Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

The potential for technology and knowledge transfers between foreign and local firms: A study of the construction industry in Ghana

Multinational corporations (MNCs) and other foreign firms can be conduits for technology and knowledge (T&K) transfer to host countries in the developing world. Most of the existing research focuses on T&K transfers through FDI and are drawn from Asia not Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), although SSA is increasingly receiving foreign investment. There is a paucity of research that gives insights into project-level T&K transfer issues in SSA countries. Using the Ghanaian construction industry as an empirical focus, this article explores T&K transfer potential. The findings reveal significant weaknesses in T&K transfer across industry subsectors and between foreign and local firms. This arises from the potentially complementary but dissimilar resource and knowledge bases. The weaknesses are compounded by the absence of coherent government T&K development policies.     

A saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of the sum of independent non‐identically uniform random variables

Calculating the probability of the corresponding significance point is important for finite sample sizes. However, it is difficult to evaluate this probability when the sample sizes are moderate to large. Under these circumstances, consideration of a more accurate approximation for the distribution function is extremely important. Herein, we performed a saddlepoint approximation in the upper tails for the distribution of the sum of independent non‐identically uniform random variables under finite sample sizes. Saddlepoint approximation results were compared with those for a normal approximation. Additionally, the order of errors of the saddlepoint approximation was derived. © 2014 The Authors. Statistica Neerlandica © 2014 VVS.     

Health insurance reform: The impact of a Medicare buy-in

The steady-state general equilibrium and welfare consequences of a Medicare buy-in program, optional for those aged 55–64, is evaluated in a calibrated life-cycle economy with incomplete markets. Incomplete markets and adverse selection create a potential welfare improving role for health insurance reform. We find that adverse selection eliminates any market for a Medicare buy-in if it is offered as an unsubsidized option to individual private health insurance. The subsidy needed to bring the number of uninsured to less than 5 percent of the target population could be financed by an increase in the labor income tax rate of just 0.03–0.18 percent depending on how the program is implemented.     

基于企业级的物流项目管理体系构建设计

针对物流项目的综合性和独特性特点，考虑采用项目管理方法构建多功能、多层次的综合管理体系。在调研现有项目管理体系的基础上，对企业级物流项目管理体系总体架构进行设计，并完成各子体系的构建。     

进口货物特许权使用费海关估价之完善路径分析

在经济全球化背景下,涉及知识产权的贸易越来越普遍,而现代国际贸易的特点之一,就是进口货物的商标权、专利权等无形的特许权伴随着有形货物的转移,因此,目前进口货物的特许权使用费成为中国海关估价难点之一.文章在综述我国现行特许权使用费海关估价规则的基础上,针对我国进口货物特许权使用费海关估价所面临的问题,着重就如何进一步完善进口货物特许权使用费海关估价,从海关估价技术、估价法规、估价制度、外部环境等四条路径进行了具体分析,并提出了相关建议.     

How to overcome the implementation gap in ecosystem services? A user-friendly and inclusive tool for improved urban management

One of the main issues with the concept of ecosystem services is its absence on the ground in concrete operational decision-making contexts; that is, an implementation gap. In this study, we investigated if this gap could be overcome through the use of open-source data and free tools, and the adoption of a short-term participatory process. We tested these methods in the context of a project in the urban metropolitan area of Bordeaux (Communauté urbaine de Bordeaux: CUB) in France. The ecosystem services were defined using a participatory approach involving local stakeholders, and then selected scenarios were simulated to test the impact of various development or conservation plans. The study addressed three main questions: (1) Is it possible to adopt a simple methodological approach that overcomes the implementation gap through the development of a user-friendly and inclusive method? (2) What is the added value of a participatory approach? (3) With regards to four scenarios in this territory, what are the ES trends in the selected biophysical and monetary indicators, and will knowledge of these trends help planners to shape a sustainable trajectory for the territory?     

Charting a Course on the Islamic Finance Ocean： A Survey of Islamic Insurance Literatures

The number of Muslim literates in Islamic finance and conventional finance, particularly Islamic insurance, has grown tremendously, so has the number of academic and professional articles, books, and other monographs published in Islamic insurance profession. Despite Islamic insurance uniqueness based on Islamic values and philosophies, its emancipation aimed to compete or eradicate the conventional insurance at both academic and professional levels. Those monographs that were intended to replace their conventional insurance counterpart have triggered endless debates among stakeholders on their authenticity and quality of knowledge and as well challenged their authors＇ authorities. Therefore, with content analysis, this survey verified whether the Islamic insurance literatures were capable of producing well-seasoned professionals of lslamic insurance. The results showed that the disputes over the available literatures might have contributed to the failure of having a standard curriculum for teaching Islamic insurance as a profession in academic at national and international levels. Review of the literatures and curriculum was recommended.     

International investors’ reactions to cross-border acquisitions by emerging market multinationals

How do international investors react to announcements of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CM&As) by emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs)? Using a unique and manually-constructed firm-level dataset, this paper examines the stock price reactions to CM&A announcements made over the period 1991–2010 by Chinese MNEs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the wealth impacts of their corporate governance. Our empirical findings confirm a positive stock price reaction on average, and suggest that international investors react positively to the presence of large shareholders, but negatively to the presence of institutional shareholders. There is a negative impact if the largest shareholder is either the State or the corporate founder. We suggest that this is because the international investors perceive potential principal–principal conflicts in such ownership/control constellations and discount equity prices accordingly. We also find that Board size and independence have positive effects on the price reaction, but that large supervisory boards engender negative reactions.     

论儿童阶段教师权威地位的重要性——对“师生平等”的反思

“平等”概念进入教育领域后，为我们解决了一些困扰已久的师生关系问题。但这种看似民主的师生平等观点，是否也夹杂着整个社会的权威退化值得探讨。在权威普遍丧失的今天，教育领域中万万不能丧失权威的概念，师生平等并不是师生关系最高标准，它甚至有弱化教师权威的倾向。如何建立起师生关系的最佳模式，如何帮助教师重塑在学生心目中应有的权威地位，阿伦特的权威观念也许可以作为一个指引。