皖港贸易对皖服务业影响的实证研究

建立了VAR模型试图分析这皖港之间的进出口贸易对安徽服务业发展的影响类型及影响程度,联合检验的结果是皖港进出口贸易是皖服务业发展的原因,单独检验的结果认为安徽从香港的出口贸易是安徽服务业的发展的一个内在原因;脉冲分析认为,安徽对香港的出口贸易对安徽服务业的发展有着显著的、积极而持久的影响,而安徽从香港的进口贸易对安徽服务业的影响相对不够显著;方差分解的结果与脉冲图像分解的结论一致。最后提出一些政策建议和措施。     

Dialect,transaction cost and intra-national trade: evidence from China

Growing evidence emphasizes the important role of network effects on bilateral trade. This paper proposes a new factor – dialect difference, which decreases social network across regions, may increase transaction costs and thus shape interregional trade pattern. Taking China as an example, we use a gravity model considering network effects and provincial data from 1997 to 2009 to examine the effect of dialect difference on intra-national trade. We find that dialect difference has a significantly negative effect on interprovincial trade. Moreover, this paper explores the time dimension of the effect of dialect difference. We find that the negative effects of dialect difference on trade have been diminishing over time. Migration and the promotion of Mandarin have increased interregional cultural connections and thus mitigated the negative effects of dialect difference.     

酒店行业发展环境及酒店产品设计策略探讨

文章分析了酒店行业发展形势,剖析了当前酒店行业发展的弊端和劣势,在总结酒店行业发展前景的基础上,提出了酒店产品设计的策略。     

GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

There are different academic assessments of the principal forces behind Russia’s GDP growth. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks using gross fixed capital formation and the perpetual inventory method find that total factor productivity growth has been paramount to GDP growth. On the other hand, capital services datasets that have recently been made available find that capital developments have been instrumental in driving economic growth. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia for 1995–2013 and compare the results to two capital services time series using the Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support to Russia’s economy. The terms of trade is shown to have been an important factor behind the development of gross fixed capital formation and thus GDP growth.     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

ENDOGENOUS TIMING IN QUALITY CHOICES AND PRICE COMPETITION

We modify the price‐setting version of the vertically differentiated duopoly model by Aoki (2003) by introducing an extended game in which firms noncooperatively choose the timing of moves at the quality stage. Our results show that there are multiple equilibria in pure strategies, whereby firms always select sequential play at the quality stage. We also investigate the mixed‐strategy equilibrium, revealing that the probability of generating outcomes out of equilibrium is higher than the probability of playing one Nash equilibria in pure strategies. In the alternative case with full market coverage, we show that the quality stage is solved in dominant strategies and therefore the choice of roles becomes irrelevant as the Nash and Stackelberg solutions coincide. With full market coverage and corner solution, the results show that the game has a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in pure strategies, where the high‐quality firm takes the lead in the quality stage.     

Rewarding customers who keep a product: How reinforcement affects customers' product return decision in online retailing

A lenient product return policy represents the status quo of current return management practice in online retailing because it increases customers' order tendency. However, at the same time, many customers tend to return products under this policy, which incurs considerable costs for retailers. The present research introduces a keep reward (i.e., providing incentives to keep a product) as a new promotion strategy to improve the conventional lenient policy. Drawing on operant conditioning, the authors propose and test the reinforcing effect of a keep reward on customers' keep decision, compared to the conventional lenient policy. Results of a qualitative pilot study suggest that a keep reward is generally feasible in online retailing practice, especially in the low‐ to mid‐price segment and with rewards that are linked to future purchases. Two experimental studies verify the positive effect of a keep reward. Study 1 shows that it substantially increases keep intention compared to a conventional lenient policy. Study 2 shows that the effect on keep intention is moderated by customers' online shopping frequency, and this moderating effect is mediated by repurchase intention. In particular, the keep reward is most effective among frequent shoppers because they are more inclined to repurchase and thus, benefit from the reward. In summary, both studies support the keep reward as a valuable add‐on to the conventional lenient policy because order intention remains comparably high, while keep intention is higher. Theoretical implications and recommendations for online retailers on how to implement a keep reward in different industries are discussed.     

The political economy of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: a ‘21st Century’ trade agreement?

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was the first of the ‘Mega-FTAs’ to be signed. Had it been ratified, it would have created the world’s largest preferential trade area. The negotiators of the TPP aspired to create ‘a next-generation transformative agreement’ that would address a new trade agenda focused on regulatory coherence and business facilitation. The expectation was that this agenda would generate a 21st Century trade politics that would be less contentious, at least among business actors, than traditional negotiations on market access. Studies of another Mega-FTA under negotiation, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that has a similar agenda found unified business support for the agreement domestically and the emergence of transnational business coalitions in support of the agreement. Recent theorising on trade politics suggests, however, that global value chains (GVCs) that involve vertical intra-industry trade introduce ‘traditional’ distributional issues that will divide business interests domestically – and, in the case of GVCs organised on different geographical bases, internationally as well. This cleavage was evident in the TPP negotiations, unlike those for TTIP, as were other divisions among business – both domestically and across countries – over the sharing of existing rents and of new rents generated by regulatory harmonisation.     

Bad loans,soft budget constraints and the political economy of financial market reform in transition economies

Financial market imperfections and especially the bad debt problem are among the most important factors impeding economic restructuring in transition economies. This paper analyses the implications of non-performing loans for the lending policy of banks and for the ensuing allocation of credit. It is shown that a lending bias exists in favour of old debtors, which not only impedes structural change but may also counteract policies intended to harden budget constraints and to promote restructuring. The paper also discusses from a political economy perspective, why despite these negative implications financial market reforms were not pursued more forcefully in most countries.     

The Effects of International Trade on Economic Growth and Meeting Basic Human Needs

Abstract

This research measures the influence of international marketing, in the form of exporting and importing on economic growth and meeting basic human needs. The conceptual model examines the effects of three categories of trade (agricultural products, raw materials, and manufacturing goods) on economic growth and meeting basic human needs. The analysis uses structural equation models with time-lagged independent variables, multiple indicators of the dependent variables, and newly-developed multivariate outlier analysis techniques. This study contributes to the marketing literature by empirically evaluating macro-level effects of international marketing, i.e., exporting and importing, and by testing the predictive validity of competing theories from sociology, economics, and marketing. The findings have practical implications for public policy officials, marketing managers, and future research.