基于SWOT分析的黑龙江省乳业发展策略

通过SWOT模型分析黑龙江省乳业发展的优势、劣势、机遇与威胁,结果表明:黑龙江省乳业在奶源、成本价格、产业基础方面具有优势,乳品消费需求的增长、宏观政策的扶持为黑龙江省乳业的发展提供了机遇,但是由于饲养方式落后、产品同质化严重等问题,黑龙江省乳业尚未显示出强大的竞争力。黑龙江省乳业应根据实际情况,进军细分市场,塑造品牌形象,大力推进标准化、规模化养殖,建立生态牧场示范园区,加强人才培养,促进黑龙江省乳业健康发展。     

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.     

基于人工免疫的乳品供应链质量安全风险预警研究

针对日益凸显的乳品质量安全问题,建立及时有效的乳品预警机制已经变得至关重要。文中从供应链的角度构建乳品质量安全风险指标体系。结合人工免疫及负选择算法并加以改进,建立基于人工免疫的乳品质量安全风险模型,并对某乳品企业的乳品质量安全风险进行了预警分析。研究结果表明文中建立的乳品质量安全风险预警模型能够定量分析乳品质量安全状态并有效预警,为实施乳品安全供应链监管提供了新思路和方法。     

信任缺失、逆向选择与信任重建--基于乳业危机的研究

文章以中国近年来的乳业危机为背景,利用上市公司数据,从会计盈余价值相关性和股价事件性反应的角度,研究了信任缺失下的逆向选择问题以及政府和行业信任重建的效果。研究发现：（1）乳业危机中,由于公众对乳制品企业的信任缺失,这些企业取得的经营业绩无法得到与其他企业同等的评价,表现为乳制品上市公司会计盈余的价值相关性低于其他食品行业公司,从而可能诱发逆向选择问题,损害乳品产业的发展。（2）政府的制度建设和行业协会的产品推广能够起到信任重建的作用。经过强有力的制度建设,乳制品企业的逆向选择现象逐渐消失,行业协会组织的产品发布会则引起了相关企业股票正向的市场反应。文章的研究有助于企业、政府和公众了解信任缺失的影响和信任重建的效果,而且从会计角度解答经济问题的交叉研究思路和方法也具有较好的创新性。     

陕西农户奶牛保险支付意愿的实证分析

陕西省于2007年7月在泾阳县实施了奶牛政策性农业保险的试点。本文按照条件价值评估方法,于2007年11月在泾阳县以支付卡式问卷调查对127户奶牛养殖户进行了实地调查,以调查数据为依据,测算了当地养殖户奶牛保险费用支付意愿,并运用Logistic回归模型分析了影响农户奶牛保险支付意愿的主要因素。结论认为,泾阳县奶牛保险试点中对畜龄2～8周岁奶牛实际征收保费标准低于养殖户平均支付意愿,是否接受保费、是否了解补贴、养殖户个体特征即受教育年限、养殖经验、年龄等是影响其保险支付意愿的主要因素。     

黑龙江省乳业发展对策研究

随着黑龙江省乳业在国民经济中的比重加大 ,乳业将成为区域经济新的增长点和农民增收的新途径。但是 ,黑龙江省乳业生产规模小 ,高级专业人才的缺乏 ,产品创新后劲的不足 ,融资渠道不畅等问题 ,已成为黑龙江省乳业发展壮大的瓶颈。应确定相应的规模发展、人才资源发展等研发战略 ,形成具有特色的乳产业基地 ,成为带动龙江经济发展的核心产业     

食品质量安全供应链规制研究:以乳品为例

在现有的质量规制政策下,食品质量安全事故频繁发生的原因是强制性公共规制难以有效地介入食品供应链的质量生产过程。对供应链生产过程的公共规制失灵,为被规制者以质量手段谋求利益最大化留下了充分的对策性空间。由供应链核心厂商实施的私人质量规制,以其信息成本优势、对策性行为少和规制的可持续性,能够有效地弥补公共规制对供应链的质量规制空白。     

基于行业生命周期的中国居民乳品消费研究

对乳品消费量而言,中国城镇居民乳品消费趋于饱和,但与发达国家相比存在着较大差距。农村居民的乳品消费刚刚起步,市场潜力巨大。就乳品消费品种而言,中国乳品行业正处于由液态奶向发酵奶过渡的发展阶段,干酪制品将成为中国未来乳品消费的主要品种。因此,进一步扩大中国居民乳品消费,应加强宣传引导,扩大农村市场,调整产品结构,开发新产品等。     

Multinationals vs. Cooperatives: The Income and Efficiency Effects of Supply Chain Governance in India

The impact of multinational firms on the domestic agricultural sector in developing countries is controversial, in particular in India. Relying on a unique set of household‐level data from the state of Punjab, we study the biggest dairy company in the world (Nestlé) in India and compare its vertical spillover effects on upstream suppliers to other market channels (informal sector and cooperatives). We find that farmers that supply informal channels are less efficient and earn lower profits per dairy animal than farmers supplying the cooperative and the multinational sector. Furthermore, we find that farmers using the multinational channel are more efficient than farmers in the cooperative channel, but equally profitable. Hence, we do not find that supplying the cooperative channel is more beneficial for local dairy farmers than supplying the multinational channel. Overall, however, dairy productivity and profitability levels are still dramatically low, with substantial scope for dairy development.