Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

绿色工艺创新扩散波动对经济增长的冲击

本文构建了一个两部门DSGE模型,同时考虑了创新扩散的一般规律(“S型扩散”)与企业绿色技术创新扩散的独特作用(节能作用和减排作用)。基于人口老龄化的预测,模拟随着企业绿色技术创新扩散的波动,经济系统所做出的响应。结果表明：经济变量对于企业绿色技术创新扩散的波动呈现出不同的响应路径,其中资本存量的响应具有滞后性；资本报酬率为首的相关经济变量对于正向冲击的响应出现了“翘尾效应”。最后,本文给出了稳定、正向引导市场预期和在资本市场采取预调机制的政策建议。     

人力资源专员的素质要求

本文选择北方某区域型中心城市5个月的相关平面招聘广告，采用非介入性研究的方法进行内容分析和数据统计，从而发掘当前人力资源专员素质要求的实质。最后，构建创建与变革时期人力资源专员的素质模型，并对该期人力资源专员的素质要求提出若干建议。     

知识型服务贸易与经济增长

在罗默、格罗斯曼和赫尔普曼知识国际流动增长模型的基础上，比较分析了在知识国际流动的情况下，没有知识型服务贸易和有知识型服务贸易的经济增长差异，指出了知识型服务贸易对消除知识和技术在国际间的重复研发，提高长期创新率和经济增长率的重要作用，并就加快我国知识型服务贸易的发展提出了政策建议。     

基于知识理论的企业成长路径选择机制研究

从效率分析的角度对企业成长路径进行研究,基于知识特性剖析了企业成长的路径选择机制,并对企业成长的路径选择提出了建议。     

Externalities,Cross-Sectoral Spillovers and Productivity Growth

We provide an interpretation of the productivity dynamics in the manufacturing sector based on the idea of the thick market externality à la Diamond. An econometric model has been estimated which allows to disentangle the long run effects of these trading externalities from those of internal economies of scale and of aggregate industry-level economies. The results obtained—based on a cointegrated system of non-linear-error-correction equations—confirm the hypothesis that the trading externality matters. Moreover, our findings point out that the emphasis generally posited both on internal and external economies of scale is not justified.     

Intraday Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Diversified World Stock Indices

This paper proposes an approach to the intraday analysis of diversified world stock accumulation indices. The growth optimal portfolio (GOP) is used as reference unit or benchmark in a continuous financial market model. Diversified portfolios, covering the world stock market, are constructed and shown to approximate the GOP, providing the basis for a range of financial applications. The normalized GOP is modeled as a time transformed square root process of dimension four. Its dynamics are empirically verified for several world stock indices. Furthermore, the evolution of the transformed time is modeled as the integral over a rapidly evolving mean-reverting market activity process with deterministic volatility. The empirical findings suggest a rather simple and robust model for a world stock index that reflects the historical evolution, by using only a few readily observable parameters. Mathematics Subject Classification: (1991) primary 90A12, secondary 60G30,62P20 JEL Classification: G10, G13     

公共投资与私人投资在我国农业增长中的作用及关系研究

在我国农业投资比重面临不断下降的形势下,本文考察了1985-2002年间我国农业投资对农业产出增长的作用,并进一步分析了农业公共投资与私人投资之间的关系,结果表明,农业投资对我国农业增长具有重要作用,农业公共投资与私人投资之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,并且二者存在单向的因果关系.在此基础上,对结果进行了分析并给出了相应的政策含义.     

The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth

We discuss the role of omitted variables in the long run empirical modeling of the Italian government growth based on a Wagner's Law framework. We identify a non-spurious long-run relationship between general government expenditure and domestic product only when our Wagner's Law model is enhanced by a measure of bureaucratic power, as a supply-side variable, and by the ratio of local to state expenditure, as an institutional factor that captures the division of competencies between local and central government in allocating public expenditure. This result is independent from the Wagner's Law specification chosen. The persistence profile analysis shows a slow adjustment to equilibrium for the estimated government growth relationship following system-wide shocks, pointing to rigidities and complex functioning of the public sector.     

Pollution Externalities in a Model of Endogenous Fertility and Growth

An endogenous growth model with human capital formation, pollution caused by production of consumption goods, and endogenous fertility decisions made by altruistic agents with infinite horizons is presented. Consequences for optimal policy of modelling fertility as an explicit decision variable are examined. Because ordinary lump-sum transfers to individuals are no longer neutral, either revenue from a pollution tax must be redistributed to dynasties (working as an implicit tax on child births), or lump-sum transfers must be supplemented with an explicit fertility tax. Alternatively, the government can avoid distortions of the fertility decisions by maintaining an appropriate public debt. When abatement is highly productive, it can be optimal to subsidize fertility in order to increase total production.