项目进度管理的研究现状及其展望

本文对项目进度管理的研究现状进行了总结,介绍了它的基本概念及其常用的几种计划控制技术,总结了项目进度管理的研究现状,主要分为三个方面：时间-费用(成本)优化、资源约束下的项目进度计划、作业活动时间的反映及其计划技术创新,指出了管理理念、管理方法、先进应用方式的提升是项目进度管理的研究方向。     

监理工程师对混凝土质量验收的数理统计方法

介绍了数理统计方法在深圳市某多层建筑混凝土质量控制中的运用,分析了监理工程师如何运用数理统计公式对混凝土进行质量控制和质量验收的方法．     

我国企业应用作业成本法面临的问题及对策

随着高科技在企业中的应用、市场竞争的加剧和顾客需求的多样化,作业成本法在我国企业应用的客观条件越来越成熟,对其展开的理论研究也必然有着广阔的空间和潜力。笔者从探讨应用作业成本法的实现途径与寻求解决作业成本法应用环境中存在问题的可行办法入手,以期对作业成本法在我国企业的应用有所帮助。     

供应链企业激励机制的构建

在简要介绍了一般激励理论内容的基础上,分析了供应链企业激励机制的特点,并结合供应链运作实际,提出了几种有效的激励方法。     

基于主成分分析的多元线性回归用水量模型研究——以安徽省为例

用水量的准确预测对水资源规划具有重要意义。根据统计资料,选取了八项主要影响用水量变化的指标。按照主成分分析法原理,运用少数综合因子对影响用水量变化的原有八项指标进行了综合和简化,并研究其贡献率及综合效应;分析了用水量增长的特点,选用Logistic方程对综合因子进行回归分析;结合多元线性回归方法,建立了安徽省用水量模型;拟合结果表明,模型具有较高的精度;运用该模型,对安徽省2010年的用水量进行了预测;为水资源规划与管理提供参考依据。     

渐开线圆柱齿轮的形位误差探讨

从误差角度分析，综述ＧＢ１００９５－８８《渐开线圆柱齿轮精度》误差的表达方法。     

Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of stable VAR models by means of the delta method. These covariance matrices can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions to assess the underlying estimation uncertainty. The usefulness of the formulae for empirical work is illustrated by an application to inflation and output gap data for the U.S. economy indicating the existence of a significant short-run Phillips-curve tradeoff.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

中国移动运营市场竞争格局情景分析

中国的移动运营市场一直是中国移动(2000年前为中国电信)和联通两家的双寡头竞争格局.鉴于情景分析法的特点和移动运营市场面临的形势,对移动运营市场后3G时代的竞争格局分析适宜采用情景分析法来预测中国进入3G时代后移动运营市场的几种竞争格局.并可以对每种格局产生的可能性、途径以及各种情景所带来的后果进行详细的比对,这样对我国移动运营市场的健康良性发展可提供一些有益的决策参考.     

基于熵权的信息工程监理风险评估

本文利用模糊评判方法对信息工程监理进行风险评估，对各风险因素分别从风险发生的概率和风险产生的影响两方面进行评估。采用熵权系数法对风险因素的权重进行客观计算，克服了专家评判的主观性。通过实例分析表明该方法是有效和实用的。     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.