MULTIDIMENSIONAL DISTANCE‐TO‐COLLAPSE POINT AND SOVEREIGN DEFAULT PREDICTION

By focusing on sovereign defaults, this paper introduces a multidimensional distance‐to‐collapse point based on a two‐step procedure. The first step is nonparametric and provides an early warning system that signals a potential crisis whenever preselected leading indicators exceed specific thresholds. The second is parametric and incorporates the first‐step country default predictors within a probit specification. Such a two‐step procedure generalizes the distance‐to‐default à la Merton within a multidimensional setting, wherein we care about the distance of each indicator from its threshold. Empirical evidence about debt crises of emerging markets over the period 1975–2002 proves that our methodology predicts 80% of the total defaults and non‐defaults in and out of sample. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Termination of distressed residential mortgages: An empirical analysis

A sample of 209 distressed mortgages is used to analyze the terminations of distressed mortgages. An option-based model is compared to a traditional default model. Results show that the traditional model is statistically superior. However, the model's ability to identify a default is similar to that of the simpler option-based model. Alternative measures of borrower's equity are compared. Measuring borrower's equity using total debt more accurately explains default than using either the mortgage balance or the mortgage value.     

Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: The effects of simultaneity and self-selection

The common practices of estimating single-equation models of mortgage rejection to test for discrimination in mortgage markets or single-equation ex ante mortgage default equations to validate underwriting criteria produce biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This is due to problems of simultaneous equations bias which arise because, in a world of imperfect information, mortgage terms are not exogenous to the rejection or default decision. In addition, mortgage default estimates are also subject to selection bias. Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the nature and extent of likely bias in single-equation estimation results. We find that rejection equation estimates indicate discrimination when none exists and that estimated coefficients of mortgage terms, such as the loan-to-value ratio, are also subject to significant bias in both rejection and default equations.     

Housing-Price Cycles and Prepayment Rates of U.S. Mortgage Pools

Empirical mortgage prepayment models generally have trouble explaining differences in mortgage-prepayment speeds among pools with similar interest rates on the underlying mortgages. In this article, we model some of the sources of termination heterogeneity across mortgage pools, particularly the role of regional variations in housing prices in generating atypical prepayment speeds. Using a sample of Freddie Mac mortgage pools from 1991 to 1998, we compare two classes of empirical models: a rational option-pricing model using a backward-solving pricing algorithm and an empirical hazard model. In both empirical estimation strategies, we find evidence that differences in house-price dynamics across regions are an important source of between-pool heterogeneity. This finding is then shown to be robust to alternative ways of parameterizing pool heterogeneity in mortgage termination models.     

Perceptions of postretirement benefit obligations by bond rating analysts

This research examines the measurement and impounding of alternative measures of a corporation's other postretirement benefits obligation (OPEBs) by an important segment of the capital markets. The Kaplan and Urwitz (1979) model is used as a benchmark from which to assess the importance of an added OPEB variable in the bond rating process. Using the corporate bond rating as the dependent variable, multiple measures of the OPEB obligation are inserted individually as an added independent variable into an N-chotomous probit model. The results for 1987 and 1988 indicate that measures calculated from publicly available information produce highly significant results. The developed postretirement liability measures are found to provide relevant and material information regarding the risk level of a firm's bonds as represented by its bond rating. This insight concerning the additional risk represented by a firm's postretirement benefits is beyond that supplied by the firm's pension information. This suggests that the additional investor default risk attributed to a firm's OPEB can be reasonably proxied by data found in the company's annual report footnote disclosures.     

试论买卖合同信用证条款中双方的法律关系

本文认为：买方申请银行开立信用证是卖方履行交货义务的前提条件;当卖方未能按期申请开立信用证时,如构成重大违约,卖方可解除合同,如属轻微违约,卖方应首先规定宽限期让其履行开证义务,如买方仍不开证．卖方才有权解除合同;关于买方开证与其货款责任的关系,应坚持“有条件付款说”,在信用证有效期内买方的贷款责任暂时中止,如卖方未能利用信用证以取得货款,则应区别卖方对此是否有过错,适用不同的法律 规则。     

论商业银行对营业场所客户的安全保障义务

商业银行经营者在营业场所内对客户的人身财产权益负有合理限度内的安全保障义务.该义务属于法定义务范畴,主要包括硬件和软件两大方面.商业银行履行安全保障义务应限定在"合理限度"之内,空间上只限于商业银行的"营业场所",时间上应限定在"全部营业时间"内,保护对象应该界定在与商业银行有较密切关系的"客户、潜在客户、其他进入营业场所的相关自然人"范围内.基于平衡社会利益的需要,商业银行违反安全保障义务应承担过错侵权责任,包括直接责任和补充责任两种形态.在第三人直接侵权、商业银行承担补充责任的情形中,应适用过错推定规则.     

中国银行业经济资本管理的实施路径——从巴塞尔新资本协议获得的启示

经济资本是加强商业银行内部资本管理和风险管理的重要手段.借助经济资本和其他基于风险的管理工具,金融机构可以对其面临的风险进行量化,计算应对这些风险所需的资本及得出根据实际风险进行调整后的收益.对大多数国内银行而言,经济资本的应用已经落后于其他先进国家,本文试图从新资本协议IRB方法的基本思路入手,提出国内银行业在现有条件下提升经济资本计量水平的解决方案.并提出在目前条件下,为实现有效资本管理的最终目标,要尽快开发关键风险参数的量化模型,加强资本管理IT系统建设以及建立资本计划的制定和实施程序.     

Pricing the risks of default

This paper decomposes default risk into timing and recovery risks. The two default components are explicitly priced as if they were traded in the futures market. We develop estimation strategies evaluating recovery risks and then construct implicit prices of contingent securities reflecting purely the timing risk. The models are estimated on monthly data for rates on certificates of deposit offered by institutions in the Savings and Loan Industry, during the 1987–1991 period. Empirical results support market expectations of lower likelihoods of default after 1989.