Heterogeneous treatment effects and mechanisms in information-based environmental policies: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment

Policymakers often rely on non-pecuniary, information-based programs to achieve social objectives. Using data from a water conservation information campaign implemented as a randomized controlled trial, we estimate heterogeneous household responses. Understanding such heterogeneity is important for improving the cost-effectiveness of non-pecuniary programs, extending them to other populations and probing the mechanisms through which the treatment effects arise. We find little evidence of heterogeneous responses to purely technical information or to traditional conservation messages that combine technical information and moral suasion. In contrast, norm-based messages that combine technical information, moral suasion and social comparisons exhibit strong heterogeneity: households that are wealthier, owner-occupied and use more water are more responsive. These subgroups tend to be least responsive to pecuniary incentives. We find no evidence that any subgroup increases their water use in response to the messages. By targeting the messages to subgroups known to be most responsive, program costs could be reduced by over 50% with only a 20% reduction in the treatment effect. Combining theory and data, we also shed light on the mechanisms through which the treatment effects arise, which has implications for program design and future research on the program's welfare effects.     

When will payoff maximization survive? An indirect evolutionary analysis

Survival of payoff maximization is the usual as if-justification for assuming rational economic agents. An indirect evolutionary analysis allows for stimuli which are not directly related to reproductive success although they affect behavior. One first determines the solution for all possible constellations of stimuli, and then the evolutionarily stable stimuli. Our general analysis confirms the special results of former studies that payoff maximization in case of commonly known stimuli requires either that own success does not depend on other's behavior or that other's behavior is not influenced by own stimuli. When stimuli are private information, one can derive similar necessary conditions.     

The value and effects of introducing high standard train and bus concepts in Blekinge, Sweden

A set of improvements were introduced on a railway line in the south of Sweden in January 1992, including a new train concept, improved timetable and lower fares. The new train replaced a combination of old rail cars and standard coaches (bus). Furthermore, 18 months later, a new high comfort coach (bus) service was introduced as a complement to the train timetable to increase the number of departures. Forecasts from a national four-step model system, based on Revealed Preference data, which did not cover explanatory factors like mode concept, comfort, mode image, was made and compared with a forecast based on stated preference data choice model. Both type of forecasts were compared to travel statistics. Stated Preference data have been collected from car drivers, coach and train passengers. The set of improvements have been included in the SP alternatives presented to the subjects. A structured logit model, a regression model and a linear programming model are compared. Unstructured and structured logit models are compared. Logit models have been estimated and used to form a mode choice model which predicts the changes in market shares between the train and car. The choice model forecast coincide, accidentally, with actual demand 8–9 months after the introduction of the set of improvements (a 40% increase in journeys). The set of improvements, including the new train service, has proven to be a success with more than 100% increase in travel after only two years of operation. Differences in estimated logit models for 1991 and 1992 are explained as partly due to asymmetry effects and partly to shortcomings in the SP data collection technique. Logit model estimates for train and coach are compared. The value of high standard coach service, running in parallel to the train, is estimated. The new coach gained few new passengers and also a much lower monetary value than the train by both train and bus passengers.     

Sexual Selection and Economic Positioning

Synopsis In their recent survey of Darwinian aesthetics, Grammer et al. (2003) note the surprising lack of a connection between studies related to human beauty and the theory of sexual selection. Understanding this missing link sheds new light on recent research that indicates positional concerns Pingle & Mitchell 2002, Solnick & Hemenway 1998, are important factors in the decision-making process. Integrating the theory of sexual selection into the decision framework found in economics makes it possible to explain why individuals are potentially willing to accept less, as long as it places them in a superior position relative to others.     

Agricultural Policy Reform and Off‐farm Labour Decisions

Off‐farm labour decisions of a sample of Kansas farmers are evaluated. The central question of our analysis pertains to whether 1996 US farm policy reforms may have altered the decisions to work off the farm. The effects of policy decoupling on off‐farm labour are complex: different aspects of policy changes can have opposing effects on off‐farm work decisions. Essentially, this makes this issue an empirical question. Results show that the introduction of fixed, decoupled payments in 1996 might have reduced the likelihood of off‐farm labour participation. However, the new policy environment may have increased farm households’ revealed aversion to risk, motivating a higher participation in non‐farm labour markets. The effects of 1996 policy reforms on farm income variability could have been attenuated by changes in US crop insurance programmes and by an increase in emergency assistance payments towards the end of the 1990s. The reduction in price supports may have increased the motivation for working off the farm. The net effect of the overall reforms on off‐farm work participation is not likely to have been large.     

An Exploratory Examination of Serious Surfers: Implications for the Surf Tourism Industry

Surf tourism is a multibillion dollar industry expected to continue expanding. Despite such economic significance, the surf tourism literature has gaps related to surf tourism segments. In response, this study applied the serious leisure framework to profile serious surfers and contrast their sociodemographic composition and travel behaviors. Although more serious surfers are more avid travelers in the quest for the perfect wave as compared with less serious surfers, preference for local attractions and conveniences did not vary between groups. In addition to contributing the scholarship of serious leisure and surf tourism, this study provides insights for the surf tourism industry. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the Benefit Sought by Rural Tourists and Accommodation Preferences: A South Korea Case

Rural tourism has been widely acknowledged for its effectiveness in contributing to rural areas’ development. With strong government support, rural tourism has developed in many countries during the last several decades. This study aims to improve the understanding regarding tourism in Korean rural areas using a segmentation approach. The responses of 442 tourists in 23 rural villages were analyzed. Four segments of tourists were identified based on the different benefits they sought for their vacation in rural establishments. The estimation of a multinomial logit model determined the socio‐demographic characteristics and the preferred accommodations of a rural tourist. Discussions and implications of the detailed findings are provided in the last section. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalised Rational Bias in Financial Forecasts

Laster et al. (Q J Econ 114(1):293–318, 1999) built an economic model in which forecasters have incentives to generate forecasts that differ form the consensus. It is shown that the dispersion of the equilibrium distribution of forecasters, depends on the relative importance given on the intensive forecast users’ loss versus the publicity gain from occasional users. These results depend heavily on the assumption of symmetry for the loss and density functions. In this paper we examine the effects of generalising loss preferences and probability densities to allow for asymmetries through the LinEx loss and the Skewed Normal density, respectively. We derive the generalised equilibrium distribution of forecasts which contains the results of Laster et al. as a special case. The presence of asymmetric preferences is shown to cause a movement of the distribution away from the conditional mean, towards the optimal forecast under loss asymmetry. Furthermore, forecasts now tend to cluster around this quantity in an asymmetric way. These effects tend to be further strengthened or partially offset by the presence of skewness in the distribution of data, a result consistent with the conclusions of Christodoulakis (Finan Res Lett 2:227–233, 2005).The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments that have improved the paper. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and should in no part be attributed to the Bank of Greece.     

Strategy-proof Location on a Network

We consider rules that choose a location on a graph (e.g. a road network) based on agents' single-peaked preferences. First, we characterize the class of strategy-proof, onto rules when the graph is a tree. Such a rule is based on a collection of generalized median voter rules (Moulin, 1980) satisfying a consistency condition. Second, we characterize such rules for graphs containing cycles. We show that while such a rule is not necessarily dictatorial, the existence of a cycle grants some agent an amount of decisive power, unlike the case of trees. Rules for this case can be described in terms of a subclass of such rules for trees. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D78.