Evaluating FOMC forecasts

Monetary policy outcomes have improved since the early 1980s. One factor contributing to the improvement is that Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC forecasts relative to private sector forecasts, the forecasts of the Research Staff at the Board of Governors, and a naïve alternative. We find that the FOMC output forecasts were better than the naïve model and at least as good as those of the private sector and the Fed staff. The FOMC inflation forecasts were more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the naïve model; for the period ending in 1996, however, they were not as accurate as Fed staff inflation forecasts.     

A comparative site evaluation study for relocating Japanese government agencies out of Tokyo

As a national project of Japan, plans for the relocation of several government agencies out of Tokyo have been ongoing. This paper is concerned with the problem of site selection for this project. The National Land Agency, the agency responsible for this project, has declared that the process of site selection should be rational, open to the public and easily understandable. In an effort to meet these requirements, we propose a consensus-making method for reaching a group decision, based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Assurance Region model of data envelopment analysis (DEA). Several strategic uses of these methodologies, e.g., Delphi procedures, are also discussed. Based on these analyses, the “Wise Men” Committee for deciding the best site has chosen two from among ten contenders, one from the North-East and the other from the Central part of Japan, as candidates for the best relocation site. We could not discriminate between the two with respect to the multiple criteria chosen for evaluating sites. The Committee recommended the two sites to the Prime Minister at the end of December 1999. The Prime Minister reported this conclusion to the Diet. This topic is currently the focus of political discussions in the Diet. In this report, the authors summarize the decision-making processes that the Wise Men Committee followed, putting emphasis on the methodological aspects.     

Application of multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model in risk assessment of gas exploration

This article classified gas exploration risk on the basis of the characteristics of oil-gas exploration investment projects, which are internal systems risk and external non-systemic risk. It described each classification specifically and introduced the basic principles and mathematical model of the multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment in detail, and then researched the conducts the risk of the gas exploration with examples.     

基于AHP＋熵组合的相对发达地区新乡镇建设评价——以苏南三镇为例

面对新农村建设活跃和城市化进程加速，新乡镇建设也初见端倪，选取苏南三镇作为实证地点，构建相对发达地区新乡镇建设评价体系，利用主观赋权的层次分析法（AHP）和客观赋权的熵权法进行组合评价。     

基于知识约简的企业员工知识培训决策研究

文章首先阐述企业员工知识培训的重要性,指出企业对员工进行知识培训管理方面的不足,认为要有效地进行知识培训,必须首先了解员工的知识缺失,进行科学的知识需求分析.文章在介绍知识约简的相关概念基础上.提出了基于知识约简的企业员工知识培训决策的方法步骤,并结合算例进行了具体分析.     

基于模糊综合评价的职业经理人力资本价值评估模型

文章在分析我国职业经理人力资本价值评估研究现状的基础上,以职业经理激励约束为导向,建立了职业经理综合素质测评体系,构建了职业经理人力资本价值评估模型,最后结合实例验证了模型的有效性。     

我国港口物流发展的实证分析

本文构造了港口物流发展的系统模型和综合评价指标体系,应用该指标体系,对我国上海、广州、天津、深圳等八个港口的物流发展水平进行了实证分析,给出针对性的对策建议。     

试论评估对加快我院改革与建设的作用

开展高职高专院校人才培养工作水平评估,给我院带来了新的发展契机,对加快改革与建设起到了积极地推动作用。通过两年来迎评促建工作的开展,学院的办学指导思想更加明确,全院教职工增强了凝聚力,办学条件得到了改善,师资队伍建设得到了加强,教学改革进一步深化,专业建设迈上了新台阶,学生素质教育结出了累累硕果,学院的办学实力和整体竞争力得到了提高。     

重构企业R＆D项目战略投资决策方法体系

传统的投资决策方法是一种建立在广泛应用的以货币的时间价值为基础的投资决策方法,它已越来越不能适应当今充满不确定性和竞争性的市场需要.实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法（DCF）更适合来分析不确定条件下的投资决策问题,但仅凭实物期权方法还不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业R＆D项目战略投资问题进行准确分析和估价,而引入期权博弈理论恰好能克服这些缺陷.文章从理论上阐述了重构企业R＆D项目投资决策方法体系的可能性和必要性,并由此提出了研究的基本框架.     

Disciplining: A question of ethics?

The importance of evaluating a discipline system from an ethical perspective is considered. Disciplinary practices in contemporary organizations are frequently characterized by managers having to choose from among alternative courses of corrective action. Since the selected alternative may have serious consequences for the individuals involved, its rightness or wrongness is of concern. The pattern of these choices reflects the overall disciplinary practice of the organization, and is an issue that warrants attention from an ethical perspective. Basic schools of thought that influence contemporary discipline practices are discussed and suggestions are made for conducting an evaluation of the ethical nature of a discipline system.