我国住房抵押贷款证券化的必要性和可行性分析

随着我国房地产业的高速发展和单一的房地产银行融资手段，我国商业银行住房抵押贷款余额占其贷款余额的比重越来越高，从而使得我国商业银行面临的金融风险越来越大，而且单一的银行融资手段不利于我国房地产业的高速发展，住房抵押贷款证券化对我国房地产业和银行业的发展意义巨大。本文试分析了住房抵押贷款证券化这一金融创新工具在我国实行的必要性和可行性。     

一项关于价格水平决定的财政理论的实证研究

本文遵循Sala的五变量VAR方法发现,在绝大部分时间里,实际利率对一个标准差的实际税收正向冲击的反应为正,这就为价格水平决定的财政理论提供了来自中国的经验证据的支持。除此之外,与很多学者一样,本文还发现了实际税收冲击的非凯恩斯效应。     

计划、市场与分权--兼论我国分权化改革的经济体制背景

分权并不简单地与某一特定的经济体制联系在一起,但就自身性质而言．分权却是与计划经济体制相悖的,这就决定了在计划经济体制下推行分权化改革必将破坏计划经济集权的体制基础。分权与市场经济体制具有相容性,使得在市场经济中成功地进行分权化改革至少具备了理论上的可行性。在新旧体制并存的转轨时期．为了分权化改革的成功,我国应注意处理好分权、计划与市场之间的相互关系。     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound

This paper constructs a two‐country core–periphery New Keynesian model of a currency union to address the interaction between the objectives of regionally directed fiscal policy constrained by a single currency and the aggregate use of fiscal policy in face of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on policy interest rates. We identify an optimal path of aggregate and relative fiscal policy responses to a negative region‐specific demand shock. Our results show that (i) in a monetary union, the optimal policy response to an asymmetric reduction in demand concentrated in the periphery always entails a relative shift of fiscal expenditure toward the worse‐affected regions, (ii) though no aggregate fiscal response is required outside the ZLB, and (iii) optimal union‐wide fiscal policy is expansionary at the ZLB. Therefore, optimal policy always entails an expansion in the periphery at the ZLB, but the optimal fiscal response in the core regions can be either expansionary or contractionary depending on the parameters of the model. However, (iv) fiscal expansion in the core is warranted if the periphery cannot implement an expansion due to constraints on public spending.     

欧债危机以来意大利经济改革措施

欧债危机以来,为了摆脱困境,意大利实施了一系列经济改革措施。文章从实施财政紧缩政策和经济结构性改革两个方面对意大利近年来经济改革措施进行了梳理,并对意大利债务形势和经济前景进行了展望。     

后金融危机时期解读我国宏观经济政策

在国际金融危机持续蔓延时期,各国出台相应政策扭转不利局势。我国政府在2008年和2009年也出台了多项宏观政策来应对危机,并取得了一定的成效。危机已过,余波未平,在后金融危机时期,这些政策发挥着怎样的作用,今后宏观调控的方针和措施是什么?本文将针对这些问题一一解读。     

Where Should the Elderly Live and Who Should Pay for Their Care?*

We consider a model with a population consisting of earners and retired persons; elderly care is publicly provided. There is one big city, where congestion effects and agglomeration forces are at work, and a number of small villages. We show how the externalities related to population mobility lead to an inefficient spatial distribution of earners and retirees, and we characterize the second‐best solution. Decentralization of this solution in a fiscal federalism structure requires the use of taxes and subsidies proportional to the number of earners and retired persons living in the city and the villages.     

多级政府级次下的经济增长与财政支出规模优化研究

笔者在巴罗经济增长模型的基础上,建立了一个两级政府提供公共物品的经济增长数理模型,说明政府级次划分对经济增长绩效的影响.并采用计量分析的方法,分别对我国中央政府与地方政府财政事权划分的合理性、最优事权划分标准进行了检验与测算.