ARBITRAGE‐FREE BILATERAL COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION UNDER COLLATERALIZATION AND APPLICATION TO CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term depends on the netted exposure, i.e., the difference between the on‐default exposure and the predefault collateral account. We then specialize our analysis to credit default swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolios, and construct a numerical scheme to evaluate the adjustment under a doubly stochastic default framework. In particular, we show that for CDS contracts a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved, even under continuous collateralization, if the reference entity’s and counterparty’s default times are dependent. The impact of rehypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and default correlation‐induced contagion is illustrated with numerical examples.     

从次贷危机看消费信贷违约防范机制的失灵

本文以美国次贷危机为例,分析了消费信贷市场违约防范机制失灵的问题。本文指出,政府隐含担保的存在是导致消费信贷市场违约防范机制失灵的真正原因,可能使消费信贷市场出现大范围的违约并威胁整个金融体系的稳定。美国次级抵押贷款市场上爆发的危机不是偶然的,恰恰是消费信贷市场上违约风险防范机制失灵的一个集中反应。     

Industrial Risk Management： Modeling From the Explosion of the 19/01/04 Complex of Liquefied Natural Gas,Skikda （GL 1 / K）

After several incidents or accidents, the most serious case being the one who struck the complex Skikda liquefied natural gas （GLI / K） on January 19, 2004, the group Sonatrach sensitive to the incident has taken further steps along the lines of prevention safe knowing that the business risk is an integral part of the business industry and it is about health, safety, and environmental protection. These factors will be taken into account in the process of management and decision making at all levels. This study tries to find the causal factors of the explosion of 19 January 2004 （GLI / K） and to develop a fault tree and assess the risks arising from these factors,     

聚合信用风险模型在我国商业银行应用的方法论探讨

根据《巴塞尔新资本协议》的要求并结合我国的现实情况,本文对聚合信用风险模型在商业银行的应用进行了系统的研究,旨在提供一种计量贷款组合非预期损失的有效方法。本文指出了国外聚合信用风险模型频带划分方法的缺陷,对频带的划分做了创新性的设计,提出了具有可操作性的确定违约概率和违约损失率等参数的方法。同时采用某国有控股商业银行一地级市分行公司贷款数据对文中提出的计量非预期损失方法的科学性进行了论证,指出这一方法应用于我国商业银行可提高经济资本管理的效率。     

个人抵押贷款违约的相关性因素——基于Copula模型的研究

运用国内商业银行积累的大量数据,统计得到银行个人客户住房抵押贷款多年度、不同信用等级、不同身份特征、分行业和分地区的违约情况,进行非线性的拟合分析,并采用Copula函数度量个人客户违约之间的相关性及厚尾特征。研究表明,房屋价格、客户性别以及受教育程度等与违约概率相关性比较低,在考察的样本区间内,这些因素不显著导致违约发生。另外,信用等级、收入结构和抵押担保剩余额度是影响个人违约决策的重要变量。所采用的模型在个人住房抵押贷款定价与风险管理中获得较好效果,银行可以根据违约状况的变动制定动态利率,随时准备弥补损失。     

股票抵押贷款预期回收率比较分析

股票抵押贷款是一种风险较大的产品.股票价值和收益的高波动性造成抵押品价值的回收率不稳定,进而影响贷款预期回收率,使得银行经营风险加大.为了有效估算股票抵押贷款回收率,本文运用预期回收率模型,借助中国色诺芬股票数据库和美国CRSP股票数据库信息,比较分析不同市场情况下预期回收率的区别.分析发现中国市场由于近几年股票波动率加强,整体预期回收率较低,而美国则相反;预期回收率与抵押率、违约概率都成负相关关系,而且预期回收率对于抵押率的变化非常敏感;60%贷款抵押率的设定在美国市场是可行的,而中国市场合理抵押率是54%左右.     

CEO Bonus Compensation and Bank Default Risk: Evidence from the U.S. and Europe

We investigate the link between the incentive mechanisms embedded in CEO cash bonuses and the riskiness of banks. For a sample of U.S. and European banks, we employ the Merton distance to default model to show that increases in CEO cash bonuses lower the default risk of a bank. However, we find no evidence of cash bonuses exerting a risk‐reducing effect when banks are financially distressed or when banks operate under weak bank regulatory regimes. Our results link bonus compensation in banking to financial stability and caution that attempts to regulate bonus pay need to tailor CEO incentives to the riskiness of banks and to regulatory regimes.