税收政策与居民消费需求——基于结构效应视角的新思考

本文运用税收经济效应原理系统阐释所得税、商品税与财产税对居民消费需求的作用机制,在考察我国税制结构整体状况及其对居民消费需求负面影响的基础上,通过建立动态面板数据模型与采用GMM估计方法实证估计税收政策对居民消费需求的结构效应,结果发现：一方面,财产税挤入居民消费;另一方面,商品税和所得税均挤出居民消费需求,但开征利息税能够显著降低个人所得税对居民消费需求的抑制效应。基于理论分析与实证估计结果,本文认为,政府为了提高税收政策对居民消费需求调节的针对性与激励效果,应充分发挥税收政策的结构效应,积极推进与实行“有增有减”的新一轮税制改革,构建与扩大居民消费需求相协调的税制结构。     

动态能力、微观能动主体与组织能力提升

在动荡变化的环境中,企业仅仅拥有"VRIN"属性的资源与能力将难以维持竞争优势,只有不断提升组织能力才是企业基业长青的惟一出路。动态能力在组织能力提升中起重要作用,但动态能力的定义自提出至今仍然模糊不清。本文澄清了动态能力的概念内涵,深入分析了企业高层管理者作为动态能力微观能动主体的角色,并在动态能力及其微观能动主体的基础上构建了一个颇具解释力的组织能力提升框架。     

政府支出与私人消费的关系研究——基于跨国数据(1983-2008年)的面板协整分析

文章运用面板协整分析方法和世界上36个国家(20个发达国家和16个发展中国家)1983-2008年的面板数据进行跨国研究,通过建立变系数面板模型并结合可支配收入和宏观经济环境的影响,分析了政府支出和私人消费的关系。研究结果显示,总体上而言,样本国家的政府消费支出与私人消费成互补关系,可支配收入仍然是影响私人消费的主要因素,宏观经济环境(经济开放程度和失业率)对消费的影响在统计上很不显著。为了扩大消费,中国政府应实施积极的财政政策、扩大财政支出和提高社会保障水平以及切实解决民生基本难题。     

本地市场效应、比较优势动态化与地方中枢型产业的选择

空间经济学理论表明,基于市场规模的产业本地市场效是新的比较优势的源泉。从产业本地市场效应角度考察我国区域间产业发展,利用《中国区域间投入产出表》测算中国不同区域和不同产业的本地市场效应大小,即“超常需求”的大小,发现伴随规模经济的“本地市场效应”可以较好地解释我国产业空间结构的现象。根据产业本地市场效应,即以市场需求为导向来培育主要产业是构建现代产业体系的途径之一,是未来我国产业升级的重要方向。     

公共支出与经济增长关系的新视角——基于省际面板数据的经验研究

本文在三个前提假设的基础上,构建了一个简单的解释经济增长的理论框架,并由此建立了两个计量模型,通过对中国14个省区1991至2003年的面板数据的实证检验,得出在转型经济时期的中国,公共支出、政府消费性支出都对经济增长有显著的正向作用,而公共支出中的转移性支出与经济增长呈现非常弱的正相关关系.实证检验结果的政策意义在于,(1)作为宏观调控的手段之一,公共支出仍然对经济增长有显著正效应.(2)有关政府部门应当重视并发挥好公共支出中转移性支出的功能.     

Detecting policy effects with wage rigidity and instability – evidence on the Taiwan labour market

With stagnant wages and growing productivity, a widening gap is becoming prevalent in global labour markets. The relationship between wages and productivity has become indeterminate, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. This article presents the phenomenon for why salary rarely follows up with productivity after an economy recovers. By using the GMM method, this study shows the interaction among wage, productivity and tightness, in which we illustrate the Taiwan labour market as an example to show how hiring system changes press wages away from an efficient allocation, causing instability and market failure. Surveying 35 labour markets for different industries, we reveal that the situation in the labour markets has drastically changed since 2008. We find that this resulted in a severe problem when the Taiwan firms got used to policies like ‘22K’, ‘fix-term contract’ and ‘unpaid leave’ programmes. These plans negatively impacted the economy and raised market failure with instability.     

Auction theory adaptations for real life applications

We develop extensions to auction theory results that are useful in real life scenarios.1. Since valuations are generally positive we first develop approximations using the log-normal distribution. This would be useful for many finance related auction settings since asset prices are usually non-negative.2. We formulate a positive symmetric discrete distribution, which is likely to be followed by the total number of auction participants, and incorporate this into auction theory results.3. We develop extensions when the valuations of the bidders are interdependent and incorporate all the results developed into a final combined realistic setting.4. Our methods can be a practical tool for bidders and auction sellers to maximize their profits. The models developed here could be potentially useful for inventory estimation and for wholesale procurement of financial instruments and also non-financial commodities.All the propositions are new results and they refer to existing results which are stated as Lemmas.     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的“库兹涅茨效应”研究

中国当前的金融发展规模显著拉大城乡收入差距.加强农业贷款对农民收入增长具有显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距.金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小,在金融发展和收入差距之间存在库兹涅茨效应.金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系.金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之问存在双向因果关系.     

Macroeconomic Policy Design in the European Monetary Union: A Numerical Game Approach

Optimal economic reactions of European policy-makers on exogenous shocks are determined by simulating a global macroeconomic model under different institutional arrangements. In particular, it is investigated whether discretionary or rule-based policies and whether non-cooperative or cooperative policies for Europe result in a better performance as measured by intertemporal objective functions. The results show that the answers to these questions depend strongly on the nature of the shock to which European economies are exposed. For a negative supply shock, rule-based policies dominate, whereas for a negative demand shock, cooperative fiscal policy-making within the European Monetary Union gives the best results.     

Convergence,technological interdependence and spatial externalities: a spatial dynamic panel data analysis

This study adopts a spatial dynamic panel data approach and spatial quasi-maximum likelihood to re-estimate the speed of growth convergence in 91 countries based on technological interdependence and spatial externalities. We perform a conditional Lagrange multiplier test for spatial error dependence and find some differences to previous studies. First, the switch from a cross-sectional to a dynamic panel data framework enables the estimated rate of conditional convergence to be higher, more accurate and more appropriate for realistic and theoretical expectations. Second, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) is a general form of simplified model that considers spatial error correlation, and its likelihood ratio test for the theoretical model of ‘learning by doing’ effect provides further evidence. Finally, statistical tests find that spatial correlation not only occurs in each variable, but also appears in the error term. Thus, the SDM does not exist in the assumptions associated with the spatial error, which are not necessarily correct.