,我国互联网信用体系建设仍处于起步阶段,从职责、技术、资源节约等方面考虑,可尝试利用中国人民银行的征信系统,扩大互联网上支付信息的采集范围,建设互联网上的信用信息通用平台,构建我国网络信用体系。     

Deciphering big data in consumer credit evaluation

This paper examines the impact of large-scale alternative data on predicting consumer delinquency. Using a proprietary double-blinded test from a traditional lender, we find that the big data credit score predicts an individual’s likelihood of defaulting on a loan with 18.4% greater accuracy than the lender’s internal score. Moreover, the impact of the big data credit score is more significant when evaluating borrowers without public credit records. We also provide evidence that big data have the potential to correct financial misreporting.     

When Overlapping Organisations Play Two-Level Games: IMF–EU Interaction in Credit Lending to Latvia and Greece

In the literature, the cooperation of the IMF and the EU in credit lending has been discussed either from a state-centric, bureaucratic or institutionalist perspective. In this article, we examine the Troika as a set-up of multiple organisational overlap providing bureaucratic agents with constraints and opportunities for strategic action. Taking Latvia and Greece as cases in point, we analyse who prevails in a situation of conflict and why. How do these international organisations manage to overcome their differences and reach consensus? Drawing on the Two-Level game approach, we argue that negotiators are more likely to prevail over each other when their respective win-set decreases. We find that different strategies to manipulate win-sets are decisive to explain both cooperation and assertiveness. Changing costs of no agreement during a lending programme as well as the institutional procedures for programme ratification facilitate the use of these strategies.     

信息化条件下的高校党员教育学习创新性研究与实践

随着信息化时代的到来,对大学生党员的教育工作也提出了新的要求。我们认为走信息化之路,以网络为平台、以学分为机制创新高校党员教育模式是保持党的先进性的重要手段,是高校党建工作与时俱进的策略选择。     

Measuring the Cost‐Effectiveness of an R&D Tax Credit for the UK

This paper investigates the economic impact of the government's proposed new UK R&D tax credit. We measure the benefit of the credit by the effect on value added in the short and long runs. This is simulated from existing econometric estimates of the tax‐price elasticity of research and development (R&D) and the effect of R&D on productivity. For the latter, we allow R&D to have an effect on technology transfer (catching up with the technological frontier) as well as innovation (pushing the frontier forward). We then compare the increase in value added to the likely exchequer costs of the programme under a number of scenarios. In the long run, the increase in GDP far outweighs the costs of the tax credit. The short‐run effect is far smaller, with value added only exceeding cost if R&D grows at or below the rate of inflation.     

关于我国利率和利率传导关系的思考

当前我国银行体系利率大致可分为货币市场利率和信贷市场利率,其中由央行指定的利率主要有存贷款基准利率、再贴现率等。在货币市场上,隔夜同业拆借利率具有基准利率的地位。在信贷市场上,在特定时期,保持适当的存贷款利差具有积极意义。由于一些阻碍信贷市场与货币市场统一的制度安排的存在,这两个市场间的利率传导呈现出一定的不对称性。为推进利率市场化,进一步完善我国利率体系,下一步应逐步弥合市场分割,加强货币市场基准利率建设,培育商业银行利率定价能力。     

论重整企业信用修复的特征、机制与方式

重整企业信用修复日益受到重视,并且司法实践已经开启个案探索,亟待推进重整企业信用修复的制度建设.重整企业信用修复制度应当以企业拯救为目的,以准予修复为原则、不予修复为例外,以主动、高效为根本要求.重整企业信用修复应当构建以"府院协调"为基础,信用服务机构、银行等多元主体参与的机制,并且对信用修复方式进行革新,为重整企业...     

新《企业破产法》对银行信贷业务的影响及对策

相对于旧<企业破产法>而言,2007年6月1日施行的新<企业破产法>扩大了适用范围,明晰了破产条件,健全了破产法律责任追究制度,规定了跨境破产,调整了破产财产范围和债权的清偿顺序,新设了管理人、重整和撤销权等制度,新<企业破产法>的实施对银行信贷业务产生了重大影响.本文通过对新旧<企业破产法>进行比较,详细分析了新<企业破产法>的实施对银行信贷业务产生的影响,有针对性地提出了风险防范对策:正确选定融资对象,防范关联风险;严控贷款用途,关注借款及国家宏观调控政策的重大变化;全面掌握债务人财产状况;依法监督管理人行为等.     

基于关联交易的企业集团信用风险研究

基于合作博弈理论构建了企业集团关联交易基本模型,刻画了企业集团的公允关联交易以及两种广泛存在的、典型的非公允关联交易行为。利用一类Survival Copula函数刻画了不同类型关联交易下的企业集团信用风险,从理论上阐明了关联交易影响企业集团信用风险的基本机制。研究结果表明:通过关联交易"掏空"母公司的行为会使企业集团的信用风险显著增加;存在最优内部资源配置方式可使企业集团的信用风险水平最低。