Forestry,Forest Fires,and Climate Change in Indonesia

In recent months, strong global growth, rebounding commodity prices, and relatively accommodative financial conditions have benefited the Indonesian economy. The first quarter of 2017 in Indonesia saw resilient GDP growth, moderate inflation, stable exchange rates, an increase in the growth of non-oil exports, and an investment upgrade from ratings agency Standard & Poor's. Investment growth, however, did not pick up enough to drive overall growth to a higher rate. The poor quality of banking-sector assets and the gaps in tax revenue—despite the fulfilment of the government's tax-amnesty program—are two of the most immediate economic concerns. President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), who is well into the second half of his term, is under pressure to deliver on his development platform, which includes making progress in sustainable development and climate change mitigation. The effective management of forests is key to this platform. There has been longstanding tension over Indonesia's forests between the protection of environmental values, including carbon storage, and the production of valuable commodities, including timber, palm oil, and pulpwood, which generate revenue and employment. We survey recent developments in four storylines related to forestry and climate change: first, Indonesia's commitment to reducing emissions to 29%–41% below projected business-as-usual levels by 2030, as well as the international climate agreements and finance that can help achieve this commitment; second, land-use rights and regulations, including a moratorium on clearing, draining, or setting fires on peatland; third, measures to prevent catastrophic forest fires like those during the 2015 El Niño, including the establishment of the Peatland Restoration Agency; and, fourth, the actions of non-state actors, especially large agribusinesses, in managing forests and peatland. We conclude by discussing differences in the approaches of Jokowi's administration and those of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration and by questioning whether Indonesia's budgeted resources, actions, and results to date are commensurate with its climate commitments.     

互联网金融的信用风险评估与预警研究

随着互联网金融的蓬勃发展,用户对消费金融的需求也越来越丰富多样。满足用户的多样化需求与建立健全风险监管体系成为互联网金融发展的重中之重。如何实现数据驱动服务升级、技术辅助市场监管成为研究的热点问题。本文通过数据处理与特征工程实现用户认证信息、金融信息、行为信息的融合,利用深度森林算法建立模型进行信用风险评估。结果表明,该方法能有效挖掘数据潜在价值,提高信用风险评估与预警效果。最后,本文针对互联网金融的信用风险预警与市场监管提出了建议。     

基于机器学习的斜坡堤越浪量预测方法研究

针对斜坡堤越浪量预测方法,分别建立集成神经网络(ensemble neural network,ENN)、随机森林(random for-eset,RF)和支持向量回归机(suppport vector regression,SVR)3种机器学习模型对斜坡堤越浪量进行预测,并利用决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE来评估模型性能.最后,对3种模型的性能进行分析.结果显示,集成神经网络模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RM S E分别约为0.96和0.0018,随机森林模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE分别约为0.97和0.0014,支持向量回归机模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE分别约为0.94和0.002.对比发现,3种模型的决定系数都达到0.9以上,都具有较高的预测精度,随机森林相比其他两个模型精度更高.     

新形势下的旅游产品设计——心理疏导型森林休闲产品开发可行性研究

文章论述了国内外关于心理疏导与森林休闲的研究现状,心理疏导型游憩林设计及其产品开发构想,并对浙江天目山心理疏导型森林休闲产品开发的可行性进行了实证调查和分析。     

On uniform convergence of undiscounted optimal programs in the Mitra–Wan forestry model: The strictly concave case

In this paper, we show that the 1986 Mitra–Wan result establishing asymptotic convergence of maximal programs to the unique golden-rule forest in the case of undiscounted, strictly concave felicity functions can be strengthened, in the same setting, to the  uniform  asymptotic convergence of  optimal  programs to the unique golden-rule forest. We work with a notationally reformulated version of the model that may have independent interest.     

森林种质资源资产的会计计量

以保护森林种质资源天然基因库为目的,结合中国市场经济发展的要求,首先进行种质资源的界定,侧重在微观层次上从定量角度,运用会计学的方法对森林种质资源问题进行分析,为制定环境政策和加强种质资源管理提供决策依据。     

林农可持续经营模式行为选择与约束影响分析

基于广东省韶关市抽样调查样本数据,对集体林权改革后农户林业经营模式的选择行为影响因素进行分析,利用Logistic模型对农户选择行为与各个自变量进行了回归。认为农户家庭的劳动力,林地的细碎化程度,农民对集体林改的了解程度,农户林权的完备程度以及林业收入占家庭总收入的比重等因素对农户林业经营模式的选择行为具有不同程度和方向的影响。文章在对回归结果分析的基础上结合SSCP范式,对农户选择行为逻辑做了较为深入的剖析和解释,认为林业经营模式只有与资源特征与制度环境相匹配时才能实现效益的最大化和经营的可持续性。     

福建省生态公益林碳汇经济效益影响因子研究

根据对福建省6个样本县进行样地调查及其农户访谈式问卷调查的资料,首先应用因子分析法对影响福建省生态公益林碳汇效益的主要因子进行分析,然后将碳汇效益与主要因子进行逐步多元回归分析。结果表明:坡度、林龄、树种、蓄积量、碳汇量、重置成本、降水量、碳汇价格是影响福建省生态公益林碳汇效益的主要因子;碳汇价格、蓄积量和重置成本对福建省生态公益林碳汇效益影响显著;碳汇价格、蓄积量与碳汇效益呈正相关,重置成本与碳汇效益呈负相关。     

伊春国有林林改职工投资行为分析

通过分析林改职工投资行为特征,探讨影响林业投资的深层次制度因素。分析结果表明,林改职工具有林业投资率低、营投资意愿下降较快、倾向于短期效益明显的项目等行为特征,生态效益体现不明显;虽然影响林改职工投资行为的主要原因是资金不足、林业税费高、营林风险高等因素,但深入分析可以发现林改职工投资行为却是在限额采伐管理制度和生态补偿制度约束下的一种理性选择;只有对限额采伐管理和生态补偿这两项林业制度做出适当调整,林改职工才会调整林业投资行为关注生态效益,进而推动中国现代林业的建设进程。