The effectiveness of weather index insurance in managing mariculture production risk

Mariculture is a high-risk industry that is susceptible to weather disasters. However, due to moral hazard, adverse selection and high transaction costs, traditional indemnity insurance policies are not available. An emerging alternative is the development of weather index mariculture insurance. This research assesses the effectiveness of weather index mariculture insurance by using the swimming crab precipitation index insurance as an example. The theoretical and empirical results suggest that weather index mariculture insurance is not always effective. It cannot be guaranteed to promote the welfare of mariculturists and reduce the tail risk of income, especially in the case of gross rates. However, in the case of low basis risk, it could be a viable option for the government because of the low subsidy cost required.     

改性PET沉淀设备工程实例

目前在市政净水处理厂和企业生产用水处理厂由于斜板发生型变、位移、滋生藻类造成滑泥不顺畅甚至堵塞致使最后的水处理工艺出水水质达不到生产、生活要求的现象较多.其原因在于混凝-沉淀的一般性斜板在使用过程中存在两个问题,一是热熔焊接的斜板,焊点凹凸不平,容易积泥、滋生细菌和藻类影响斜板的水力条件,再有问题是塑料斜板在紫外照射的...     

Determinants of Land Use in Amazônia: A Fine-Scale Spatial Analysis

Wetter areas of the Amazon basin exhibit lower rates of agricultural conversion. Previous analyses, using relatively aggregate data on land cover, have been unable to determine the extent to which this reflects limited access versus unfavorable agroclimatic conditions. This article uses census-tract level data for the Brazilian Amazon to relate forest conversion and pasture productivity to precipitation, soil quality, infrastructure and market access, proximity to past conversion, and protection status. The probability that land is used for agriculture or intensively stocked with cattle declines markedly with increasing rainfall, other things equal.     

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two‐factor model available in the literature.     

湖南省各地市州农作物总产量比较分析

农作物产量与自然条件息息相关,并且直接关系到湖南省的综合发展,本文分别从气温、降水、日照时数、耕地面积4个指标对湖南省14个地市州进行全面测度和比较;运用主成分分析法分析因子的贡献率和各因子载荷量。结果表明农作物总产量搞的是常德、衡阳、邵阳;而张家界、湘西农作物产量低。     

黑龙江省创业农场降水资源高效利用研究

通过对创业农场多年的降水观测记录研究,得出创业农场降水资源年际变化较大,年内分配不合理的结论;针对创业农场的实际,提出对有限降水实现高效利用的建议。     

台风“莫拉克”造成商水县特大暴雨洪灾的分析

台风暴雨是台风灾害的主要形式之一,同时也是我国中东部地区的一种重要降水类型。研究中国台风暴雨的气候特征,首要的意义在于防灾减灾,另外对辨别和把握我国气候变化的态势也有重要价值。2009年8月11日因台风＂莫拉克＂带来了一次连续性暴雨天气过程,给商水县造成了重大的经济损失。现将＂莫拉克＂影响前期的物象特征,与其有关的几个因素及其利与弊作一简单的分析。     

我国第三方支付沉淀资金监管的博弈论分析

国内电子商务的迅猛发展导致第三方支付业务交易量增加显著。它在给人们带来极大便利的同时,也引起人们对相应第三方支付行业中大笔沉淀资金的挪用及账户中产生利息的归宿问题的关注。近期央行采取颁发营业牌照的措施以抬高第三方支付业务准入门槛,进一步引发人们对第三方支付业务中存在的诸多问题的讨论。本文通过分析沉淀资金的形成、积累及利用和相应利息的配置,借用博弈分析方法对支付矩阵进行推导,在加强第三方支付行业沉淀资金监管的基础上,针对性提出央行应给予第三方支付机构适度利用沉淀资金的权利、沉淀资金利息多样化配置、构建评价体系、促进信息公开化的观点。     

荔波县年降水的ARMA预测模型

文章应用时间序列分析方法,对贵州省荔波县多年降水系列进行分析,将其分解为趋势项、周期项和平稳随机项,建立了时间序列分解预测模型,实例验证结果令人满意,表明了该模型的有效性和适用性,其预测的结果可以用作荔波县旱情预测的参考依据。     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.