‘RE‐OPENING THE BLACK BOX’: THE STORY OF IMPLEMENTING A RISK ANALYSIS METHOD IN A FRENCH LOCAL GOVERNMENT

This research is a study of the implementation of a risk analysis method (RAM) in a French local government. Based on the sociology of translation framework, this study shows that the success of the implementation of this management device is due to the transformation of its initial characteristics. Indeed, the RAM was initially designed to analyze the risks of outsourcing public services and thereby to aid elected officials with decision making. But in the hands of the actors in charge of its implementation, it progressively became a means for the members of the administrative services to inform elected officials about the consequences of their choices. This paper thus describes the ‘trajectory’ of this management device in a local government and, in doing so, emphasizes how it progressively became what it is (and what it is not) at present in this local government.     

基于TMMS的骑马订书机关键技术成熟度研究

产品技术成熟度预测是把产品作为一个技术系统进行研究，通过对当前产品技术的评价，预测当前产品所处技术生命周期，可以帮助生产者有的放矢地提高自己的技术水平，寻找创新点。本文应用基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测软件TMMS对骑马订书机及其关键技术的成熟度进行预测，并对预测结果进行分析，为企业制定战略决策、进行技术贸易提供了重要的参考指标。     

皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区醮SWOT辩证分析

皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区是安徽省第一个国家战略，意义重大。通过SWOT分析可知，皖江城市示范区承接产业转移优势与劣势并存，机遇和挑战共在。从整体来看优势和机遇大于劣势和挑战，但必须要清楚认识到，优势与劣势、机遇与挑战可以相互转化。优势与机遇是潜在的，需要我们积极利用和抓住它，真正促进示范区建设。对于劣势与挑战，我们要学会变换角度思考，劣势中蕴含优势，挑战中存在机遇。     

中国经济转型中的资本市场机遇——基于“四维理论”的分析

考察美国、日本等国历史经验,结合对中国资本市场的研究和实践,本文提出用四维理论——即宏观大背景决定方向,产业小背景精确定位股票,技术分析决定交易时机,心理博弈决定投资成败为纬度的四维理论来分析资本市场。从宏观、产业、技术及心理角度综合分析,当前资本市场估值处于合理区域,未来存在较大潜力。     

浅谈中日古典园林艺术

采用对比分析的方法,阐述中日古典园林形成差异的原因,对两国园林类型分类叙述,最后通过造园五大要素展开比较,进一步了解中日古典园林艺术的异同及各自的优秀品质。     

Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

皖港贸易对皖服务业影响的实证研究

建立了VAR模型试图分析这皖港之间的进出口贸易对安徽服务业发展的影响类型及影响程度,联合检验的结果是皖港进出口贸易是皖服务业发展的原因,单独检验的结果认为安徽从香港的出口贸易是安徽服务业的发展的一个内在原因;脉冲分析认为,安徽对香港的出口贸易对安徽服务业的发展有着显著的、积极而持久的影响,而安徽从香港的进口贸易对安徽服务业的影响相对不够显著;方差分解的结果与脉冲图像分解的结论一致。最后提出一些政策建议和措施。     

Job analysis: a strategic human resource management practice

This study examined the impact of job analysis on organizational performance among 148 companies based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a Gulf-region country. Survey results indicated that a practice of proactive job analysis was strongly related to organizational performance. This relationship was strongest to the extent that companies maintained HR information systems, accorded HR greater involvement in strategic planning and emphasized competency-based characteristics of employees in the job analysis approaches they used. The findings suggest that a company-wide policy of job analysis is an important source of competitive advantage in its own right, and merits due attention of HR professionals, line managers and top management. The study extends the findings of the HR–performance research pursued in Western countries to a non-Western context.     

产业链整合对建筑工业化协同创新绩效的影响研究

市场竞争日趋激烈，创新过程日益复杂，协同创新成为主流的创新范式。而我国建筑工业化正处于创新驱动发展不足的初级阶段，如何通过产业链整合实现建筑工业化的协同创新，进而提高创新绩效是值得研究的问题。本文从产业链整合着手，探讨建筑工业化的技术链整合、产品链整合、创新协同性、创新绩效之间的相互影响关系。首先根据理论分析提出假设，然后运用26家代表性企业的278份问卷作为样本数据进行验证。实证分析表明：产业链整合对创新协同性、创新绩效均有正向显著作用；技术链整合在产品链与创新协同性之间、创新协同性在产业链整合与创新绩效之间起完全中介作用；政策在产品链整合与创新协同性之间起正向调节作用，而在技术链整合与创新协同性之间的调节作用却不显著。研究结论对于建筑工业化政策制定、产业链完善、企业管理等方面具有重要意义，同时展望了需要进一步关注的方向。     

Research on e-commerce transaction networks using multi-agent modelling and open application programming interface

We provide a formal definition of an e-commerce transaction network. Agent-based modelling is used to simulate e-commerce transaction networks. For real-world analysis, we studied the open application programming interfaces (APIs) from eBay and Taobao e-commerce websites and captured real transaction data. Pajek is used to visualise the agent relationships in the transaction network. We derived one-mode networks from the transaction network and analysed them using degree and betweenness centrality. Integrating multi-agent modelling, open APIs and social network analysis, we propose a new way to study large-scale e-commerce systems.