Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece

Residential mobility is a key dimension of population dynamics shaping urban growth and rural development at different spatio-temporal scales. Assuming spatial mobility as increasingly dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of local contexts, the present study investigates long-term and short-term population movements in a European country (Greece), in light of regional urbanization processes and socioeconomic development. A multidimensional analysis of indicators of residential stability and background variables was carried out with the aim at evaluating the influence of local contexts on more general processes of population mobility. Different typologies of spatial mobility associated to factors (directly or indirectly) dependent on demographic dynamics, economic performances and urban cycles were identified. The empirical findings of this study evidence (more or less traditional) paths of internal migration and a latent process of population relocation across metropolitan regions, together with more recent international migrations at both working and retirement age. While short-range population movements were the ultimate result of late suburbanization in Greece, medium- and broad-range mobility consolidated the country's divide in urban and rural areas, evidencing the attractive role of Athens. Spatial direction and intensity of population movements reflect complex socioeconomic transformations, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for a better understanding of future demographic dynamics in Mediterranean Europe.     

Well-being and the Great Recession in Spain

This letter assesses the impact of the Great Recession on well-being in Spanish provinces using two alternative composite indicators of objective well-being that include somewhat different dimensions. Whereas the crisis notably eroded economic well-being, its impact on overall well-being – which in addition to economic dimensions also includes non-economic ones – was imperceptible. This result points to the need to carefully define and assess well-being in empirical analyses.     

广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展战略量化指标构建及分析

创新驱动是推动经济结构战略性调整和产业转型升级的核心战略。从创新链视角出发,构建广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展战略量化指标体系,通过视觉化效果和地理分析功能将经济现象和发生事件图像化,对广东各地市新型专业镇创新驱动发展实施情况及效果进行实证评价,并提出了加快广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展的具体路径。     

Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle: a comparative study for Germany and Switzerland

The use of news-based data for tracking the real economy has gained popularity recently as newspapers archives have become accessible and the need for timely information has soared. In this article, on the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles we construct several versions of the so-called Recession-word Index (RWI) for Germany and Switzerland and exploit its use for forecasting. Our main findings are the following. First, we show that augmenting benchmark autoregressive models with the RWI leads to improvement in accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts of GDP growth compared with those obtained by benchmark models. Second, the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts obtained with models augmented with the RWI is comparable to that of models augmented with established economic indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, and the KOF Economic Barometer and the Purchasing Managers Index in manufacturing for Switzerland. Our results are robust to changes in estimation/forecast samples, the use of rolling versus expanding estimation windows and the inclusion of a web-based recession indicator from Google Trends. As our indices are timely and simple to construct, they could be replicated in countries or regions where no reliable economic indicators exist or their provision is very costly.     

Innovation and industrial renewal in Sweden, 1970–2007

This study explores the question of whether the Swedish innovation output of the 1970s and 1980s (and the following decades) indicates structural lock-in or renewal. It is motivated by inconsistent explanations in the current literature about the relation between the economic slowdown and subsequent industrial renewal, as well as a lack of research focusing, in this context, on the primary driver of economic growth and structural change: innovation. By observing the number and type of innovations as they hit the market, the data in this paper tell a real time story about micro level innovation activity during the time that the economic crisis unfolds. The analysis considers Swedish innovation output between 1970 and 2007, characterising the number of significant innovations, their novelty, and their origin (including size of firm and industry sector). Three central findings emerge, defined by both the time period and the character of innovations. First, the magnitude of innovation activity peaks in the late 1970s to early 1980s. Second, starting in the late 1970s, small firms begin to outperform large firms in terms of both innovation quantity and quality (i.e. world market novelties). Third, the 1980s saw a distinct shift in the industrial origin of innovations, with software and telecom becoming the leaders in innovation output. The findings suggest that the observed industrial renewal is more nuanced than what has emerged from previous research.     

中国股市资金流向优化研究——基于量化指标

在传统资金流向统计方法的基础上引入趋势移动平均价格指标,优点在于考虑到不参与交易的股票对未来股票价格及资金流量的影响,可以弥补传统股票资金流向统计方法存在的缺陷。选取上证50及创业板成分股为研究对象进行验证,实证结果较好地证明了优化资金流向统计方法具有科学性和合理性。     

Tourism demand patterns in turbulent times: analysing Welsh accommodation occupancy data for 1998–2001

Different events in 2001, most notably an outbreak of foot and mouth disease and the 11 September terrorist attacks in the USA, caused many tourist businesses in the UK to experience significant changes in demand volumes. This paper examines the occupancy performance of serviced accommodation establishments in Wales from 1998 to 2001 and focuses especially on the changes in demand patterns in 2001. The approach is based on a combination of principal components and cluster analysis. The results are used to group establishments with similar performance profiles. Detailed conclusions are drawn about the temporal and spatial shifts in demand in 2001. ‘Winners’ and ‘losers’ are identified and several concrete implications for marketing and development policies are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上市公司财务参数与其股价波动性关系探究

本文探究了上市公司年度股价波动性与其上一年公开财务指标的相关关系。公开财务指标主要包括六项,从不同维度反映了公司规模、资本结构、偿债能力、盈利状况、管理状况和股东情况。通过分析结果发现,若干财务指标与上市公司的股价波动性都有显著的相关关系,大部分符合预期及常识。有一些财务指标与上市公司的股价波动性长时期内表现出稳定、显著的关系。文中尝试探讨了造成这种相关性的因素。     

基于CNN-MD的军用电站健康状态评估方法

基于健康状态评估的军用电站预先维修对提高其可靠性、安全性有着重要意义,采用基于CNN-MD的评估方法,对军用电站健康状态进行评估。建立CNN军用电站健康状态识别模型,通过用不同的状态样本训练模型,可使模型识别和输出健康状态类别;再引入MD算法,计算不同状态下样本与健康样本的MD距离,并将其归一化为健康指数,即可进一步量化军用电站健康评价结果。以某型军用电站人工模拟不同健康状态的工况获取实验数据,通过模型能对正常、退化和注意三种状态进行有效区分,并得到量化评价健康指数0.6为正常状态的临界阈值,0.6以下即为退化以下状态的具体量化评估值,验证了所提方法的有效性。该方法通过CNN和MD结合,可实现军用电站健康状态定性与定量评估目的,为开展预先维修提供依据。     

生产函数在土地质量指标体系中的应用研究--以河北省冀州市为例

国内外学者对于土地质量指标体系的研究由来以久,或者从土地的自然属性入手,或者从土地的经济属性着眼。文章借助生产函数,把土地的自然属性和经济属性相结合,模拟土地质量因子和土地总产出之间的函数关系,选择最优的拟合,得出特定区域的土地质量指标体系,并以冀州市为例,简单分析了其应用和存在的问题。