基于游客分类的温泉旅游服务品质研究——以新丰云天海温泉原始森林度假区为例

本文以新丰云天海温泉原始森林度假区为例,通过问卷调查数据分析将游客分为便利性导向型游客和自然资源导向型游客两类,采用IPA分析方法研究不同类型游客对温泉旅游服务品质的需求特点,提出温泉企业应分类游客、精确定位,重视"游客重视的服务品质",改善游客"差评"的服务品质,关注指标的综合性评价、开发多种类型的配套旅游产品等。     

Early warning signals using AVaRs of infinitely divisible GARCH models — evidence from stock index markets

Classical time series models have failed to properly assess the risks that are associated with large adverse stock price behaviour. This article contributes to autoregressive moving average model–GARCH (ARMA–GARCH) models with standard infinitely divisible innovations and assesses the performance of these models by comparing them with other time series models that have normal innovation. We discuss the limitations of value at risk (VaR) and aim to develop early warning signal models using average value at risk (AVaRs) based on the ARMA–GARCH model with standard infinitely divisible innovations. Empirical results for the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, the England Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index and the Japan Nikkei 225 Index reveal that estimating AVaRs for the ARMA–GARCH model with standard infinitely divisible innovations offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during periods of distress in financial markets and provides a suitable early warning signal in both extreme events and highly volatile markets.     

超高性能混凝土的研究和应用综述

超高性能混凝土（UHPC）是一种超高强度、高耐久性的工程材料,在建筑工程领域具有广阔前景。但原材料取材苛刻、工作性和收缩性对环境较敏感等问题限制了其应用发展。文章从UHPC的原材料及工作性和早期收缩性能的影响因素方面进行了综述,为UHPC的研究和发展提供参考。     

无碱湿喷混凝土在隧道施工中的应用

无碱湿喷技术是当代最先进的喷射混凝土技术,大瑞铁路大柱山隧道初支喷射混凝土采用了无碱湿喷技术,取得了较好的效果。     

Education budget savings from ending child marriage and early childbirths: the case of Niger

Ending child marriage and early childbirths would reduce total fertility rates and population growth especially in countries with a high incidence of child marriage, early childbirths, or both. Savings for public budgets could be large. This article relies on demographic projections and a UNESCO costing model for the provision of education by governments to estimate savings that could result from ending child marriage and early childbirths for public education budgets. The analysis is conducted for Niger, the country with the highest rate of child marriage in the world.     

奇瑞QQ轿车膜片弹簧离合器分离载荷特性计算方法研究

本文对膜片弹簧离合器的分离载荷特性进行了分析,在考虑从动盘弹性特性的基础上,建立了膜片弹簧离合器的力学模型。根据该模型,推导出了离合器分离载荷特性的计算方法。以奇瑞QQ汽车推式膜片弹簧离合器为例,运用MATLAB软件编程,计算出该离合器的分离载荷特性曲线,并研究了面片磨损、从动盘弹性减弱等因素对膜片弹簧分离载荷特性的影响。     

Does site-of-care for oncology infusion therapy influence treatment patterns,cost, and quality in the United States?

Background: The increase in hospital acquisition of community oncology clinics in the US has led to a shift in the site-of-care (SOC) for infusion therapy from the physician office (PO) to the hospital outpatient (HO) setting.

Objective: To investigate differences by SOC in treatment patterns, quality, and cost among patients with cancer undergoing first-line infusion therapy.

Research design and methods: This retrospective analysis identified adult patients from Humana medical claims who initiated infusion therapy from 2008–2012 for five common cancer types in which infusion therapy is likely, including early stage breast cancer; metastatic breast, lung, and colorectal cancers; and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma or chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Differences by SOC in first-line treatment patterns and quality of care at end-of-life, defined as infusions or hospitalizations 30 days prior to death, were evaluated using Wilcoxon-Rank Sum and Chi-square tests where appropriate. Differences in cost by SOC were evaluated using risk-adjusted generalized linear models.

Main outcome measures: Treatment patterns, quality of care at end of life, healthcare costs.

Results: There were differences in duration of therapy and number of infusions for some therapy regimens by SOC, in which patients in the HO had shorter duration of therapy and fewer infusions. There were no differences in quality of care at end-of-life by SOC. Total healthcare costs were 15% higher among patients in HO ($55,965) compared with PO ($48,439), p?<?.0001.

Limitations: Analyses was restricted to a claims-based population of cancer patients within a health plan.

Conclusion: This study, in an older, predominantly Medicare Advantage oncology cohort, found differences by SOC in treatment patterns and cost, but not quality. Where differences were found, patients receiving care in the HO had shorter duration of therapy and fewer infusions for specific treatment regimens, but higher healthcare costs than those treated in a PO.     

铁路货运大客户营销与流失预警对策

定义了铁路货运大客户的范畴与类别,提出具有针对性的铁路货运大客户营销方案,具体分析铁路货运大客户流失的原因,并探讨了大客户流失预警的具体对策,能够为铁路货运营销提供理论基础。     

旅游法规建设的一个路径研究——以广东省《温泉旅游服务规范》为例

路径变化是当前完善和加速旅游法规建设的一个重要手段。针对温泉旅游开发的总体规模迅速增大、法规建设跟不上发展需求的现状,以广东省《温泉旅游服务规范》为例,提出了与传统路径“国家制定、地方执行”相异的“有能企业提出并主导、地方政府认可并主持,,的一个新路径。该路径对改善“有法不依”、“无法可依”状况,对温泉旅游的可持续发展,具有积极意义。