Sustainability winners and losers in business-biased cocoa sustainability programmes in West Africa

In cocoa farming forestland is a production factor. Cocoa planting is easiest and production costs are lowest in tropical forest. Historically, therefore, once forestland has been exhausted in a given geographical area planters tend to diversify into other production systems to avoid the poverty (induced by increasing factor cost) of post-forest cultivation. In modern times however cocoa planters exist in a value chain and post-forest diversification could threaten multinational companies relying on rural planters for their raw material. In 2014 ten of the world’s largest chocolate multinationals combined, with more than $500 million in funding, to introduce a cocoa sustainability scheme called CocoaAction. In principle, CocoaAction and similar sustainability schemes sponsored by western multinational chocolate companies are interventions to empower cocoa planters and planting communities in West African countries. But in practice, as this article will show, these schemes are a response to diminishing returns in cocoa-producing communities and the prospect of diversification, and the resulting projection of a shortage in raw material. There are signs that diversification away from cocoa will be beneficial to cocoa planters and their communities. Cocoa sustainability schemes are therefore designed for the benefit of multinational chocolate companies and at the expense of diversification in West African countries.     

PORTFOLIO CHOICE VIA QUANTILES

A portfolio choice model in continuous time is formulated for both complete and incomplete markets, where the quantile function of the terminal cash flow, instead of the cash flow itself, is taken as the decision variable. This formulation covers a wide body of existing and new models with law‐invariant preference measures, including expected utility maximization, mean–variance, goal reaching, Yaari's dual model, Lopes' SP/A model, behavioral model under prospect theory, as well as those explicitly involving VaR and CVaR in objectives and/or constraints. A solution scheme to this quantile model is proposed, and then demonstrated by solving analytically the goal‐reaching model and Yaari's dual model. A general property derived for the quantile model is that the optimal terminal payment is anticomonotonic with the pricing kernel (or with the minimal pricing kernel in the case of an incomplete market if the investment opportunity set is deterministic). As a consequence, the mutual fund theorem still holds in a market where rational and irrational agents co‐exist.     

基于供销合作社现状的损益分配研究

近几年来由于内外原因,我国供销合作社的发展遭受较大挫折,表现在购销业务下降,农村市场占有率逐年递减,经济效益严重下滑。本文从我国供销社的损益分配现状入手,在回顾相关理论及文献的基础上,通过我国与美国供销社损益分配的比较研究,分析了我国供销合作社损益分配存在的问题及其成因,最后结合我国供销合作社损益分配的现状,提出一些相关对策。     

What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

上市连锁零售企业资本结构影响因素实证分析

利用多元回归分析方法研究了我国上市连锁零售公司资本结构的影响因素。研究表明:上市连锁零售公司规模与资本结构正相关;盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力与资本结构负相关;而企业成长性和国有股所占比重与资本结构无关。     

农户联保贷款的制度优势与缺陷探析

农户联保贷款具有自动瞄准、互相监督、还款共生和培训互助等独特的制度优势。但是,农户联保贷款在我国还存在着排除最贫困农户、小组组建困难、道德风险大和贷款过程繁杂等缺陷。我国应在贷款对象、信用环境、联保小组数量等方面加以完善与改进。     

河南省地区经济差距的历史分析

改革开放近30年来,河南省各地区居民的收入水平普遍得到较大幅度的提高,但各地区之间的经济发展差距却在逐步拉大。一方面,郑州、焦作等依托省会城市或者资源优势经济得到较快发展;另一方面,信阳、驻马店等革命老区或者传统平原农业区经济增速缓慢。日益扩大的地区经济差距显然会影响资源配置效率及长期经济增长的质量,对整个河南经济发展的的可持续性带来不利影响,甚至会影响社会的安定团结。因此对河南省地区差距的度量研究显得尤为必要,但这方面的实证研究往往停留在简单的数据列举上,缺乏全面性和深入的定量分析。笔者试图以近几年河南省统计局发布的年鉴数据为基础,对河南省的地区差距作出较为全面的测度。     

关于创建良好的制度外部环境、增强制度有效性的思考

本文提出了通过创造良好的制度外部环境来提高制度有效性的思路。制度的外部环境包括制度的制度环境以及制度的文化环境两部分。本文分别从这两个方面阐述了制度外部环境与制度有效性的关系,并提出改善外部环境的建议。     

城乡统筹进程中城乡收入差距影响农民健康的路径研究

城乡收入差距的扩大已成为制约城乡统筹发展的主要因素之一。收入分配对健康和健康不平等的影响正日益受到关注,文章从城乡居民收入差距继续扩大带来的问题入手,分析了城乡收入差距影响农民健康的三个路径:通过影响医疗公共支出和公共品的供给影响农民的健康;通过社会资本的恶化影响农民健康;以及通过心理感受对农民健康状况产生影响。     

我国农村养老保险基金筹集模式探讨

近几年,随着政府对农村养老保险的重视和政策调整,许多地方突破原有的模式框架,积极探索有地方特色的新型农村养老保险基金筹集模式。文章回顾总结了我国农村养老保险基金的筹集模式状况,指出加大农村养老保险基金筹集的现实必要性,提出建立农村养老保险基金筹集模式应遵守的原则,探讨了主要由公共财政支持下的模式选择问题。